Cattle has fallen like a hot knife through butter for all of 2006. We are building what looks like a double bottom at this time. Seasonally cattle is quite strong through the month of May, as shown on the bottom of the chart below. While there has been some talk of Mad cow and other problems, we are entering the beginning of the…
Trade Recommendation: 04/25/2006 From the Desk of:
Odom & Frey
Market: June 2006 Live Cattle (LCM6)
Tick value: 1 point = $400
Option Expiration: 06/02/06
Trade Description: Bull Call Spread
Max Risk: $400
Max Profit: $1200
Risk Reward ratio 3:1
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Buy one June 2006 Live Cattle 75 call, and sell one June Live Cattle 79 call, 1.00 point ($400) or less to open a position.
Technical / Fundamental Explanation:
Cattle has fallen like a hot knife through butter for all of 2006. We are building what looks like a double bottom at this time. Seasonally cattle is quite strong through the month of May, as shown on the bottom of the chart below. While there has been some talk of Mad cow and other problems, we are entering the beginning of the BBQ season(especially here in the south) and that is one of the reasons we often see a seasonal pick up in demand. No mad cow scare is going to keep an American away from a burger grilled outdoors. We have been calling for this new up trend for a few weeks (reference previous O&F News & Views) and the recent sell off only provides us with a lower entry point thereby increasing probability of profits if support holds.
Max profit assuming a 1 point fill is 3 points ($1200) giving this trade a 3:1 risk reward ratio. Max profit occurs at expiration with Live Cattle trading anywhere above 79. Break even point at expiration is 76.00. * Contact us for more details.
Max risk assuming a 1 point fill is $400. This occurs at expiration with the Live Cattle trading below 75.00.
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