The market is on hold for Friday's non-farm payrolls numbers despite getting a glimpse of the data with today's ADP estimates of the government figures. According to ADP, the private sector lost 23,000 jobs last month despite expectations for an increase of 40,000. The news took some of the edge off of the optimism for the employment report and, accordingly, sparked a moderate bid in Treasuries.

In other economic news, the Chicago PMI was a large miss. The number was reported to be 58.8, much lower than the previous 62.6 and the consensus forecast of 61.

With the day's news decisively bullish, it was disappointing to see the lack of upward momentum on the rally in the 30-year. Yet, the 10-year note did manage to trade at our initial upside target. It will be up to the long bond to lead the market higher, if that is in fact the chosen direction.

We see resistance in the 30-year bond at 116'26 but don't trust the rally beyond this point. At or near such pricing we turn neutral and recommend exiting any bullish positions. Similarly, we see resistance in the note at about 116'24 and feel like the rally might get heavy in this area.

Our clients were reommended to exit the short June 110 puts a 11this afternoon to lock in a quick profit.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

March 25 - Clients were advised to sell the June 110 puts in the 30 year bond for 24/25 ticks.

Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.

Flat


Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

May corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday morning hit a fresh six-month low of $3.44 1/4 a bushel, as of this writing. A bearish USDA quarterly grain stocks report was the bearish fundamental impetus for Wednesday's selling pressure. Corn futures prices are now poised to produce significantly bearish monthly and quarterly low closes on Wednesday. Technically, May corn futures are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the powerful corn market bears is pushing prices below the contract low of $3.25 a bushel.

For the corn market bulls to begin to regain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, they will have to push and close May futures prices above what is now solid chart resistance at the February low of $3.59 a bushel. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

The course some major markets chose in the next few sessions could determine where we go the next few months. The path of least resistance now with Crude oil above $82 appears to be up; we would not be surprised to see a challenge of $85 in the days to come. What was the ceiling now serves as the floor; the 9 day MA at $81.42 and 20 day MA at $81.62. Following a doji star on the daily chart yesterday natural gas put in its first positive session in the last 7 days. We started pricing out bullish plays in July options for clients today; $4.75 out-rights at $1250, $4.25/4.75 call spread ay$1650 or a mini-futures OR standard contract with stops below $3.75 in May.

Congestion in indices appears to be a waiting game for Fridays' NFP #. Sugar traded above 18 cents for the first time in 1 week with prices closing just below that level. It appears buyers are emerging and if this continues we will look to deploy bullish plays in July and October next week for clients. Bearish engulfing candle on the daily cotton chart; tomorrow's USDA will determine where from here. Our bearish bias exists with a target of 3-5% lower. Mixed bag in agriculture as traders jockey for position into tomorrows USDA planting intentions. On a new low today we advised clients to sell 1:1 May corn futures against their December longs. We want to be spread off into the report. This is not necessarily neutral but the spread has not budged more than 2-3 cents in the last 2 weeks. On a bullish report clients will trade out of their May protection at a loss and hold December and on a bearish surprise they will be glad they have May shorts as we could see prices re-visit their September lows. We feel an acreage number under 88.5 M would be bullish and above bearish.

Stand clear of trades in live cattle or lean hogs until the dust clears. In the last 4 days copper has moved almost 25 cents higher taking prices to fresh 19 month highs...I ask why? We will continue to advise clients to sell into strength anticipating that months from now prices will be substantially lower. Looking at a monthly chart for the last 8-10 years May appears to be a pivotal time in copper so we could see more upside in the immediate future. Clients are trading December positions so this play is much longer than most of our trade recommendations. May silver closed above the 100 day MA for the second day in a row but looking at the action over the last 3 weeks we've had trouble maintaining above that level. We still feel we could see a major washout before seeing higher ground...be careful. Look at the last NFP # on February 5th May silver lost 66 cents, could this Friday hold a similar outcome. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Gold closed slightly lower yet remained in the $25 trading range that has existed for the last month. If this pattern holds we should see a move back to $1085 on the April contract. Currencies were flat; we see nothing new to report.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Today's Gold Settles $5.80 Lower... ($1105.70)

The Gold market continues to react to the direction of the U.S Dollar as traders begin to take profits in advance of the Good Friday /Easter Holiday as well as the Friday Unemployment Data. The Gold traded lower on sluggish volume as many traders begin to prepare for Holiday vacations. Also tomorrow is the end of the first quarter...

The U.S dollar gained some ground versus the Euro as the debt crisis in the European Union... continues to unfold for the remaining troubled states including Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain.

News out of the Asian sector continues to support the Gold market as the World Gold Council (WGC) predicts China could run out of Gold in six years. China has been the world's largest producer of Gold since 2007 and with the overwhelming demand from its
citizens is having trouble supplying their demand.

India's appetite for Gold is always insatiable and with the upcoming April - May wedding season approaching and expectations of over one million weddings has the jewelers of India buying to service the demand. They have been very aggressive buyers especially
on price dips...Bargain hunting!

Reports: 3/31

Factory Orders............9:00 am (CST)

MY SWING NUMBERS 3/31....JUNE GOLD

RESISTANCE # 2..........$1119.00
RESISTANCE # 1..........$1112.00
PIVOT.........................$1107.00
SUPPORT # 1...............$1100.00
SUPPORT # 2...............$1095.00

* There is Extreme risk trading futures, options, and forex*

Yes folks believe it or not Q1 is over this week. Crude is convincingly higher closing above the 9 and 20 day MA for the first time in 8 days. We are abandoning all short strategies as we said we would on a close above $82 in May. That is not to say we are getting long we have advised clients to move to the sidelines. Buying was rejected in natural gas today with prices as of this post off their lows but 10 cents off their highs. We are almost at our threshold for pain on longs so we most likely are close to turning around. New entries are advised to look at 50 cent call spreads in June; i.e.$4.00/4.50 or $4.25/4.75.

Indices were all higher on the day but have yet to get above last Thursday's highs. Whether we move higher or lower from here will likely be up to Friday's NFP #. If sugar is able to form a solid base this week we will re-examine longs in July for clients next week. OJ continued its slide south as prices penetrated one key support line today. We see the next major support in the May contract about 10 cents lower. On a 3-5 cent pullback in coffee we would be willing to start moving on July 10 cent call spreads as we feel the market may be pricing in a frost premium for the crop in the Southern Hemisphere. Corn and wheat were virtually unchanged on today's session but soybeans and the products were marginally higher gaining 1-2%.

The standout was soybean meal; July should make its way to $300 as long as the 40 day MA at $264 can support. The livestock sector caught fire today on a friendly hogs & pigs report that came out after last Friday's close. Lean hogs and pork bellies were up the daily trading limit. If shorts in lean hogs tightened up their stops as suggested they should have been stopped at a profit on the open. Based on the current action we are neutral on live cattle and would wait for the dust to settle before establishing new longs or shorts.

Perhaps the most impressive moves today was in the metals sector; gold was the weakest performer but still was a marginal gainer, silver was higher by 2.8%, copper by almost 4%, platinum by 2% and today's winner was palladium that erased last weeks losses by gaining over 4% today. We suggest waiting for confirmation because talking to some seasoned metal traders today this came out of nowhere. The US dollar is back below 82 and as expected on that int'l currencies caught a bid. We suggested trading small size and utilizing stops as this does not feel right.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Stocks made their way moderately higher but appear to have lost (at least some of) its momentum. Analysts have questioned the rally from day one, but the market continues to prove dissenters wrong. David A. Rosen berg, the chief economist at strategist for Gluskin Sheff, believes "The market is as overvalued now as it was undervalued a year ago." He added, "There is a very high degree of complacency." As we have noted in the past, complacency can sometimes lead to a sizable correction.

Another bearish opinion, Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor of "The Stock Trader's Almanac" believes that the market has priced in a better recovery than what could be the case. According to reliable sources, he is predicting a 20 to 30 percent decline before the markets can move higher.

In the near-term, investors successfully shook off news of a Russian terror attack and are eagerly awaiting Friday's non-farm payroll figures. Expectations have set a high bar with optimistic estimates ranging from 75,000 to 200,000. Keep in mind that the employment report will be released on Good Friday, the open outcry futures pits will be closed and electronic futures will have an early close. Accordingly, trade could be very thin and reaction to the data could be exaggerated.

We see resistance near 1177 through 1184 in the S&P; if you are trading the NASDAQ, key areas will be 1975 and 1995 and near 695 in the Russell.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

February 19 - Our clients were advised to sell the April 1165 calls for about $7.50, fills were coming in near $7.25 and a handful at $7.50.

March 5 - Clients with ample margin and guts, were recommended to add to this position by selling the 1165 calls for $9.50.

March16 - Clients were advised to roll half of their short call position into the April 1185/1100 strangle.

March 17 - Clients were advised to roll the remaining 1165 calls into the May 1190 calls to give the market some breathing room.

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

March 9 - Sell 1 June mini Russell @ 682 OB

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

March 3 - Sell 1 e-mini NASDAQ at 1878 or better

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The highly anticipated annual planting intentions report is about to be released, and with it, pivotal information regarding some of the hottest commodities traded on the market today. How are the markets going to move as a result of the farmers' crop trends? How is the current, and more importantly, future U.S. meteorological patterns going to affect the planting and harvesting of the intended crops? Should farmers delay their plantings for a more beneficial growing season?

The latest mid-month discussion from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society indicates that there is a 90% chance, according to both dynamical and statistical models, that El-Niño conditions will continue through March, April, and May, which are prime planting time frames for key commodities such as corn, cotton, and wheat.

The latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, released monthly by the Climate Prediction Center/National Center for Environmental Production/National Weather Service (CPC/NCEP/NWS), also indicate that El-Niño impacts will gradually fade throughout the remainder of the U.S. Spring season and shift into ENSO neutral conditions, particularly by the beginning of summer. Some of the effects that will continue to be observed include the following:

• Higher than average precipitation in the Southwest


• Higher than average precipitation in the South-central States


• Higher than average precipitation in Florida


• Below average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest


• Below average Precipitation in the Great Lakes region


• Above average temperatures across the northern U.S.


• Below average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern states

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a report in 1997 titled, "The Usual Planting and Harvesting Dates for U.S. Field Crops" which specify how the states compare to each other in regards to commodity production, as well as most active planting and harvesting dates.

Cotton, which is grown on the 36th degree parallel, can be found growing all the way from Northern Florida to the Carolinas, and as far west as California. Texas, one of the leading producers of U.S. cotton, depends on dry tropical to subtropical climates for a productive cotton crop. Initial soil conditions necessitate ample moisture. Since cotton uptakes an abundance of soil nutrients and moisture, careful crop rotation planning can allow for year round use of field acreage. The forecasted increase in precipitation in most of the cotton growing regions is good news to farms that tend to depend on Mother Nature to assist in their crop needs. Colder than average temperatures across the Southern central and southeastern states could be a problem as planting season is nearing halfway over. Most of the U.S. cotton growing regions have seen a long winter this year so far, which will probably result in a decreased cotton crop output or possible further delays in planting in the more northern cotton growing states such as Tennessee.

Corn, found primarily grown in Midwest, especially in Iowa and Illinois, consists of about 30% of the world production. Large amounts of water, either through crop irrigation, or natural rain is needed for fruitful crops. Predicted wetter conditions in the southeast and western portions of the Midwest will aid farmers this upcoming season. Precipitation amounts will be coupled with ideal temperature conditions which should yield on time productive corn crops this growing season.

Kansas, a key player in the U.S. winter wheat supply, won't be addressing planting conditions until its growing season which runs between mid-august through mid-September. North Dakota, which is said to produce more than half of the U.S. Spring Wheat supply, is forecasted to receive drier and warmer conditions this upcoming growing season which should be good news for farmers. Wheat is sensitive and has little resistance to temperatures outside of its normal growing range. A late start in spring growth would be ideal as there would be a less likelihood of a late "frost" bringing destruction to already-growing crops.

The expectations for the USDA's planting intentions report next week are as follows:

Wheat: Projected Acres 53.376 Million / Average estimate 51.9-55.0 / Last Year 59.133 Million

Cotton: Projected Acres 10.09 Million/ Average estimate 9.50-11.0 Million / Last Year 9.15 Million

Corn: Projected Acres 89.189 Million/ Average estimate 87.0-91.0 Million / Last Year 86.5 Million

Our current positions for clients in these markets are as follows:

Wheat: We have no outright positions but have positioned some clients long December KCBOT wheat against a short in December CBOT wheat expecting KCBOT to be at a premium to CBOT. This should work as long as the trend remains down.

Cotton: Clients are advised to have short exposure in cotton as we feel prices should come under pressure eventually taking prices back to the mid 60's on the December contract. Analyzing the daily chart we see stiff resistance just above 75 cents.

Corn: December corn has been range bound for the better part of the last month wondering between $3.85 and $4.15; we sit at the lower end of that range as of this post. We are advising clients to have long exposure via July call options and December futures anticipating a trade up to $4.50 in the coming months.

While seasonal trends may potentially impact supply and demand in certain commodities, seasonal aspects of supply and demand have been factored into futures & options market pricing.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

CBOT Wheat

Corn

Crude oil prices still found stubborn resistance above the $80-a-barrel level amid concerns about demand while natural gas continued its decline, to below $4 per million British thermal units, as burgeoning supply from unconventional sources depressed prices.

The natural gas Henry Hub benchmark futures settled Friday at a nearly six-month low of $3.87, down 31% so far this year from above $6 in January. Natural gas demand experiences a lull at this time of the year as warmer weather reduces heating use but the need for more electricity from gas-fired plants to power air conditioners is still weeks away.

Increased production of shale and other unconventional gas in the U.S. has pushed down prices. Rig counts have been increasing in spite of the slack off in demand, though the decline in prices has already prompted Chesapeake Energy, a major producer of shale gas, to consider suspension of production at some rigs.

Crude oil futures declined for the third day in a row on Friday after the U.S. Commerce Department revised its estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth downwards, to a 5.6% annual rate from 5.9% previously, adding to concerns about demand for oil.

Gains by the euro against the dollar on Friday after European Union leaders once again affirmed their readiness to stand by Greece during its fiscal crisis were not sufficient to offset the bearish sentiment regarding oil demand.

Earlier in the week, a bigger-than-expected increase in oil inventories reported unsettled the market and pushed prices back down. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories rose 7.25 million barrels in the week, much higher than consensus forecasts of 1.67 million barrels.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate contract settled at $80 a barrel on Friday, compared with $80.58 last Friday.

Not everyone was gloomy about demand. The London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies was optimistic in its monthly report for March, saying demand could return to pre-financial crisis levels this year. But the research group sees new sources of supply keeping a damper on prices.

Non-OPEC producers are now supplying 1.5 million barrels a day more than they were before the crisis. Although OPEC is currently supporting prices by restraining output, the CGES said, spare capacity in the cartel has increased to 6 million barrels a day from 2 million bpd before the crisis. In addition, OPEC members have increased production of natural gas liquids by 500,000 barrels a day, a further damper on upward price pressure for oil.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission report on traders' positions indicated that non-commercial traders reduced their net long position -- which anticipates an increase in prices - to 111,919 lots in the week ended March 23 from 124,143 lots in the previous week.

By Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Oil Prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com

The Treasury market enjoyed a mild bid throughout the session as the technical environment seemed to put a temporary floor under pricing. Also, month/quarter/week end buying seems to be helping the cause.

All in all it was a relatively uneventful news day. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was reported to be a little better than expected, but the final revision to the fourth quarter GDP was a little worse.

There is some concern that the expiration of the government's MBS purchase program will have a negative impact on Treasuries (higher rates), but not everybody thinks so. Fed member Charles Plosser, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal, "Given the market functioning, I don't anticipate that selling MBS at a reasonable pace is going to have a tremendous impact on Mortgage rates" He also mentioned that rumors of a hike at the discount window were premature.

We can't rule out another probe at the lows, or moderately new lows but we like the upside from here (temporarily at least). We see support in the 30 year in the mid-114's and resistance near 116'26.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.


Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

Flat

Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.

Flat


Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

As a swing trader I've been whipped around of late as markets slog back and forth. What I've been forced to do is trade against core positions. By this I mean if you want to be long corn for example (our client's biggest position) some times you may have to trade options or futures of a different month against your core position. Oil failed to get above yesterdays levels and as of this post just went negative. We expect prices to drift lower but would advise cutting losses on any open shorts on a settlement above $82 in May; our target remains $77/78. Now that natural gas has seen a trade below $4 will buyers enter the market? We are expecting the long Crude/short natural gas unwind to help natural gas find a bottom. Additionally check out the inverse correlation with natural gas to stocks. A top in stocks may equal a bottom in natural gas. We have advised clients to cut half their position on May longs at a loss on a trade below $3.90. We still like purchasing June 50 cent call spreads.

Surprise equities higher on the day! June ES puts are the only way I'd suggest having exposure speculating on indices coming off. Cotton lost 1.5% today putting May just above 80 cents; our targets remains 78 and then 76.Coffee prices perked up today gaining 2% closing above the 50 day MA the first time since mid-January. We have started to price out July 10 cent call spreads for clients...stay tuned.

Treasuries broke a key trend line today and look to be heading lower. We would refrain from being out right short but a possible idea would be a pair trade; short 30-yr/long 10-yr or short 10-yr/long 2-yr. Agriculture came under pressure today. We advised clients who were long December corn futures to sell May futures 1:1. Those who have held back or only have a small position we would advise lowering your cost basis and buying more corn ahead of next weeks USDA. Bear in mind you may need to take some heat but we view this as temporary. The KCBOT/CBOT wheat spread picked up a few pennies today; again we are expecting December KCBOT wheat to be at a premium to December CBOT wheat. Both cattle and hogs were lower on the day; continue to sell rallies.

Metals were sideways today but the fact that they were able to remain positive in the face of a stronger dollar does show some resiliency. We are expecting gold and silver to trade down before we see any substantial upside; $1075 then $1045 in gold and closer to $16 in silver. As long as the dollar stays above 82 we should see pressure in foreign currencies. If the Loonie was to trade to .9600-.9650 we would start looking for an exit door on shorts.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Thus far this week the precious metals have been under heavy pressure globally as the
economic data has been very U.S Dollar friendly. All eyes are on the two day European Summit which began today as investors hope to receive a better understanding of the true economic condition and the debt crisis that exists in Europe. So far the information coming out the European Union has been as clear as mud. Greece was the first state
that had its credit rating lowered followed by Portugal today and unfortunately will probably reveal several more states in need of a financial bail-out including Spain,
Ireland, and Italy. Obviously with this many states needing financial assistance the pressure on the Euro has been devastating. Since a weaker Euro means a stronger
Dollar and a halt to the precious metals upward momentum. It had been written in "FOCUS" a German based magazine that the vast Gold reserves in Europe would be used to help stabilize the European Union and give much needed confidence to the Euro. I guess time will tell. There is now speculation that the European states in need
of financial assistance may have to turn to the (IMF) International Monetary Fund for financial assistance which could promote inflation and possibly further erode the Euro.
The scenario's change minute to minute.

The Central Bank of Canada has indicated it may raise their interest rates as soon as June 1st. This after the Canadian Dollar had been showing impressive strength against the U.S Dollar Earlier in the week Gold was hurt by reports showing larger than expected jump in crude oil inventories. The Department of Energy reported inventories rose by 7.3 million barrels much higher than the 1.67 million that was projected.

The U.S Labor Department reported 442,000 Americans filed first time jobless claims last week...14,000 less than the prior week.

Also all metals traders should have an interest in today's (CFTC) Commodity Futures Trading Commission meeting. Federal regulators in the U.S are discussing whether to restrict the volume of speculative trading...this in response to Gold fever and the higher prices in Gold. What ever happen to the slogan "FREE MARKETS FOR FREE MEN". Speculators provide huge volume and stability to the gold trade!!!! CME Group's Thomas La Salla (Chief Regulatory Officer) has been quoted as saying "The CFTC's attempt to put limits on speculative activity on the metals is an attempt by the government oversight agency to overstep its bounds"..... In my opinion a volume restriction would just send traders into foreign metals. We need to keep the volume and business in the United States.....

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
mdaly@pfgbest.com
877-294-4669
312-775-3014
312-563-8029

*There is Extreme risk trading futures,options, and forex*

Huge build in Crude inventories and still oil held it's own with May probing $80/barrel but it appears we will close above that level. Our negative bias still exists but what will it take to see a trade to $77/78 is beyond me. Natural gas looks to be building a solid base just above $4. The risk/reward at these levels favors longs in our opinion. We are suggesting scaling into May futures with stops just below the recent lows and purchasing June 50 cent call spreads (i.e. $4.25/4.75).

Indices look overbought but have for weeks now...brave clients are sticking with the June put options. Today they purchased June 1050 ES puts for $550/per. Sugar came within 17 ticks or 16 cents and then closed 9% off that low. Buyers were active but I want to ensure this is just not another head fake before trying to get clients long again. May cotton is back below the 20 day MA losing 1.50 cents today. We are expecting further down side and have a target or 78.00 and then 76.00. OJ paired losses but did close lower now for 7 out of the last 8 sessions dragging prices back below the 50 day MA. We have told clients that we are interested in re-visiting longs under $1.30.

Treasuries were hit hard across the curve today; likely due the exorbitant auctions. We may NOT get the opportunity to sell from higher levels as we had expected but if prices continue south it will be without our clients. Corn and KCBOT were the lone agriculture commodities to keep their head above water today. You know the deal; we are suggesting long exposure via futures and options in July and December corn. Some of our clients that trade spreads may be interested in this: long December KCBOT wheat against a short in December CBOT wheat at 7-9 cents under expecting the spread to flip and KCBOT to be at a premium. Let cattle rally a little more and look to fade the rally; June would need to be contained at 94.00 and August at 92.00 or we would abandon the trade. Lean hogs continued lower; we expect a trade under 70.00 in coming sessions.

Precious to industrial metals were hit today; gold 1.70%, silver 2.6%, copper 1.5%, palladium 4.7%, and platinum 1.8%. We are looking for more downside pressure in this complex especially if the dollar can stay above 82.00. The significance of the 82 level in the US dollar index serves as the 50% Fibonacci level for the last 2 years. Use 81.25-81.50 as support with 84.00 as the next stop on the upside. The Yen got hit the hardest today and though I did not take people seriously who were whispering par just weeks ago this could happen. We are pricing out bearish plays for clients. If the Loonie can break the 20 day MA; at .9740 in June we should be on our way to a nice winning trade on clients June puts.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

ICE Futures U.S. coffee for May delivery has seen a rebound from the late-February low of $1.2825 to produce a choppy, four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The two popular shorter-term moving averages overlaid on the daily bar chart for May coffee futures have also just recently produced a bullish line crossover signal, whereby the 9-day crossed above the 18-day moving average. The coffee market bulls have recently gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum. However, the bulls have more work to do in the near term to suggest the present price uptrend can sustain.

There is strong overhead chart resistance located at $1.3750. A close above that price level would provide the bulls with better technical strength and would also suggest the price uptrend would continue and even strengthen. Solid technical support for May coffee futures is located at $1.3000. A close below this price level would deflate the bulls, would end the choppy price uptrend on the daily chart and would also suggest a retest of the February low, or below. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

An "OK" 2-year note auction and a lack of surprise in housing data left the Treasury market in familiar territory, near unchanged.

The government issued another $44-billion in 2-year notes at a rate of 1% and a bid to cover of 3; indirect bidders accounted for 34.8% of the participation. This auction suggests that demand for Treasuries might be slightly waning but it also lowers the bar for the upcoming issues and that could be near-term supportive.

Existing home sales came in at 5.02 million, a bit above expectations but slightly below the previous reading. Similarly, the FHFA home price index declined by .6% to surpass analyst estimates. The news was relatively neutral and thus, so was the market.

Neither equities nor currencies were able to give Treasury trade direction until late in the session. The financial and commodity markets across the board waffled near yesterday's settlement prices to make for a dreadfully boring trading day.

Nothing has changed, we are sticking with yesterday's chart work:

The June 30-year bond futures has resistance near 118'17 then again near 119. Support lies at, 117'03 and then again near 115'28. Note traders can look at similar upside levels at 117'22 then again at 118'01 with support at 116'08 and then again near 115'17.

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

Flat

Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.

Flat


Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.DeCarleyTrading.com
www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Health care bill passed its first test. Give it a few days to digest but this bill will not just go away and could have some major implications. The bears (me included) got run over in Crude oil today. Around 9AM est. this morning it appeared oil was on the verge of breaking down but as of this post the futures are 70 cents higher and $2.80 off the lows. We are advising swing traders to sell near $83 and buy near $78 but we really thought this was the beginning of the break we've been looking for...back to the drawing board. Natural gas made news lows but paired losses as at least someone besides just my clients are willing buyers at these levels. We suggest scaling into May futures and June call spreads expecting a trade closer to $5 in the weeks to come.

Indices should finish higher on the day but the Russell, Dow and S&P failed to make new highs even with the strong reversal. Though we feel like a kid who is playing with fire we are advising clients to have a light short in the S&P with stops above the recent highs. While we feel there will be a time to buy sugar we have no interest establishing new positions with clients as 3-5% daily swings are becoming commonplace; it feels like Vegas and is not for me. Still looking for more upside to be a seller of Treasuries; closer to 120′00 in 30-yr bonds and above 118′00 in 10-yr notes.

Corn lost 1% today closing just below the 20 day MA; use a setback to establish long exposure if you have not already. Soybeans were higher by 0.70% today and could see higher ground in the immediate future but we would prefer to be long from lower levels with clients. To take it a step further on a trade over $10 we may look to get short...stay tuned. Outside of corn our only Ag play with clients is long soybean meal; expecting July to trade above $300 in the coming weeks. Based on the market reaction to the Cattle on Feed report today we think last Friday live cattle put in an interim top. Those eager to get short we are suggesting selling rallies in June and August thinking we could get a trade 3-4 cents lower on top of the penny today.

Gold and silver were losers today but we did close well of their intra-day lows. Gold probed below $1100 as expected but we think there should be more to come; target $1075 and then $1045 in April. Use $16.50 as immediate support in May silver though we expect a trade closer to $16 this week or next. When May copper breaks $3.30 look out below but until then expect a 10-15 cent trading range/3.30-3.45.The Loonie closed down for the third consecutive session but we will need to see more weakness in metals and energies to see continued selling as we've forecast. On our radar but no action taken yet...selling the Yen from higher levels. We should have some trading ideas in the coming days.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

This past week was filled with drama from the FOMC meeting to health care. We are heading into the spring/summer home selling season. As the tulips bloom the housing market should take on a new life and see some positive numbers. There are lots of houses on the market and inventory levels are high. Home buyers that want to move need to start looking now so that they can close and move before school begins in the fall. This season, we could even see some trading down, out of the expensive house to something more reasonable. There are tax incentives for first time buyers and swap buyers alike. Every possible gift, including rock bottom mortgage interest rates are available. This will be a very telling season indeed. If housing can't perk up here, who knows how long it will take.

People continue to have trouble paying bills. In spite of all the economy expanding talk, very little has filtered thru to the middle class worker who continues to have trouble paying bills. This is a nation of shopaholics who, every once in a while, relapse into shopping and run out the door to buy something. We are addicted to shopping and nothing makes us feel as good as buying something, so, although most of us are on extreme budgets, every once in while the demon reappears and we have to go out and shop. Seasonally springtime we tend to upgrade and fix the house, perhaps for a sale or just to spruce it up for the Easter/Passover Holidays. Shoppers are emerging from the winter's hibernation to ferret out that new Easter outfit for the children or something to spruce up last year's holiday outfit to make it look newer. Thus, the adults will spend on little things to upgrade last year's style. Could be a hat, or a scarf, a new ties or a new pocketbook to match the shoes. Something small just to make the outfit feel new and current.

On the Jobs front we do see some small improvements. There are openings for some entry level jobs. On the other hand, we do see cut-backs on middle management and upper management jobs in troubled firms.

Tuesday: February existing home sales are released at 10:00. Wednesday: February durable goods are released at 8:30, and February new homes sales are released at 10:00. Thursday: Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testifies on the Hill and mutual fund sales and redemptions are released.

The US Dollar Index enjoyed a robust two-day rally last week in the Thursday and Friday sessions. The rally, in two days took back all that was lost in the previous six days. Yes, we know that the market rallied on the 15th. We seem to be in a trading range with 81.43 at the top and 79.61 at the bottom. All of the indicators that we follow continue to issue a buy-signal on the US Dollar index. All have plenty of room to the upside. The 5-day moving average is at 80.295. The top of the Bollinger band is at 81.126 and the lower edge is seen at 79.79. We have just gotten a parabolic SAR buy on the US Dollar index. As you know a parabolic SAR is a stop and reverse signal which just covered the short and went long. Naturally, we are above the Ichimoku clouds for the daily time-frame, but we are in the clouds for the weekly and below the clouds for the monthly time-frames. Remember, as the US Dollar index gets stronger, it does have an impact on dollar based commodities which, should decline as the US Dollar appreciates.

The S&P 500 June futures declined in the Friday session. We can attribute the decline to the fact that the March futures went off the board at the opening of trading on Friday. It is also likely that many of the futures traders took the day off after the expiration in the morning. This lack of attention led to a decline in the market. The 5-day moving average is at 1149.86. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1173.31 and the lower edge is seen at 1082.63. We are above the clouds for both the daily and the weekly time-frames. We have seen this market grossly overbought for most of the rally since February 16. The Friday session yielded a sell-signal from all but the Thomas DeMark Expert indicators. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is going sideways at overbought levels. Friday's retreat did not break the uptrend line which is at 1151 for the Monday session.

The NASDAQ 100 looks worst than does the S&P 500 does. Why? Because the NASDAQ 100 made a fresh high in the Friday session and then proceeded to remove the low and left a bearish engulfing candle on the chart. We do have a sell-signal from the stochastic indicator, the RSI and our own indicator. This alone is not enough to make us bearish. At the moment there is no break in the trendline on the indicators and until that occurs, we will just watch the action of the NASDAQ 100. We are above the Ichimoku clouds on both a daily and weekly time-frame but we are below the clouds on the monthly time-frame. We would have to break 1903.75 to become bearish. Right now, we believe that we will back and fill, perhaps trading a little lower. That should resolve into a continuation of the uptrend that is, unless we close below 1903.75. A close below that level will be negative for the market. We have signs of exhaustion in this market.

It looks as though the Russell 2000 is taking the lead on the direction of Mr. Market. This index, declined in the Thursday session while both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rallied. All the indicators that we follow continue to issue a sell-signal with plenty of room to the downside. We actually saw this market close below the 5-day moving average which is at 673.88. The top of the Bollinger band is at 695.42 and the lower edge is seen at 614.67. We are above the Ichimoku clouds for both the daily and the weekly time-frames. We would be concerned if this index closes below....666.

Crude oil looks as though it will trade lower. All the indicators that we follow herein continue to issue a sell-signal with plenty of room to the down side. The 5-day moving average is at 81.91. The top of the Bollinger band is at 83.59 and the lower edge is seen at 78.48. We continue above the Ichimoku clouds on a daily time-frame but we are in the clouds for the weekly time-frame and below the clouds for the monthly time-frame. The past two trading days have been difficult for crude oil and seems to be linked to the US Dollar strength. We can expect to see this continue for a while longer.

Gold retreated in the Friday session. Gold is trading inside the clouds for the daily time-frame. The 5-day moving average is at 1114.16. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1143.43 and the lower edge is seen at 1092.54. Gold looks as though it is stuck in a trading range and until a break to either the upside, above 1145.80 or a break below the downside 1088.5 we will remain on the sidelines. We are inside the Ichimoku clouds for the daily time-frame but remain above the clouds for both the weekly and the monthly time-frames. We believe that there is more room to the downside and will buy should the low of 1088 hold.

Oil Market Summary for 03/15/2010 to 03/19/2010

Crude oil futures kept falling back from highs even though speculative funds increased their bets that prices are headed higher. The benchmark West Texas Intermediate contract ended the week at $80.68 a barrel, after nearing $83 earlier in the week, compared to $81.24 a week ago.

Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali Naimi, made it clear once again on Tuesday that the world's largest oil producer prefers a range of $70 to $80 for oil prices. Speaking to journalists in Vienna prior to and OPEC meeting, Naimi said the oil-exporting group, which accounts for 40% of daily oil consumption, won't let tight supplies push prices too high.

Further bearish factors were the increase of 1 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories in the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration and renewed strength of the dollar amid continuing concern about Greece's fiscal situation.

A report in The Wall Street Journal on Friday suggested that EIA collection methods for the oil inventory data may be flawed, according to internal agency documents obtained by the newspaper. Greece said on Thursday it might have to call on the International Monetary Fund for aid if its efforts to reduce its deficit are not successful.

But bulls were encouraged by the Federal Reserve's reiteration that interest rates would remain low and by OPEC's decision to leave production volume unchanged, indicating their belief that prices would remain firm. The benchmark oil contract settled at $82.93 on Wednesday.

However, the move by the Reserve Bank of India to raise its key rates on Friday drove oil prices down amid fears that China and other emerging economies might follow suit and dampen demand for oil.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that non-commercial traders increased their net long position in light sweet crude to 109,314 lots in the week ended March 9, compared with 91,417 lots in the previous week. The increase in the net long position indicated that speculative traders expect oil prices to rise.

In the meantime, the Futures Industry Association, a lobby for the big futures and options traders, urged the CFTC not to follow through on its plan to adopt position limits for energy futures.

"FIA is not aware of any convincing or even credible evidence that large traders with speculative positions in energy futures markets have trumped market fundamentals as the determining factor in energy futures prices," FIA president John Darmgard wrote in a comment letter on the CFTC proposal.

The FIA official went on to say that there is no evidence that position limits in agricultural futures have changed speculative behaviour in any way. Imposing limits on U.S. traders, the FIA says, will only put them at a disadvantage in international markets.

This article was written by Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com who focus on Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Oil Prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: www.oilprice.com

Bonds and notes made an impressive attempt at a Friday rally, but the volume nor the news was able to support mid-session gains. There were absolutely no economic reports for traders to move on, making the highlight (or lowlight) of the day a speech by President Obama on healthcare.

There is a lot of supply coming down the tube. The Treasury will be auctioning $42 billion in 5-year notes on Wednesday, $32 billion in 7-year notes on Thursday and a boatload of bills on Monday. While supply in itself is bearish, the relentlessly strong demand has enabled auctions to be relatively bullish for Treasuries.

The near-term direction in Treasuries could be decided by stock trade. Although the negative correlation between the two asset classes has been disconnected as of late, the relationship seems to be revised by lower equities. Should the major stock indices struggle to maintain current values (as we think will be the case) the bond market could benefit from a temporary bout of short covering and buy stop running.

We are hoping for a little more excitement next week. The economic calendar lists existing and new home sales data, durable goods orders, GDP and Michigan Sentiment.


Both the 30-year bond and 10-year note futures fell a bit short of our original projections of the mid to high 118's and near 118, respectively. We would like to see what Monday looks like, but our gut tells us that the rally might have a little more squeezing to do. For now, we are cautiously looking slightly higher.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.


Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

Flat

Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.

Flat

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Too many shots, too many pints, too much corn beef and cabbage...markets did a whole lot of nothing today. $83-83.50 is still acting as stiff resistance on the May Crude futures; use that as resistance and $79.50 followed by $77.50 as support. Though there is far more profit potential being short or long futures in oil at the moment we prefer sleeping at night and have advised clients to trade options until we get a clearer direction if they intend holding overnight. We are still thinking a set back of $4-6 is likely in the coming days/weeks and have not ruled out a trade back to $70/barrel.

Could a 5% down move today be the capitulation low that natural gas needed to find a bottom? Being prices are this close on the front month it is likely to challenge a trade below $4. Prices have not seen that handle in 7 months. Clients were advised to put in limit orders to buy back the top leg of their June call spreads today. It would take a slightly lower trade to get filled.

Sugar has put in 2 consecutive positive showings for the first time in 1 month. Lets try this again...as long as prices do not close below 18 cents on the May contract we like being long very lightly as we've been burned before. Assuming this low holds a trade back to 23 cents could happen quickly. A safer play could be to trade spreads or options as opposed to futures. OJ traded a nickel lower intra-day but managed to close above a trend line that has held since last fall. We would like to see more downside and should if we can break the aforementioned trend line. Clients exited their May soybean oil puts at a loss of $90/per. Corn is back above the 20 day moving average and as we indicated yesterday we like being long. We are looking for a trade back to the previous resistance in the coming weeks to month; about 60 cents above today's close.

Live cattle a gainer by another 1.5% today to fresh highs; though it is tough hold off selling until we see signs of a top. Gold and silver remained range bound again today with silver off a touch and gold inching higher. The dollar raced higher today taking all other crosses lower with the Euro getting hit the hardest. Roles have once again shifted and now the Euro and Pound are a sale on rallies as opposed to a buy on dips. Our lone currency play is short the Loonie; an interim top perhaps yesterday?

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

So far this week has revealed a vast array of economic data and global news which has truly tested the resiliency of the precious metals. The global economic climate is forcing the most seasoned Gold traders to step back and refocus their trading strategies.

Gold and Silver are considered to be "anti" U.S Dollar and normally trade inversely.
However, despite the U.S Dollar's recent rally the precious metals have maintained
their value in the face of heavy pressure.

Much of the Dollars strength has come from the Euro Dollars weakness. The European Unions debt crisis continues to plague the precious metals. The crisis has turned out to much worse than originally reported. It began almost four months ago with the down grading of Greece's credit status. The European recently pledged a multi-billion Euro
to help bail-out Greece. There are several other European states who are requesting fiscal aid as well. These states include Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. This has produced heavy pressure on the Euro and Has caused investors to flee to the U.S. Dollar as a "safer haven" investment. It was reported in FOCUS (a German Magazine) that the European Union was considering using its vast Gold reserves to help support and stabilize the debt ridden states. It was also reported they were considering going to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan. This is an on-going saga that appears to far from over.

The U.S Federal Reserve announced it will keep Interest rates low for an "extended period". Higher interest rates would give confidence to the U.S Dollar and pressure the gold.

CPI showed the cost of living remained unchanged for the month of February. This indicated the forecast for pending inflation remains low.

The Department of Labor reported the number of Americans filing for first time jobless applications dropped by 5,000. Hopefully this is an indication that companies are cutting fewer jobs and that the economy is recovering from its deepest recession since the 1930's.

The Gold trading community is very concerned that the Peoples Bank of China will move to raise interest rates again in an effort to curb their growing inflation as well as slowing down their ever growing economy. Another rate hike could cause the precious metals to retrace

Gold is receiving support as well..... The World Gold Council (WGC) reported "Global gold demand is expected to recover in 2010 after a fall last year, helped by a pick-up in jewelry demand and firm investment demand." There is no doubt the Jewelers of India have helped support the Gold as they were very strong buyers below the $1100 level and have continued to buy on price dips. India's Jewelers have been purchasing gold in preparation for the upcoming "AKSHAYA TRITIYA" festival on May 16th. This is a festival auspicious for the buying of gold. The WGC also expects central banks to buy gold as a monetary asset and a means to diversify reserves amid currency uncertainties.
Obviously this has helped the gold remain over the $1100 level.

Russia has increased its Gold reserves from $441.3 billion on March 12th from $437.1 billion a week earlier. Currently Russia holds the third largest Gold reserves in the world.

Gold also tends to track Crude oil prices and with Crude oil trading over $80 per barrel many investors use the gold market to hedge against Crude oil led inflation.

These are exciting times in which to trade Gold.

Trade Smart...
Let's Talk Gold

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
mdaly@pfgbest.com
877-294-4669
312-775-3014
312-563-8029

*there is extreme risk trading futures,options, and forex*

HAPPY ST PATRICK'S DAY! Technical indications suggest that the downward movement in the British Pound may be consolidating, offering an opportunity to enter a short position before the currency resumes its downward trend. We therefore offer the following trade for your consideration.

BUY 1 JUNE BRITISH POUND 149 PUT/SELL 1 JUNE 143 PUT/SELL 1 JUNE 159 CALL.

Currently the trade can be done for close to even money, possibly a small credit. Maximum profit on the trade is $3750 minus commissions (there will be three (3)). The trade has unlimited risk above 159.00

Please contact us with any questions or assistance in placing these trades
Paul Brittain
Whitehall Investment Management of Las Vegas
www.whitehallvegas.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

You cannot have your cake and eat it too! Either circumstances in the economy are getting better and we need to start looking for an exit door or we are still in for a sh-t storm and then no action is necessary! If the Fed sees the economy improving than why leave IR at an "excessively low rate for an extended period." Inflation subdued by what measures? Pass me what Ben and the gang are smoking.

Crude gained by 2.5% today, ideally this is a one day wonder but tomorrow will tell. Talking to some big energy traders today they expect a range from $76-82. We will continue to play options for clients on rallies thinking that we will head back to the lower end of that range. It sounds like a broken record but we like scaling into longs in Nat gas at these low extremes. What will be the catalyst one client asked today to turn around prices...I do not know but this the short trade feels too crowded! Indices were sideways to up on most of the session and are still trying to digest the Feds non-action to decide where from here. I've thrown in the towel trying to predict a top but some of the cycle analysis that we've read of late courtesy of some of our clients predicts going into April it could get ugly. Sugar made fresh lows, futures traders should have been stopped at a loss when we broke last weeks levels. We are holding off on all new entries until this market bottoms. On a rally if we get one in the coming weeks we will be looking to cut losses on call options for clients.

Let Treasuries rally 1 1/2-3 handles before selling! We will have an interest in 30-yr bonds closer to 120′00 and above 118′00 in 10-yr notes. Green across the screen in agriculture today with corn up by 1.0%, and wheat and soybeans by 1.60%.Corn is a buy; in options we like July and futures December. We sill think there is a possibility to see a trade close to 38.00 in May soybean oil to exit for clients; we will give it till the end of this week. Metals caught fire today likely because of the pressure on the dollar and strength in outside markets. April gold, May silver and May copper all gained virtually 2% each. We do not trust the upside and the only way we see it following through is we get a hefty break in the dollar...stay tuned. That being said the dollar index broke the 2 previous days lows and the trend line that had held since the first week of December. The Euro and Pound should benefit the most as they have been hit the hardest. The Euro could make a stab at 1.3950/1.40 and the Pound at 1.5500; next significant resistance levels.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

The Federal Reserve pleased the market by doing absolutely nothing. The result of today's FOMC meeting was to keep rates at the current near zero target rate and they didn't even bother changing their "exceptionally low" and "extended period" language. However, as was the case last time, Hoenig was a dissenting opinion on the language. He feels that the current language could cause imbalances.

The Fed noted that the pace of the recovery is moderate and the economic activity has continued to strengthen. On the other hand, they observed that bank lending continues to contract despite financial market conditions that support growth.

There comes a time that a trader/analyst has to come to term with the fact that she was wrong and we have reached that point. We had been calling for a rally to 1125 in the S&P but never expected it to continue into the 50's and certainly not the 60's. However, sticking our head in the sand and pretending that it didn't happen isn't the answer. Our clients that were holding multiple short S&P calls based on our recommendation below were advised to begin mitigating market exposure by buying half of their position back (April 1165 calls) and selling an April S&P 1185/1100 strangle. I am normally not a fan of strangles, but this seemed to be the best way to recoup the premium paid to exit the existing trade and keep a position that would benefit from time decay at the pace that we need it to.

The result is a net short position with a lower delta (less volatility) and intrinsic risk shifted away from the market.

It is possible that the market will have some buyer's remorse in tomorrow's session. After all, gains were made on news of alleviated concerns over Greece's debit issues and a Fed with a slow trigger; each of these factors seemed to have been built into the rally on the way up. That said, the next resistance in the S&P is 1163 and it looks like that is the next stopping point. Similar resistance lies in the Russell at 683 and 1950 in the NASDAQ.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

February 19 - Our clients were advised to sell the April 1165 calls for about $7.50, fills were coming in near $7.25 and a handful at $7.50.

March 5 - Clients with ample margin and guts, were recommended to add to this position by selling the 1165 calls for $9.50.

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

March 9 - Sell 1 June mini Russell @ 682 OB

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

March 3 - Sell 1 e-mini NASDAQ at 1878 or better

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.DeCarleyTrading.com
www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Downward momentum is gaining as Crude has lost 2.9% in the last 2 sessions. We are expecting this move to drag prices in May to $76/77. As we voiced in our commentary this morning exit ALL longs in distillates until this correction runs its course which should pressure heating oil and RBOB 15-20 cents. Natural gas is still searching for a bottom but we like buying at these levels. We advised new entries to scale into May futures and we still like 50 cent call spreads for June thinking a trade back above $5 will play out in the next 3-5 weeks. We've been fooled before as most followers know but the indices are looking heavy. We've yet to redeploy money short futures on a position trade but if the Fed meeting leads to selling we will most likely get short once again with clients. Some clients still hold their June ES and SP puts and are down but we are confident that these positions will be profitable.

Sugar was off by just over 1% but we are operating under the influence that the lows last week will hold. The intra-day sell off in OJ was nice but not enough to get us interested in longs. We feel May needs to trade closer to $1.30 to buy a buyer for clients. We expect cotton prices to trade lower but we suggest waiting for a close below the 20 day MA at 80.35 in May for confirmation. We suggest waiting for more upside in Treasuries to be a seller...maybe the Fed will aid in that. We advised clients to add to their July call options and long s in December futures in corn today.

May soybean oil lost an additional 2% today; clients will look to exit tomorrow or the next day on a move closer to 38.00. We suggest waiting for an interim top before jumping in front of the freight train we call live cattle; prices made new highs again today. Gold and silver were marginally higher but "Doctor Copper" was off almost 2%. On a settlement below $3.29 (today's low) look for an additional 10-15 cents. Monitor the action in the dollar to help trading the other currencies. The line in the sand is the trend line at 80.00 on the June contract.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Crude oil prices tread water for the week as uncertainty about demand continued to weigh on the market. Prices were down slightly on the week, with the benchmark West Texas Intermediate settling on Friday at $81.24 a barrel, compared with $81.50 a week ago.

Not even relatively bullish forecasts for oil demand, such as the International Energy Agency's report on Friday raising its forecast by 70,000 barrels a day for 2010, or the decline in the dollar could propel oil prices forward.

One analyst even predicted crude oil prices dipping below $60 a barrel in the second half of the year. Ronald-Peter Stöferle, a raw materials analyst at Austria's Erste Bank, said that oil is relatively expensive by historical standards, and current prices are not justified by demand.

Moreover, Stöferle notes, OPEC seems to prefer a price between $70 and $80 a barrel to keep unconventional sources such as shale oil and oil sands, or alternative energy sources like solar and wind, from becoming economically competitive.

In any case, this analyst expects oil prices could rise further in the first half of this year, even hitting $100 a barrel, but will average only $72 a barrel over the second half due to weak demand and other factors. In particular, he thinks too many hopes are pinned on growth in China's economy. "We are critical of the blind trust in the Chinese economy as recovery and growth engine," Stöferle said, adding that China cannot be a "messiah for the global economy."

The IEA's forecast for an increase of 1.6 million barrels a day in crude oil demand this year to 86.6 million barrels a day was quickly eclipsed by another report on Friday. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which declined in March to 72.5 from 73.6 in February, indicated that consumers remain uncertain about the future. Analysts had expected a small increase for the month.

The euro gained ground against the dollar, rising above $1.37. The dollar, already weak, declined further after reports that San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president Janet Yellen, considered a "dove" on interest rates, will be nominated as vice chairman of the Fed. This would increase the likelihood of U.S. rates remaining low.

Source: www.oilprice.com/article-crude-prices-stagnate-amid-doubts-about-global-demand.html

By Darrell Delamaide of OilPrice.com who focus on, Fossil Fuels Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: www.oilprice.com

This does not feel like Spring Break to me as I need to be glued to the screens. The good news being I live in Ft Lauderdale it may feel like Spring Break at the beaches this weekend. A small victory today as we had a bearish engulfing candle in oil. As of this post prices are $2 off their intra-day highs. We were lucky enough to buy back our bottom legs this morning when oil was positive and now clients own May $75 puts and should be able to profit on the trade as prices make their way closer to $77/76. $5 put spreads that were bought within the last few session stay put looking for lower trade. It has been a long 5 weeks as natural gas lost another 15 cents this week. We are lonely in this trade as most people doubt we can turn around anytime soon but clients remain long via future and options as they believe as do I that we will be back over $5 within a month. Clients still hold June puts in the ES and SP but as prices closed at a fresh high yesterday we advised them to cut losses on futures. We still think we could get a nasty correction but until the markets tops there is no reason to fight the tape.

Next week will be key in sugar to see if the almost 35% correction was enough to attract fresh buying. We think it was and expect a grind higher from here. Cotton rallied about 2% today; it was too good to be true down all 5 sessions this week. Clients are short still looking for 75/76 cents in May. Corn has been down for the last 7 session but it has only dropped 20 cents in that time frame. We like being long via options and futures and have advised clients to lift all their short hedges. I would favor July options to May and if interested in futures we would trade the new crop December futures. May soybean oil is down 3.5% in the last 2 sessions; another 1-2% and we would look to book profits on shorts. Stay out of cattle's path; April made a new high today lifting prices to levels not seen since the fall of 2008. We feel we are close to a top but like stocks there is no reason to jump in front of a freight train. There will be a time and place to get short and we will advise when but not yet.

April gold traded below $1100 but closed just above that level. We think more down side is likely and currently own NO gold for clients. Likewise with silver we feel we could get some pressure short term. Assuming the recent H/L a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is $16.40 and 50% is $16.10. The closer prices are to $15.75 the more aggressive of a buyer we would likely be for clients. Copper prices really did not go anywhere but we did close down all 5 sessions this week. We are thinking if we see another leg down here or overseas copper could get hit 10-20%. The dollar closed down for the third consecutive week and ended below the 34 day moving average for the first time since mid-January. If the dollar continues lower look for all the currencies to temporarily gain. We are using the volatility to scalp intra-day for clients in the Pound and Yen. Clients remain short the Loonie via June puts and took some heat today but should be fine in the coming weeks.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

So far this week we have traded a very choppy and volatile $37.50 range. The weakness of the Gold market has been attributed to the U.S Dollar's strength. It appears this European Credit Crisis that has put an unbelievable strain on the Euro is not going away anytime soon. We are all aware of Greece's budget debt and the vast and severe cuts the Greek Cabinet has ordained to receive help from the European Union Central Bank. However there is much more here than previously realized from the investment community. Not only was Greece's fiscal problems worse than originally thought it has been revealed that Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy are having there own debt crisis.
With this economic climate it is truly amazing the 'precious metals' have been able to maintain the $1100.00 level.

Also adding pressure to the precious metals inability to maintain or retain gains is the speculation regarding the Peoples Bank of China once again raising interest rates due to HIGHER than expected inflation in China. They have been sending mixed signals to
the world regarding their appetite for Bullion. First they boast about building their reserves from 1500 metric tons to 10,000 metric tons over the next decade. Yet recently they have stated they will curtail their bullion imports to help slow their ever growing economy. Only time will tell what the worlds largest consumer will do.

Meanwhile the jewelers of India have been huge Bullion buyers in the Asian Gold market and have deemed it as "Bargain Hunting". The Indians have been buying price dips since early December. Indonesia and Viet Nam have also been buyers of bullion...

Jobless Claims dropped 6,000 to 462,000.

Unexpectedly the Trade Deficit dropped 6.6%.

Let's talk Gold!

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
mdaly@pfgbest.com
877-294-4669
312-775-3014
312-563-8029

* There is Extreme risk trading futures, options, and forex*

Markets seem to waiting for some type of catalyst to determine the direction of the next leg. Inside day in Crude oil as prices hover around $82/barrel. For new entries we still like the idea of $5 put spreads but we would start looking at the June as opposed to May contract. If currently in the May we would try to buy back the bottom leg; we have suggested for clients to buy back their $70 puts and that would leave them long the $75 puts. A disappointing day for longs in natural gas as yesterday could prove to be just a head fake. Clients remain long via April futures and June call spreads as prices were off 2.4% today.

As of this post indices are at the high of the day; we think we are close to an inflection point but we've been wrong for the past 2 weeks. If the S&P closes above 1148 exit short futures at a loss. Fourth consecutive down day in sugar but we are assuming yesterday's low at 18.82 in May will serve as support. May cotton has lost 3.8% in the last 5 session and closed below the 20 day moving average for the first time since February 8th. We are expecting another 2-4 cents and will then be advising clients to lift shorts. Corn was flat on the day while wheat was a small loser and soybeans giving up almost 3%. A larger crop from South America could pressure soybeans another 30-50 cents. Clients are long July soybean meal and down but we are looking for prices to rebound within that time frame, we may average in next week. Additionally they own puts in May soybean oil and should be able to book a profit next week on a move under 39.00 in May.

Trail stops down if you are short lean hogs; if the 9 day MA gives way we should see a trade under 70.00 cents in April. Mixed bag in metals; we are still anticipating a trade lower in gold, silver, and copper before we see any substantial upside. The Commodity currencies (Kiwi, Aussie, Loonie) look vulnerable; clients remain short the Loonie expecting a trade under .9500.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Seasonal tendencies suggest that wheat tends to peak out & fall throughout the summer season (Wheat is just tasty grass after all). To take advantage of this tendency, we recommend the following trade strategy.

Trade Recommendation

BUY 1 SEPT WHEAT 480 PUT/ SELL 1 SEPT WHEAT 420 PUT/SELL 1 SEPT WHEAT 580 CALL

The trade is currently being executed for even money to a small credit plus commissions (there are three). Maximum profit on the trade is $3000. The trade has unlimited risk above 580 in the Sept Wheat futures contract.

Please contact us with any questions or assistance in placing these trades
Paul Brittain - Whitehall Investment Management of Las Vegas
www.whitehallvegas.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

May soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday gave back all of Wednesday's short-covering gains, and then some. Prices hit a fresh four-week low of $9.33 3/4 as of this writing. Price action this week has put a three-week-old downtrend line in place on the daily bar chart for May soybeans.

Bears have regained downside near-term technical momentum this week. Their next downside price objective is to produce a close below strong technical support at the February low of $9.11, basis May futures. Above that key price level is located chart support at $9.28 3/4 and then at $9.20 a bushel. For the soybean bulls to regain some upside near-term technical momentum they will have to push and close May futures prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $9.64 1/4. Below that key price level is located chart resistance at $9.41, at $9.50 and then at $9.60 a bushel. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

According to reliable sources, the S&P futures have only closed positive 9 sessions in a row twice since 1987 prior to today. However, the March contract closing in the green on Wednesday makes it three times. The others occurred in 2003 and 2009.

The index has only posted gains in 10 consecutive sessions once and has never closed higher 11 in a row. Another startling stat, S&P futures have closed positive in 16 of the last 18 sessions and has moved over 100 handles from the early Feb low.

The market is clearly overbought and due for, at minimum, some back and filling but there is no telling how high the squeeze could see before stocks turn over. Our resistance in the March S&P at 1148 held but we are hearing that there are a substantial number of stop orders accumulating above 1148 which run through 1153ish....so there could be one more run left in the move. The question is, will there be any bears left to benefit from a potential correction?

It feels like this market wants to go up forever, but that is usually when it doesn't. near term resistance in the three major indices is 1148 (March S&P), 1921 (March NASDAQ) and 678 (March Russell). However, it seems like a blow off top could bring us to the next levels...1153ish, 1940 and 683.

According to our trusty sources on the CME floor, the last 11 times that the S&P has closed positive for 8 consecutive sessions the next trading day has seen a red close 81% of the time. This ignores magnitude but seems to be evidence that the market might be a little overheated up here.

Based on conversations that I have had with other analysts/traders, it is clear that the current rally has pummeled the bears into submission. It appears as though, many have run out of capital and conviction and have therefore, moved to the sidelines. Unfortunately, this can often be a precursor to a market reversal. Remember, markets tend to cause as much pain as suffering to speculators as possible and a reversal from here would catch the complacent bulls sleeping and act as the thorn in the side of the bears that have thrown in the towel.

Also, the headlines have gone from bearish to bullish and S&P 1300 seems to be back into conversations. However, it is the exact bullish sentiment that is luring sidelined cash into the market that makes me doubt the ability of recent gains to hold.

We don't know where the exact highs of this move will be, and if you have been following this newsletter you have likely realized that we turned bearish far too early into this rally. Nonetheless, we can't "buy" into this move.

We are sticking to yesterday's technical numbers...Resistance in the S&P near 1148 (but our floor brokers think 1153ish). The NASDAQ should struggle near 1921 with the next technical level being 1940 (ouch!). The Russell faces resistance at 673 and then again at 682.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

February 19 - Our clients were advised to sell the April 1165 calls for about $7.50, fills were coming in near $7.25 and a handful at $7.50.

March 5 - Clients with ample margin and guts, were recommended to add to this position by selling the 1165 calls for $9.50.

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

March 9 - Sell 1 mini Russell @ 682 OB

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

March 3 - Sell 1 e-mini NASDAQ at 1878 or better

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.DeCarleyTrading.com
www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Seasonal tendencies suggest that grains rally throughout the spring, however this is a tendency only, uncertainty always exists. To hedge against downward pressure on soybean prices, we offer the following trading strategy - a 1 by 2 soybean put spread using November options.

Trade Recommendation

BUY 1 NOV SOYBEAN 880 PUT/ SELL 2 NOV SOYBEAN 820 PUTS.

The trade is currently being executed for close to even money. Maximum profit on the trade is $3000. The trade begins to lose money below 760 on the November Soybean futures contract.

Please contact us with any questions or assistance in placing these trades

Paul Brittain Email: paul@binvstgrp.com

Whitehall Investment Management of Las Vegas

www.whitehallvegas.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Friday's sharp sell-off seemed to knock the bulls off of their high horse but the pullback might work in their favor as higher yields could attract buyers to the upcoming Treasury auctions. On the slate for tomorrow is $40 billion in 3-year notes and $26 billion in 1-year securities.

Volume, and trade, was anemic but this can all change in the blink of an eye. There seems to be a considerable amount of call buying activity in the VIX as well as put buying in the equity indices. Also, commentators on business news stations "felt" a bit too bullish this morning...and this could signal an intermediate-term top in the equity indices. If this is the case, bonds and notes will be a direct beneficiary.

There is very little economic data until Thursday and Friday and this could keep trading interest at a minimum. On Friday, we stated that we were waiting to see what Monday brings but today's trade brought little clarity. Let's see what Tuesday brings...

Sorry to be so brief and indecisive, but we don't have much to go on and I would rather be lacking an opinion that force a foolish one.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

Flat

Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.

Flat

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.DeCarleyTrading.com
www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Oil Market Summary for 03/01/2010 to 03/05/2010

Jobs data indicating that U.S. economic recovery might be picking up steam finally pushed crude oil futures decisively over the stubborn $80 a barrel threshold. Nymex's benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled Friday at $81.50 a barrel, a seven-week high, after topping $82 in intraday trading.

An unchanged unemployment rate of 9.7% and a smaller-than-expected drop in payrolls propelled both stocks and commodities higher on Friday. Earlier in the week, industry job data also came out better than expected, pushing crude just above the $80 a barrel mark.

Any improvement in the labor market would translate into more commuter driving, more vacation driving this summer and generally greater energy demand, analysts said.

The jobs figures trumped other data, such as increases in inventories, that normally dampen oil prices. Oil inventories rose by 4 million barrels in the week, well ahead of consensus forecasts for a gain of only 1 million barrels.

Remarks by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the opening of the National People's Congress on Friday expressing continued support for the economy also pushed prices higher, analysts said. Wen said the economy was on track to grow 8% this year. Recent efforts by Chinese authorities to curb bank lending have led to uncertainty about Chinese growth prospects.

But the situation in Europe with Greece's fiscal crisis weighing on the euro continued to unsettle markets. Greece successfully placed a bond issue this week, but questions remain about the stability of the euro zone. The euro inched above the $1.36 mark in late Friday trading.

Oil prices also overcame a nearly 4% drop in natural gas prices on Thursday. The benchmark Nymex contract fell 18.2 cents on Thursday to settle at $4.575 a million British thermal units. Traders concluded that cold winter weather was now over, analysts said.

The draw-down in gas storage was only 116 billion cubic feet in previous week, less than the consensus forecast, so that total gas storage remains above the five-year average. Natural gas futures settled only marginally higher on Friday at $4.595/MMBtu.

Natural gas price trends are more often decoupled from crude oil trends as increased output of shale gas in the U.S. creates a different supply and demand situation.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has begun flexing some enforcement muscle in energy futures trading. The CFTC fined UBS for exceeding position limits in heating oil and natural gas contracts, and the U.S. Oil Fund, an exchange-traded fund, said the agency may charge it with wrongly reporting some trades.

But the UBS fine was quite small, only $130,000, and the fault in the USO reporting may lie with the broker or clearing house. Even so, commentators said these may be early signs that the CFTC will be following through on its pledge to police futures trading more carefully.

By Darrell Delamaide for OilPrice.com who focus on, Fossil Fuels, Metals, Crude Oil Prices, Alternative Energy and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: www.oilprice.com

This phrase is coined for the college basketball tournament but I think it is an accurate description of what to expect as a trader this month. At its highs today oil was less than $3/barrel from making new highs on the year. Being bearish for the last 1-2 weeks has made our clients NO $ but we still feel a trade to $75/76 is imminent. We are not disputing a trade in summer is likely up to $90 but first a correction. We still favor $5 put spreads. Natural gas should finish down 3.5-4.0% lower on the week. That is not too bad! Clients have a small long position in April futures and June call spreads and at the moment are all under water. We expect the next 2 weeks to be better to us in energies; that means crude down and natural gas up. Are you kidding me that we only lost 36,000 jobs and unemployment did not change?

The equity market is being propped up by the powers that be and if the free market determined prices we would be at least 10% lower. Clients are down on their June ES puts but will stay the course being they have over 3 months time. Sugar closed up 2.4%; we suggest being long May and July via options looking for a move back to 26 cents. For the first time in 4 weeks cotton will finish lower; clients are positioned to take advantage of a set back to 75/76 cents in May. Treasuries were hit hard today and we do think more downside is likely in the coming months but we still feel one will get the opportunity to put on shorts from higher levels. If the recovery is underway which I question and there is more talk of the Fed raising rates traders should re-visit the idea of short Euro-dollars. The charts look like in the next few sessions Agriculture will trade lower. Aggressive traders could use that to get short while I would prefer getting long from lower levels.

USDA report out next Wednesday. Our current positions for clients in Ag include long corn, long soybean meal and short soybean oil. We have no positions in lean hogs with clients but it appears a double top could be forming around 74 in the April contract; that level acted as stiff resistance in mid-January as well. Live cattle finished about 1 penny higher on the week; clients remain short expecting a trade back near 89 cents in April. We caution any exposure in gold as we could see a $50 move either way. If lower we would suggest buying the dip. May silver closed at the 100 day moving average today about 15 cents off its highs. We like being long but would prefer to open fresh longs on a set back to $16.50. If we do see a retracement that holds we would think the next leg up would lift prices to near $18.50 mid-summer. Clients were advised to take profits on their Yen shorts today as prices have peeled off 3 cents in the last 2 sessions. We advised those still interested in currencies to get short the Loonie. We are looking for a move in the Loonie back under 95 cents. We are operating under the influence that stiff resistance comes in at .9750/.9800.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

The world hasn't fallen apart yet, spring is in the air and the buyers have been swarming looking for bargains in the stock market. Yield of short term Treasuries and money market funds are so low that money is fleeing the safety of these markets and trading off risk for yield. Amid all of the instability of the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) some sanity is coming to the surface. It does appear that Greece will receive some help however, Greece will have to put in place some austere changes that could lead to further strikes. This will be sorted out.

Next week is roll-over week for the S&P 500's and the other financial indices. Next Thursday, March 11, 2010, the front month, will be June. Ah, the thoughts of spring are in the air and the weather here in the northeast is beginning to yield to the seasonal change which is approaching.

What we can and do expect to see is a return of volatility in the markets next week as the futures traders move their positions from March to June. This is called the switch or spread. When interest rates are low, it is likely that the number will be a negative number, when interest rates are high; the number becomes more positive. In other words, for the current month the price of the futures contract will be higher than the roll month and thus you are paid to switch. This will change once interest rates begin to rise again. The switch has begun but will really be seen on Wednesday when most will move from March to June.

We are now entering real estate agents' favorite time of year, the spring real-estate buying season. People that have to move start their search now so that they might be able to find their dream homes and be moved in and settled before the fall classes begin for the children. Because there is such a large backlog of unsold houses and foreclosures in inventory, it is likely that home prices will continue to feel the pressure of too much supply in the market. The spring selling season will be better than the fall and winter season but it will fall short of expectations.

The US Dollar index has taken a breather of late and retreated. Danger hangs around 79.695 where the Market Profile chart warns of instability.

This information is confirmed by the uptrend line at 79.369. The stochastic indicator, the RSI and our own indicator are all issuing buy-signal. Please note that the Bollinger bands are getting very narrow, warning us that there will be a violent move in the near future. Naturally, it doesn't tell us in which direction that move will take the market.

The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator continues to issue a sell-signal. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for only the daily time-frame and are below the clouds for both the weekly and the monthly time-frame. Remember, we will have the jobs report on Friday and that likely will push the market around a bit.

S&P 500 daily chart shows the Thomas DeMark going higher at overbought levels, stochastic indicator overbought and issuing a sell-signal, RSI at overbought levels and our own indicator issuing a sell-signal. The downtrend line is at 1123 and the uptrend line is at 1099.53. When a channel is drawn on this chart you see the range between 1099.53, on the downside and 1138.40 on the upside. Remember, we will have some nervousness today as we await tomorrow's "Jobs" data. We believe that the data will not be as awful as expected but awful nonetheless. We are floating just above the Ichimoku Clouds on the daily and the weekly charts.

We are below the clouds on the monthly chart. NASDAQ 100 is backing and filling at very overbought and extended levels. The RSI is at overbought levels but is not issuing a sell-signal, the stochastic indicator and our own indicator are issuing a sell-signal, and the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is overbought.

The uptrend line is at 1825.41. The market looks a little heavy and likely will back and fill. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily and the weekly time-frames, we are in the clouds for the monthly time-frame. There is a downtrend line on the monthly chart at 1844.03. Should the NASDAQ 100 find the strength to close above that level, it will open the door to much higher levels. The downtrend line on the daily chart is at 1859.86. Russell 2000 is grossly overbought. As a matter of fact, the chart has pole like qualities. That said, it is difficult to say where the feeding frenzy will stop.

Actually, when you look at the daily chart, you see one bull flag and a possible second forming now. We have a sell-signal from stochastic indicator, and our own indicator. RSI grossly overbought. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily and the weekly time-frames. When you look at the weekly chart, you have to be impressed with the strength of this index.

Thus far this week the volatility has continued in the precious metals markets. We have traded a $24.70 range in Gold as investors continue to watch and speculate as Greece's fiscal crisis continues to fuel the precious metals markets. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has advised Greece to take more aggressive fiscal measures saving $4.8 Billion Euros prior to pledging support to Greece from the European Union. This scenario has sent mixed signals to traders. Many traders are speculating that a bail-out will strengthen the Euro ratio versus the U.S Dollar and therefore raising the appeal for Gold. While others believe that Greece is only the beginning to future European bail-outs. Portugal, Spain, and Ireland are struggling with their own fiscal responsibilities. This scenario would pressure the Euro and make
the U.S Dollar more appealing.

**UNEMPLOYMENT** 3/5 Friday 7:30 am (CST)

Good news on the Jobless Claims front as the U.S Department of Labor reported that initial Jobless applications fell by 29,000.

This week has been a very technical trade as the both Gold and Silver have ranged in
between key support and resistance levels The appeal for gold appears to be growing
as speculators are buying physical Gold as a "safe haven "investment and a hedge to
the uncertainty of the globes economy. Many investors are taking their cues from
the Asian sector as they have been buying physical Gold during price dips.

I believe many traders were on the side-lines this week as gold approached over-bought
levels as the U.S Dollar fell against the Euro. It is my belief that traders are concerned about the top heavy Gold going into the Friday UNEMPLOYMENT number.

The volatility in the precious metals will continue as the European Union charts its course. I am of the opinion this will drag on....

Trade Smart...

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
mdaly@pfgbest.com
877-294-4669
312-775-3014
312-563-8029

*there is Extreme risk trading futures, options and forex*

SUMMARY OF UPCOMING DATA 03/04/10
8:30 AM US WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS (475 K)
8:30 AM NON FARM PRODUCT (6.3%), ULC (-4.5%)
10:00 AM US FACTORY ORDERS 2.0%
10:00 AM US PEND HME SALES
10:30 AM EIA NAT GAS INVENTORY
11:00 AM US 3, 10, 30 YR BOND ANNOUCEMENTS

DATA RESULTS 03/03/10
ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT (-20 K)
ISM NON MANUFACTURING SURVEY (53.0/51.0)
EIA INVENTORY (CRUDE OIL) 4.1 M

US DEBT REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

US Treasuries meandered through another session without any firm commitment of direction. A retest of support after the release of data showing the US service sector grew to the highest level in nearly three years failed to maintain downward momentum as underlying concerns regarding the US employment situation remain in place. The ADP report showed a loss of 20000 jobs in the private sector, with losses contained in small and large companies. Mid sized firms actually created jobs.

Again the long end of the yield curve was the worst performer in Wednesday's session, while 2 through 10 year debt remained stable or posted small gains. In addition to awaiting data on employment, the Treasury complex will also have to contend with renewed focus on supply. On Thursday, the Treasury will announce the amount of US 3, 10, and 30 year debt coming to auction markets next week. The last round was relatively well received despite the record amount coming to auction, though foreign buyers remained sidelined. With the pullback in the US Dollar and a strategy to contend with the fiscal crisis in Greece, it will be a telling sign if foreign debt buyers return to purchasing mode or if the aftermath will extend concerns to sovereign debt backed by "questionable" balance sheets.

Technically, June 30 years remain range bound, though a possible formation of lower lows could result in the markets trending lower in line with the possible head & shoulders forming in the daily charts. Support for the contract remains at 116-24, while resistance sets up at 117-28.

US EQUITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

S&P Futures tested a key resistance level on Thursday, spurred on by a jump in the ISM Service Index. The reading of 53.0 (expected 51.0) posted the best reading since 2007 and managed to over shadow the ADP employment figures ( or at least relegate them to a glass half full/half empty scenario). Stocks fell by the latest session, as a broad based pullback led by health care prompted most traders to square up long positions ahead of uncertain reactions to the employment figures due on Friday. Additional uncertainty regarding the success and the longer term implications of the fiscal crisis in Greece and its influence on government influence in the economy and deficit spending may also help technical resistance levels in equities hold.

Technically, March S&P futures held below resistance at 1126.00. Possible volatility at these levels may allow for brief push through to 1128.00 as positive market sentiment may have some remaining influence before long position correction. Support sets up at 1110.50.

Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
Please voice your market opinions, thoughts and questions to rich@binvstgrp.com
Additional Information can be found at www.whitehallvegas.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Whitehall Investment Management, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The dollar cut thru the 20 day moving average like a hot knife thru butter and in just 2 days erased the previous 2 weeks of gains. The dollar is in control of the destiny of commodities in the short run. As we've voiced in recent posts we expect sideways to down in the dollar and the 9% appreciation since the first week of December was a gift. The Pound and Euro should catch a bid from here but I'm undecided if I want to be involved with clients. We still could get a trade to 1.38/1.39 in the Euro but my clients will be absent. They took a profit on their April calls today. If the Cable was to fill the gap from Sunday at 1.5232 we will likely get short for clients. They still hold June puts in the Yen and will try to navigate there as best as possible; we are looking for a trade to 1.10 in the coming weeks.

Depending on how tight you ran stops you were likely stopped on your April crude shorts. We think a move lower is likely but prices may stay afloat if the dollar moves south. Clients still hold May put spreads. We advised clients who were not already involved in natural gas to buy June $5/5.50 call spreads or April futures. It may be contrarian but we still like selling rallies in the Indices; our vehicle of choice is the S&P and ES. Sugar traded 2.6% lower but the 200 day MA held. Clients are buying here expecting a trade back above 26 cents in May; current price 22.05. The 100 day MA has held for the last 2 session in 30-yr bonds at 116′24. We are looking to be a seller from higher levels for clients. Those more aggressive then me could buy and run stops under to 100 day MA. We expect sideways action in the grains in the coming sessions but would advise a small long position into next weeks USDA. If forced to pick just one we suggest corn. Live cattle traded back within 1/2 cent of its contract highs; we are sellers still with clients expecting 89.00 in April.

April gold ticked slightly higher today, this allowed us to exit stage left. We advised clients to book their profits on all gold longs and move to the sidelines and wait for a set back to get re-positioned. May silver traded to its 100 day moving average but failed to penetrate. We advised our more conservative clients to book profits on their May positions and our more aggressive clients to roll their May out to July contracts. This allows them to take advantage of further upside but have time in case we get a correction.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

ICE Futures U.S. coffee for May delivery is presently trapped below a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Prices last week hit a fresh five-month low. Bears remain in firm technical command. The next downside price objective for the coffee market bears is pushing and closing May futures below solid technical support at last week's low of $1.2825 a pound. That would then open the door to a quick challenge of strong support at the September 2009 low of $1.2475.

For the coffee market bulls to begin to regain some upside near-term technical momentum, the will have to push and close May futures prices back above solid technical resistance at $1.3500. Above that lies strong chart resistance at the last "reaction high" on the daily chart, at $1.3735. Coffee futures traders will continue to keep one eye on the influential "outside markets" that include the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. The stronger U.S. dollar recently has been a bearish downside weight on the coffee futures market. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Crude was down just over 1% today closing almost $2 off its highs. We continue to suggest selling near $80/barrel expecting a trade near $75 in the coming weeks. We suggest on futures to have stops above $81, in options clients own May $75/70 put spreads. Natural gas was lower by almost 3% and though we are playing with fire we still like lightly buying April futures; buy 1/4 to 1/3 of the ultimate position you want to own and then add to it when the market confirms you are right. As for option traders we suggest purchasing the June $5/5.50 call spreads.

We remain unconvinced a trade higher in Indices can hold and have advised clients to sell into this strength. We suggest scaling into shorts in the S&P at 1111 and 1125. Clients own June 1050 and 1000 ES puts and are slightly under water. We advised clients to buy back the remainder of their 30 cent sugar calls today. They booked a profit on their short 30's and know hold May 25 cent calls and need a rally. The 200 day moving average held today in May at 21.92. Prices are oversold and have remained above the 200 day since April of 2009 when prices were under 15 cents/lb. Cotton was higher today but did mange to close 1.30 cents off its highs. Clients are positioned to take advantage of a break back below 75 cents this month. Bearish engulfing candles formed in the daily corn and wheat charts so a trade lower in the short term is likely.

Those that have yet to get in corn we suggest using this set back to get on board. 5 days running live cattle have closed lower; we may get a brief rally but sell it as a trade to 89.00 cents is what we are predicting in the April contract. I am confused in the metals; prices could go either way. We have clients lightly long both gold and silver but would be quick to exit on a close below $1106 in April gold and below $16.08 in May silver. For new entries we suggest trading light! The currency market is absolutely madness as 1-2% daily swings are common place in a variety of crosses. We continue to think the dollar is topping and as long as the Euro-currency can hold the recent lows we think a moderate bounce is likely; 1.38/1.39. The Pound remains the dog and should be sold on rallies but only for traders with a high tolerance for risk.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.