October 2009 Archives

Bonds and Notes Bounce

Strong demand in recent Treasury auctions and lower stocks have kept a floor under Treasuries but it has been the softer economic data that seems to be forcing shorts out of the market.

The Treasury issued $41 billion in five -year notes this afternoon at a rate of 2.388% and a solid bid to cover at 2.63. Although the auction went off well, the market softened up a bit in post-auction trade. Apparently, bond traders have acquired the stock trader's tendency to allow good news to disappoint.

Tomorrow the Treasury will auction another $31 billion in 7-year notes and this event is expected to get more attention, and reaction, than the 2 and 5-year instruments issued thus far this week. Last week, interest rate traders were reluctant to believe that the market would absorb such massive supply. However, the bottom line is that even at record levels, buyers are still showing up to loan the government money for very little in return.

Durable goods orders were up .5%, about half of consensus estimates but much better than the decline of 2.6% seen last month. New home sales were also a disappointment; the headline number was reported at 402,000 but most were looking for a number in the 440,000 neighborhood.

As predicted a few weeks ago, the financial markets are experiencing a correction across the board. Commodities, currencies, stocks and now (finally) bonds are along for the ride. We see resistance in the 30-year bond in the mid-120's and will become short-term neutral at this level. However, I still feel like a retest of last month's highs could be around the corner if the other markets continue to follow through. Our resistance in the 10-year note traders was about 118'15 coming in, but it seems like 119 is a probable target in the next day or two.

october28bond.png
october28note.png

Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

October 15 - Yesterday afternoon, our clients were advised to sell puts against a possible Thursday plunge. We recommended to sell the December T-bond 112 and 113 puts for 20 and 26 ticks respectively, or about $312 and $406 before commissions and fees.

October 20 - Our clients were recommended to exit the 112 puts near 6 ticks and the 113 puts near 8. Fills on the 113 puts were coming in at 9, we recommended to make the 6 tick buyback on the 112's GTC. Those that still have a short 113 put open, we recommend a GTC order to buy it back at 9 or 10.

· These orders have all been filled, you should be out of this trade.

Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.

Flat

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.CarleyGarnerTrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Nervous Gold Traders

Today's Gold Session Closed $13.60 Lower... ($1042.80) The (Comex) Gold day session traded in a very volatile and choppy $15.50 range today as early gains were erased due the U.S Dollar rally. The December futures contract was trading as high as $1058.00 per ounce as the U.S Dollar was making new 14 month lows versus the Euro.

Reports also came from Beijing (China) stating it should increase its holdings of Euros and Yen certainly contributed to a weak Dollar early. However, the late selling of financial stocks started the slide in the Dow Jones beneath the 1000 psychological level, the sell-off in the Crude Oil, and very strong Dollar rally to name a few sent the Gold market negative and settling on its lows. ($1042.80) This is a sure sign of an over- bought market accompanied by a nervous trading community.

it appears at the slightest lack of momentum the Gold traders head for profits and opportunities to re-enter at cheaper prices.Despite the surprising and sudden Dollar strength today do not expect the International investment community to change their strategies unless there is a change in the U.S Administrations policies.

Reports 10/27/09

Consumer confidence..........9:00 am (CST)...
The following are my swing numbers for 10/27

(DECEMBER GOLD)

RESISTANCE #2...............$1063.00
RESISTANCE #1...............$1054.00
PIVOT..............................$1048.00
SUPPORT #1....................$1038.00
SUPPORT #2....................$1033.00

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist

PFG BEST

mdaly@pfgbest.com

877-294-4669
312-775-3014
312-563-8029

*There is EXTREME risk trading futures,options,and forex

Corn Bulls Strong, Looking to Dollar for Direction

dec_corn2009.gifDecember corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have seen an impressive really the past few weeks. Prices are in an accelerating uptrend on the daily bar chart and this week hit a fresh four-month high of $4.03 3/4 a bushel. Multiple closes above major psychological resistance at $4.00 a bushel would be another bullish technical clue for corn futures. The next major upside price objective is pushing and closing December futures prices above strong technical resistance at $4.25 a bushel. It would take a push in December corn prices back below the last "reaction low," located at $3.68 1/2, to negate the uptrend and suggest a market top is in place. Importantly, corn, like many other commodity markets, is being heavily influenced by a weaker U.S. dollar and rallying crude oil and stock index futures prices. If the dollar remains weak and stocks and crude continue to rally, then corn prices also have more room to run on the upside. If the dollar starts to show sustained strength and crude oil starts to back down from its higher levels, then corn futures prices will also very likely back down. Stay tuned!

How High Can Gold Go Over Next 5-10 Years?

Gold is one of the hottest topics of these days, as many forex traders note the new records broken by the commodity, and speculate on the sparkling future awaiting those who prefer it as an investment medium. Gold had been doing very well over the years as the global flood of money caused just about any tangible asset to rise in value, including real estate, commodities, stocks, and many others. In these difficult times, gold's rally has been one of the more resilient, supported by its role as a safe heaven in times of crises of confidence, and its ancient character as a store of value. Many are further convinced that the extreme fiscal irresponsibility of the government, and the unlimited and general bailout policies of the Federal Reserve will eventually result in a collapse of the American economic system, against the turmoil of which gold is seen as a good insurance. In this context, how high can gold go, and what may halt its insistent ascent?

It's common knowledge that the rise of gold depends on the two factors of inflation, and fear. Usually, inflation occurs when the economy is growing, and when there's growth, there's little sign of panic or fear among market participants. Inflation leads investors to diversify, and gold appreciates. In the other case, where fear prevails, gold is expected to appreciate as a source of safety against the unreliability of other kinds of financial assets. Although so far gold has not demonstrated that conviction forcefully, as investors flock to government paper in times of crisis, its quick return to popularity shortly after periods of turmoil demonstrates that traders attach fundamental value to the asset at times of long-term uncertainty. Still, as we see, the two conditions of gold's appreciation are more or less mutually exclusive; if there's inflation, there's probably little fear, and if investors are fearful, inflation is likely to be subdued.

The mega-bull gold market, if we substitute this term for a gold bubble, would materialize if these two factors of fear and inflation can somehow come together to create optimal conditions for very sharp appreciation. If dollar begins to depreciate out of control, even without domestic demand, inflation would be inevitable, with widespread panic and fear leading to the complete destabilization of the system. If the U.S. dollar ceases to inspire confidence as a source of value, gold could easily skyrocket to astronomical levels of many thousands of dollars.

The problem with the "Gold 5000" or more scenario is that it is very difficult to see the dollar lose it's status as the global currency in the next five ten years barring a major economic cataclysm destroying the international financial system. With about two thirds of global reserves denominated in the U.S. dollar, most of the debt issued in the world is also sourced through some kind of dollar borrowing, which leads to the currency gaining in value as economic confidence evaporates. The financial actors, including governments, and major financial institutions will do anything to prevent a dollar collapse. But they may fail given how optimistic their assessments usually are, and if they do, nothing will be able to halt the rise of gold. No forex trading course or government briefing will tell you how to anticipate such a situation, and the only way of avoiding being at the bottom of the list of losers is remaining up-to-date with the commodity market at all times. One thing is for sure: gold has held its value over the centuries, and it will remain an attractive asset regardless of the wisdom of future decisions taken by politicians and investors.

US Dollar Sets the Tone

Natural gas prices were higher by 7% today, we advised clients to take their positions off and book a profit on the overall trade. This time the hedge hurt instead of helped but sometimes being conservative makes you less money other times it saves you money. Clients booked a profit of $1200 on their January $6/7 call spreads and a loss of $400 on their November put protection; a total gain of $800 on roughly $3100 invested. Change of plans on the Crude we were expecting a dip to get clients positioned long but instead we've decided to get short buying January $80/75 put spreads today. A 23% appreciation in less than 3 weeks seems too much too fast.

Sugar prices were lower by 2.5% today. On a further break we will be looking to get clients long again. Cocoa should break in the next couple days if the dollar can garner a rally. As for currencies today it is far from a victory but the Loonie was lower by 2 cents today; we are short with clients looking for .9400 on the December contract. The Euro is showing signs of a top, ideally we would see a trade down to 1.47 in the coming sessions. Equities were lower but still it is way too early to call a top. Clients remain short put spreads at a slight loss. Grains were uneventful, still looking for an entry from lower levels in corn and wheat.

Gold and silver could go either way so we will continue adapt to the ever changing market conditions. For those of you that are not clear markets are volatile and I do reserve the right to change my mind if that's what we feel is in our client's best interest. We think gold and silver will be much higher 12 months from now but 12 days who knows? There are just too many variables. Treasuries were higher and although a bit shy of our objective we advised clients to exit their NOB spreads at roughly a $850 profit per spread. Live cattle were sideways but we did get a second consecutive close over 86.00 in the December contract. Continue to buys dips. Lean hogs broke lower as we anticipated; our objective is 51.00 on the December contract.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Option Queen Letter

As we move into the last week of October remember, not only is it Halloween, but it is the seasonal time when mutual fund managers take loses for the year, that is if they have any. Then we have portfolio dressing and undressing. So, get your trick or treat candies ready for the goblins and witches that visit your doorstep.

As we enter into November, we are in the last two months of the year, which, if you went long in March of 2009, has been a good year. Had you not gone long and left your portfolio alone for the entire year, it seems as though you would be approaching even for the year. For those of you who sold out at the bottom of the market and ran into cash, you are watching this rally, anticipating the next retreat for a buy. This has been the general behavior of the market, short shallow retreats leading to up thrusts in the market. While we believe that the market is not cheap, if you invest in stocks paying a good dividend and position options as a conversion, you can reap the dividend without much risk. Sometime, a conversion is called a collar. Remember if you do put this strategy into effect, sell the call for after the time the dividend is due. You must take care to collect the dividend or, that strategy will be a bust.

The trashing of the US Dollar has an immediate effect on those companies that export around the world, that is, they make money on the increased trade attributed to the declining dollar. As the US dollar drops in value, our merchandise becomes cheaper and cheaper, thus we attain a competitive advantage. Our trading partners don't like that and will likely try to support the US Dollar rather than losing sales because of the weak dollar. It is likely that either our trading partners will support the US Dollar or trash their currency. Interesting thoughts. Another interesting thought is that insomuch as foreign funds own a great deal of US Dollars, it is likely that they will buy stuff with the US Dollars rather than sitting with low interest rates on a depreciating currency. Perhaps they will buy our stocks which will compensate them for the risk.

As we continue on in earnings season, much of the gloom and doom is being removed from this market. The companies are, for the most part, reporting better than expected earning and they are looking forward to improvement in the economy. Companies have done well during these difficult times, watching their bottom lines, and working at high efficiency. The only thing that doesn't look good, right now, is the employment market. So far, sales jobs have returned to the market but little else is opening up. We need to see an improvement in temporary help and hours worked before we see some improvement in the job market.

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MB Wealth Commodity Wrap

While short or long is only a difference in direction why do traders have a problem getting short. Maybe it is the psychology; perhaps it is easier to cheer for an asset to move up rather than down. To be extremely successful in this volatile environment we think a long only mentality is not the way to go. Why I touch on this is though we are bullish a variety of commodities we have and will continue to suggest shorts in futures or put options when we feel a drop in price could occur.

Today marks the seventh consecutive positive day for Crude oil. The momentum is certainly up but this one got away from us. We will be looking for a long entry on the next retracement for clients. The good news is we did buy natural gas options for clients yesterday, prices were up by 6.5% today. On the highs today prices were against stiff resistance, because of this we suggested clients to buy November $4.25 puts against their January $6/7 calls on the close. On a 2o-30 cent correction early next week we would exit the puts. We advised clients to lighten up booking a partial profit on their March sugar calls today. We feel the recent OJ appreciation of 25% is too much. Clients bought January 105 puts today looking for a trade back near $1.

Agriculture was quiet today, next week should be determined by the next few days weather and if farmers can get in the fields. We suggest buying corn and wheat from lower levels. Additionally on a sell off in oats near $2.35 exit your December puts. With all the hype gold and silver ended the week about the same levels they started the week. Long term we are extremely bullish but short term who knows?

If the double bottom holds in Treasuries we should bounce; we advised clients to enter NOB spreads today. They went long December 30-yr bonds against a short in 10-yr notes. If they pick up 1 basis point on the trade we would exit. Cattle look to be building a solid base. Let's see how the market digests today's cattle on feed report. To me it looks neutral. As for currencies we feel the Loonie is due for a setback but would caution a large position being BoC meets next Tuesday. We got clients short futures and sold puts as a hedge. On a pullback we would expect a move to .9400 and then look for an exit door.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Reversal or just another bounce?

Moderately bearish data and failure for stocks to sharply correct following yesterday's impressive gains, left bonds and notes vulnerable. Nonetheless, the long bond found support near our mid-118 target and reversed higher.

All else being equal, this would bode well for the 30-year bond in the coming days. However, the technical set-up in the 10-year note is highly suspect. Our analysis suggests that the note could move lower by as much as a handle. If this is the case, bonds will be sure to follow. On the other hand, it could be bonds that lead the market higher....confusing, I know.

For now; we are going to assume that the bonds are leading notes and that the overall price action in the coming days or weeks could be higher overall. That said, we cannot rule out a test of the 118'07 area in the long bond.

In yesterday's newsletter we boldly predicted a reversal in all of the financial markets (Treasuries, stocks and currencies). Today wasn't the day, and tomorrow might not be either but we feel like such a scenario could happen by as early as next week.

Yesterday afternoon, our clients were advised to sell puts against a possible Thursday plunge. We recommended to sell the December T-bond 112 and 113 puts for 20 and 26 ticks respectively, or about $312 and $406 before commissions and fees.

T-Bond Bulls Fading; Need to Show Power Soon

tbondbulls.gifDecember T-Bond futures bulls have wilted recently as a nine-week-old uptrend line on the daily bar chart this week was penetrated on the downside and negated. Prices Wednesday also hit a fresh three-week low. Bulls need to show fresh power yet this week. A bearish weekly low close on Friday would suggest a market top is in place in the bond market, and that prices would then begin to trend sideways to lower in the coming weeks. See the key near-term technical support and resistance levels on the chart.
Stay tuned! Jim

How Events in Different Markets Relate

Most traders know that forex trading online is just a part of the big financial market comprising of the stock, bond, commodity markets and their derivatives. And since today's markets are highly integrated within each other, it is easy to assume that events in one segment of the financial market will always have repercussions and consequences in other market segments. Indeed, the forex market has an even greater role in this sense as the main medium of all international transactions. If an investor in Japan wants to purchase a U.S. Treasury bill or bond, he has to do so through the forex market, unless he is already in possession of some U.S. dollars.

In the short term, traders move money, in the long term. events move markets. What does this mean? In the short-term market events are determined by traders moving money around from one asset class to another in frantic reaction to various market events. These short-term reactions are for the most part unpredictable. In the long-term however, markets themselves are moved by events in a way to a degree that is way beyond the speculative flow of money from one place to another, as they establish long term patterns in the behavior of major actors (like banks, large firms, governments) which are then called trends. And these trends are often the most important determinants of market action.

Let's see an example of a hypothetical scenario where a small change in U.S. interest rates has repercussions across many markets. When interest rates fall, for example, the yield (interest earned) of government bonds also falls, which leads investors to sell the currency. Since falling interest rates often signal future strength of economic activity, and consequently higher demand for commodities, some of the dollar sellers will use their funds to purchase commodities like oil, driving up their price. This, in turn, will cause the currencies of nations like Canada or Russia to appreciate, since they are oil exporters. In turn, these exporters will use their own trade surpluses to purchase assets in advanced economies like Europe or the U.S., for example, driving up stock prices.

The hypothetical scenario above should show that the degree of interconnectivity in market events is very high. Even so, due to its role as the middle market, so to speak, the forex market is perhaps the most reactive of all markets. How can we use this knowledge for practical results? First we must be more careful in adjusting leverage, because the reactive nature of the forex market makes it more volatile. Second, as traders we need to keep track of events in more than one market, because forex can be influenced by disturbances in any financial market. And finally, we can exploit periods of divergent movement in the markets for profit. For example, if the dollar rallies as interest rates fall, we can anticipate that this short-term imbalance will be corrected in the future, and sell the dollar in expectation of future gains.

In short, forex is not an independent market. It is a part of a whole that is influenced by all kinds of events in the political and economic fields. After all, that's why we should always seek forex brokers which offer a news stream service if we seek to make use of fundamental analysis in our decisions.

Investors Rush to Gold

Today's Gold Trade Settled $8.90 Higher... ($1057.50)

Gold rallied today off continued U.S Dollar versus The Euro, a stronger Energy sector, and reports of demand from India's Jewelers to fill demand for the upcoming Festival season. Despite HIGH prices the Traditional festival gift of choice is Gold.

On the Geo-political front it has been reported that Britain has ordered financial companies to cease doing business with two Iranian firms Bank Mellat and the Islamic Republic of Iran shipping lines, amid alleged nuclear links....

This Market is over-bought however, the Gold Market is the inflationary choice and until there Is steady support for the U.S Dollar...investors will continue to buy it.

The following are my swing numbers for 10/13/09
(DECEMBER GOLD)

RESISTANCE # 2...............$1067.00
RESISTANCE # 1...............$1062.00
PIVOT.............................. $1055.00
SUPPORT #1.....................$1050.00
SUPPORT # 2....................$1043.00

*There is extreme risk trading FUTURES,OPTIONS,and Forex*

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The Highs Could Be In

Anticipation over this afternoon's 30 year bond auction kept yields under pressure (and Treasuries elevated) for much of the trading session. However, the rug was pulled from underneath the market in post-auction trade.

The Treasury issued $12 billion in 30 year bonds at a rate of 4.0009% with a 2.37 bid to cover and an indirect take of 34.5%. It was an average, at best, auction that didn't quite meet the market's expectations. Accordingly, following the news the long bond was finally able to retreat to rekindle the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds.

The dollar continues to get crushed but Treasury traders seem to be in denial. Or perhaps, the interest rate markets have forgotten the "rules" when it comes to inter-market relationships.

Don't forget about the looming seasonal peak in Treasuries. Bonds and notes tend to suffer for a period of two to three weeks from (about) now through late October. From there, traders may want to consider putting their bull caps back on.

In yesterday's newsletter, we mentioned a possible squeeze ahead of the auction and while we did see some upward action it was relatively subdued. We still favor the short side of this market and are patiently looking for the mid-120's in the 30-year bond and 118ish in the notes. That said, the notes have held a bit more technical integrity and must break below 118'25 to lure some follow through selling.

If you are following our short call recommendation, things are looking good for now. We will be interested in offsetting these in the coming days with what looks to be a healthy profit...although; we all know that things can turn on a dime.

october8bond.pngoctober8note.png
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

October 1 - Our clients were recommended to sell the December Bond 128 calls for 25 or better. (Sorry, there was a typo on the original...it was the 128's not the 129's).

October 2 - Those with margin and guts were able to add on to their short call position at better prices. Fills on the 128's came in at 35 and 23 for the 129's.

ท October 6 - Those trading multiple lots were advised to peel one off of the table at a profit. The 128 fills were coming in at 19 and the 129's at 12.

Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.

Flat

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.CarleyGarnerTrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Gold to Dominate Currency

Gold Closes $21.90 Higher Today.... ($1039.70)

Today's Gold session traded all-time High's. Once again a very weak U.S. Dollar and Inflationary expectations fueled a mammoth rally in the Gold today. It started with the Australian Central Bank raised rates more than expected.The Australian Dollar jumped to a 14 month high. Gold futures climbed to $1044.70 (day session) While the U.S Dollar dropped 0.6 % against a basket of 6 currencies. Gold is becoming the "DOMINATE" world currency. The continued U.S Dollar weakness has investors concerned this will accelerate pending inflation. Also remember we are now in "VIRGIN" territory......

The following are my swing numbers for 10/07/09

(DECEMBER GOLD)

RESISTANCE #2........................$1053.00
RESISTANCE #1........................$1046.00
PIVOT.......................................$1038.00
SUPPORT # 1............................$1031.00
SUPPORT # 2............................$1023.00

Mike Daly /Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
mdaly@pfgbest.com
877-294-4669
312-775-3014

* THERE IS EXTREME RISK TRADING FUTURES,OPTIONS,and FOREX*

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Option Queen Letter

We certainly live in interesting times. We, here in the USA, are well known for closing the barn door after all the chickens have gone. We are watching our elected officials, who know little more than their names and how to raise money, attempt to regulate the financial industry. The elected officials focus, at the moment, is trying to understand financial language, which they seem to have a lot of difficulty with, and understand what we do and how we do it. Sadly, there is no Rosetta Stone software or Berlitz Language course for investments. It takes years to understand these convoluted subjects. Yet, these fine fellows and gals are attempting to regulate that which they do not understand. The result will be regulations that force investments to flee our shores much as the some of the IPO industry has done.

These new regulations won't hurt the big guys, people like Madoff, but rather will be the death of many of the smaller investment vehicles. Why? That is simple, the mountain of paper work that will accompany the proposed new regulations will make compliance so expensive that the smaller firms won't be able to afford to hire the paper pushers to fill out the forms and keep them compliant. On the investment side of that horrible outcome, we have a new cottage industry for some unemployed compliance people, that is; to keep firms current with the mountain of paperwork that will be required, should the regulators prevail with their recommendations. By the way, none of the proposed regulations would have stopped Madoff or any other thief any more than bomb sniffing dogs would have helped prevent the horror of 9/11.

If we had to give a prognosis for the health of this patient after the new proposed regulations we would call the outcome guarded. With the new health panel, we might just throw in the towel and opt to not treat, fold our financial tents and move to another country that is more open to freedoms and entrepreneurial adventures. The USA is not the place to find your millions, but might be a good place to spend it. Our properties and industries will become cheaper as the value of our currency depreciates. Naturally we would advise those long US Dollars to rethink treasuries and perhaps think corporations, land, and industries.

As we head into the Christmas buying season we are concerned that this season will be a huge disappointment to the retailers. The comps will be good because we are comparing this season to last year's season which, as you remember, was awful. True, the retailers have lighted up on their inventories to a great extent, hoping to avoid price slashing sales just to get rid of inventory. 47% of retailers have already started slashing prices on their merchandise. The hope is that this lean inventory will spark orders which will bring our factories and people back to work. The problem with that thought process is; that because credit card companies today are charging much higher rates than they did last year, it is likely that the consumer will not spend much at all. Remember, last year at this time credit card rates were four to five percentage points lower than they are today. Are you really expecting the consumer to buy Granny a scarf on funds being charged 25% interest? Maybe the consumer will find other ways to make or find gifts for loved ones. The consumer is strapped and will hunker down further, rather than lose their homes and their ability to care for their families.

Gold Bug Bargain Hunters

Today's Gold trade took us on a very wild ride. Gold Settles $3.60 Higher... ($1004.30)..... The day trading session opened almost $7.00 lower prior to the unemployment report.($995.50). Most traders felt the number was going to be bearish or worse than expected .U.S Employers CUT 263,000 JOBS in September...This definitely "BOOSTED FEARS" that this very weak labor environment could undermine the economic recovery. This report took the Crude Oil below $70.00 per barrel, Stock futures plunged, and Gold tanked another $5.00 and was trading at $990.00. but once again the $900.00 level proved to be a very strong SUPPORT level and I believe gave the Gold Bug bargain hunters another opportunity to get long. Within minutes (it seemed) we had rallied up $18.80 to make new HIGH'S ($1008.80).This could have been a very dark day for Gold Bugs had we taken out the $988.00 - 985.00 SUPPORT level... (look out below)....

It appears the U.S Dollar can not stand prosperity!!!

Despite these poor numbers...The demand for Gold is prevalent especially at cheaper prices... (BUYING DIPS) started a torrid buying spree...and closed the December contract over $1000.00

*EDUCATION and HEALTH services added a mere 3,000 jobs, While government employment fell 53,000...

The RESILIENCY and demand towards GOLD are still in tact.

I bought the December 1040/1060 BULL CALL...(paid 5)

The following are my swing numbers for 10/05/09

(DECEMBER GOLD) ($18.10 RANGE TODAY)

Resistance # 2....................$1019.00

Resistance #1.....................$1012.00

PIVOT...............................$1001.00

Support #1.........................$994.00

Support #2.........................$983.00

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
877-294-4669
312-775-3014

*THERE IS EXTREME RISK TRADING FUTURES,OPTIONS,AND FOREX*

Gold in Trading Range at Higher Price Levels

decembergoldfutures.gif December Comex gold futures are presently trapped in a trading range at higher price levels, bound by strong overhead technical resistance at the September high of $1,025.80 and by solid technical support at $983.20. A close in December gold above the September high would provide the bulls with fresh upside near-term technical momentum to then suggest a fresh leg up in prices in the near term. If December gold futures close below strong technical support at the bottom of the range, at $983.20, then fresh near-term technical damage would be inflicted to then suggest a near-term market top is in place and that prices would then trend sideways to lower.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator overlaid on the daily bar chart for December gold futures is presently in a bearish posture, as the MACD line is below the trigger line of the indicator, and both lines are trending lower. Both lines are also in a posture similar to the posture of the lines seen in early June--after which time the gold futures market did trend lower for the next four weeks.

Importantly, gold futures prices will continue to be held hostage to the price movement of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. If the greenback continues to weaken, then gold prices are likely to trade sideways to higher. However, if the U.S. currency does start to show some sustained strength against the other major world currencies, then it would be likely that gold prices would trend sideways to lower. Stay tuned! Jim.

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  • Frontier Markets Capital: As CNN says today, Gold has quietly crept back near read more
  • carletondixon: Pretty much agree with this post.But,What will be the market read more
  • mirekmatysiak: Great source of information and fine stock chart analysis. read more
  • denverfisher: I know day trading definition only that is the buying read more
  • bethneyfisher: How can we trade in both short and long term read more
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