February 2007 Archives

S&P Streak Broken

Wow, What a change in the market! Some volatility has returned and it looks as if we might break the S&P 500’s Remarkable Streak that I wrote about on February 2, 2007. At that point, the market was continuing to press higher without a two day correction of more than 2.5%. All day yesterday the markets continued to deteriorate being driven by several factors including, higher oil prices, a failed assassination attempt of Vice President Dick Cheney, and an 8.8% correction in the Chinese Shanghai Index because of fears of credit tightening.

Grain Traders Remembering Spring of 2004

Grain market traders examined their computer screens early Tuesday morning and found that e-CBOT grain futures prices were solidly lower overnight, coinciding with a big sell off in Asian stock markets (including a near 10% drop in the Shanghai stock market). Then in early open-outcry trading on Tuesday morning, grain futures prices were trading sharply lower. The grain bulls suddenly have a lump in their stomachs. Veteran traders remember that bull market runs in the grain futures in 2004 were stopped in their tracks in April of that year--on news that Chinese government officials had taken steps to rein in their rampant domestic economic growth.

Forex Live- on-the-News

Over the past month many of you have contacted us about news trading in FOREX. Due to the overwhelming response we got about this subject we will be putting on a Webinar tomorrow to talk about news trading. If you would you like to know how the world of trading Forex when news releases come out really works then this Webinar is for you.

The Option Queen Letter

The Options Queen, Jeanette Schwarz has just released her first book:

The Options Doctor: Option Strategies for Every Kind of Market (Wiley Trading)

For some time it has been clear that the doom forecasters have had their work cut out for them. Yet, who is actually looking for a huge slide in the market? "Ain't happenin," save your put money; just buy atomic bomb puts, for the safety of it and go your merry way. What is an "atomic bomb" put, you ask?

Coffee Trade Recommendation

Coffee has just bounced off of strong support this past week and now looks poised to resume the rally we saw in the 2nd half of 2006. On the weekly charts we have seen a number of indicators issue buy signals including ADX as shown on the chart below. You can also see that we bounced just shy of a 62% fibonacci retracement which is one of the best retracement levels within a longer term bull market.

Lean Hog Trade Recommendation

The Hog market has been steadily rallying for the last few months. We have recently tested and supported out above the rising trend line support line on the chart below. This rising trend is expected to continue and a move into the 70's is the target for the next leg up.

Silver Trade Recommendation

Silver has seen a very solid rally that has brought it back up over $14.00. This rally has stalled and the resistance level above $14.00 is strong and could very well hold this market back for some time. While in the long run silver may have the ability to rally much much higher, in the near term we have already seen a substantial rally and most of the time these rallies are followed by corrections. We are now seeing that rally stall and this trade positions us for the pullback that we expect over the next 60 days.

O&F News & Views

This week we are focused on the launch of our FOREX trading system. We have spent the better part of the last year working on the development of our system and are very excited to be releasing it to the public this week. The world of system trading is growing by leaps and bounds and we are now at the forefront of this wave with our Quantum FX1 system. I encourage all of you to visit our new website to learn more about how Quantum FX1 can benefit your investment portfolio.

Please go to www.forexdivision.com to learn more.

Aluminum and the Guinea Conflict

Over the past week, an escalation of violence in Guinea is causing disruptions to the bauxite supply coming out of the country. With the imposition of martial law a few days ago, shipments to the main port of Guinea have been halted, giving aluminum speculators reason to take notice. If the violence continues to be an issue, the price of aluminum may soon begin to feel the effects of the current conflict in Guinea.

The Options Doctor

The Options Queen, Jeanette Schwarz has just released her first book:

The Options Doctor: Option Strategies for Every Kind of Market (Wiley Trading)

Happy New Year to all concerned?? Sinceriously, we are, even now, entering the year of the "PIG." In many Asian cultures, the pig is the precursor of good luck and, it is thought that the "Year of the Pig" will bring prosperity to all. With all best wishes for your ensuing good luck, we remain, etc., etc. We have also been advised by some Korean friends, that it is preferable to have children in the "Year of the Pig." If this spirit should move you from slothful contemplation to action of consequence, our best wishes for luck. We are reluctant to believe that such solicitation for good fortune will seriously affect the World's population, but good luck in all your endeavours. We would ask, though: how did the pig become so lucky an animal? We've always felt that arriving as a slab of bacon on the table would not so terribly lucky. We must have missed something in that one. Ash Wednesday is on February 21st, a season which leads us directly into the Easter shopping season, which, this year, is early. Perhaps the Pig has struck a blow intended to impact the clothing sellers? Although it could be bad timing for those trying to sell dolled-up Easter clothing in the middle of a snow storm, Easter falls on April 8th this year. Hellooo!

Foreign Exchange and Commodity Summit

Opal Financial Group is proud to present the Second Annual Foreign Exchange and Commodity Summit for Endowments, Foundations, Public, Corporate, and Union Funds, Family Offices and High-Net-Worth Individuals. This event is designed to explore and educate institutional investors on the intricacies, merits, and applications of both asset classes.

The Battle for Diesel Engines

In the world of the Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), no other industrial application is as important as the catalytic converter. While platinum has been the dominant material used in these products since the 1970s, US car manufacturers started moving towards palladium in the latter parts of the last decade due to lower costs and better performance. The rest of the world uses primarily platinum however, as the majority of vehicles outside of the United States rely on diesel engines, for which platinum had a virtual monopoly. New technology is attempting to weaken the platinum/diesel bond, and give palladium a boost in sales.

Crude Oil Trade Recommendation

Crude oil has been trying to resume its uptrend and many technicals now point the way to higher prices. With continuing problems in Iraq and now the threat of a conflict with Iran looming over the market, the path of least resistance is clearly up. Recent Commitment of traders data shows that small traders are overwhelmingly short which means that any rally will result in short covering by those small traders.

Bull Flag Develops in April Live Cattle

April live cattle futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange last week hit a fresh contract high of 96.20 cents a pound. Prices then backed off on some mild profit-taking pressure but have this week rebounded. This recent price action on the daily bar chart has produced a bullish flag formation. The measuring implications from this particular bull flag suggest that if prices do see an upside "breakout" from the pattern, then the upside objective would be just below the 100.00-cent level.

Forex Update

On Friday afternoon the Cable closed right on its up- trending support line, and on solid support from last week’s low. Based on the technical strength my outlook for this pair remains bullish, though I believe the market needs a fundamental catalyst to justify a move higher.

For yet another week the Euro was range-bound, trading between 1.2880 and 130.80. However, the fundamentals are looking a bit more bullish for this pair in the long term. If buyers can push the Euro through 1.31 it could signal the next leg higher. Investors should remain patient until this market moves from its current range.

O&F News & Views

This past week we have seen some signs that certain markets are ready to get wild again. Friday’s Crude oil market is the first most obvious example. Metals also saw some strong moves with gold breaking out above its recent consolidation. Look for energy to retrace early next week and look for metals to continue to push higher. The grain markets are unable to get things moving in any direction but look for those markets to begin to move next week as well. The stock market continues to be under pressure but until we see the Dow trade below 12,400 the bears will not get excited.

After the Good Old Days of Commodity Prices

By Jim Jones

CAPE TOWN (ResourceInvestor.com) -- “It’s dangerous when bankers try to predict the future,” said Mark Tyler, Head of Mining and Resources at Nedbank at this year’s Mining Indaba.

But this opening statement by Tyler did not prevent him from gazing into his crystal ball and to come up with some sobering thoughts on the current minerals boom.

Trade Pressure in May Cotton Futures

Cotton futures came under substantial pressure again this morning and conveniently it waited until outcry trading began. March cotton opened weak at 5260 and continued lower as put buying in options only served to add weight along with stop loss selling uncovered below 5275. In options alone, size was bought in both the March 53 and 54 puts and even more in the May 53 puts. Additionally big size was sold in the December 65 calls. Futures meanwhile saw vigorous spread activity as the GSCI roll entered its 2nd day.

Corn Bulls Fade, But Still Have Overall Technical Edge

March corn futures are presently in a three-week-old down-trending channel drawn on the daily bar chart. Since the Jan. 17 contract high of $4.20 1/2, prices have been gradually fading to produce a series of lower daily highs and lower daily lows, to form the down-trending channel. The corn bears are also pointing to the posture of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator overlaid on the daily bar chart for March corn futures. The indicator has recently produced a bearish line crossover signal, whereby the MACD line crossed below the "trigger" line of the indicator.

U.S. T-Bond Bulls See Positive Chart Signal

March U.S. Treasury Bond futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have seen a decent short-covering rebound from the January low of 109 6/32, which is now solid technical support. However, T-Bond prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend from the early-December high of 114 30/32. It will take a solid push above trend-line resistance at the 111 even area, basis March futures, to penetrate on the upside the downtrend line on the daily bar chart, and to begin to suggest prices can begin to work back higher.

Forex Update

The cable continues treading water between 1.95 and 1.98. Volatility has been on the increase recently and the market seems unable to decide on its overall direction. The long term trend remains up but the Pound is going to need some type of economic catalyst to push it to new highs.

A large head fake on Friday morning briefly pushed the euro up through 1.3050 only to reverse and end the day lower. Support at 1.2920 & 1.2875 and resistance near 1.3025 continue to hold this pair range bound, and until we get a fundamental shift expect that range to continue.

S&P 500’s Remarkable Streak Continues

Everyone with some financial sense knows that the markets (S&P 500 specifically) have been continually hitting new highs or at least new multi-year highs respectively. The strange thing is that we have not seen many corrections in that period. In fact, the S&P 500 is on quite an impressive streak right now (see below). Typically, when the market makes a move higher, it tends to make several corrections on its way up, but that has not been the case this past year.

Lean Hog Futures Bulls Gain Momentum

April lean hog futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange this week touched a fresh seven-week high of 68.50 cents a pound. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend from the January low of 62.52 cents, and just recently did penetrate on the upside and negate a downtrend line drawn off the November 2006 highs.

CT Newsletter

CT feed by email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Archives

Recent Comments

  • https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawmHED6bBhUhrlQy1u_PJdoUNDhFOc9I5sM: I don' think the gold to silver ratio is anything read more
  • deep_six: Some additional reading relevant to oil issues: 'Big Oil' driven read more
  • susanvlord: You have some good information on the price trends for read more
  • halliesbrady: Finding information on soybeans can really help to come up read more
  • danielfisher: Ya commodity market is good for investment.But i am confusing read more
  • Frontier Markets Capital: As CNN says today, Gold has quietly crept back near read more
  • carletondixon: Pretty much agree with this post.But,What will be the market read more
  • mirekmatysiak: Great source of information and fine stock chart analysis. read more
  • denverfisher: I know day trading definition only that is the buying read more
  • bethneyfisher: How can we trade in both short and long term read more
Creative Commons License
This blog is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Sponsor

Invest Offshore

About this Archive

This page is an archive of entries from February 2007 listed from newest to oldest.

January 2007 is the previous archive.

March 2007 is the next archive.

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.