Crude advanced to a two week high today with May settling back above $107/barrel. We should see new contract highs into next week...trade accordingly. Natural gas closed less than 1% higher today but well off its lows forming a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. We have started pricing out June and July bullish options strategies; look for trade ideas into next week. I said I would not do it but I changed my mind...aggressive clients started buying bearish options trades in the ES today looking for a retracement back to 1285 in the June contract in the coming weeks.

The Australian dollar has appreciated 7% and closed higher the last eleven sessions...enough is enough. We advised clients to start scaling into bearish plays today looking for June to trade back to the 20 day MA near par in the coming weeks. We also advised clients to take a small loss on their Euro shorts.

We will need to see a healthy retracement in live cattle before getting long again...remain on the sidelines for now. Aggressive traders could get short lean hogs with tight stops. Gold and silver are back near their respective contract highs...we suggest the sidelines or shorts in gold. We continue to like picking up cocoa longs at these levels thinking we are due for a bounce. A bullish planting intentions report as Ag was the complex to be in today...corn higher by nearly 5%, soybeans 3% ad wheat 5%. If trading in this arena be long as we continue to think new crop corn and soybeans are the best place to be.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange are seeing some downside price pressure early this week, which has raised the specter of a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern forming on the daily bar chart. The February high of $104.95 is the left shoulder of the chart pattern, while the March 7 high of $108.25 is the head, and last week's high of $106.69 is the right shoulder of the chart pattern. It would take a push below the "neckline" of this head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern--located at the March low of $97.02--to confirm it. If confirmed, the downside price objective from this particular pattern would be the $88.00 area. Any near-term price strength in May crude oil futures that pushes prices back above last week's high of $106.69 would negate the head-and-shoulders top pattern and would provide the bulls with fresh upside near-term technical momentum. Near-term technical support for May crude oil futures is located at Tuesday's low of $102.70, at $102.00 and then at $101.00. Major psychological support is located at the $100.00 level. On the upside, near-term chart resistance is located at Tuesday's high of $104.00, at $105.00 and then at Monday's high of $105.76. Stay tuned!--Jim Wyckoff

In the coming days we are calling for a dollar rally so consider yourselves warned. The simple logic that the dollar bear trade has become far too crowded and we have month and quarter end this week...that simple. A breach of the 20 day MA in May Crude should confirm a break lower; that level in May is at $103.50. Aggressive traders can start scaling into shorts or get positioned in bearish option strategies. We are expecting a trade back to $97/98 in the coming weeks. The recent appreciation in natural gas has exceeded our expectations but at these levels we say the sidelines or start exploring shorts. A 20% advance in less than one month may not be justified.

Seven out of the last eight sessions the indices have made their way to positive territory but the easy money on longs has been made...we suggest the sidelines. Continue to fade rallies in the Euro, the Cable and the Yen as a US dollar dead cat bounce is around the corner...in my opinion. Live cattle are approaching record highs once again...we've pulled the remaining of our longs for clients today and will be looking to re-establish bullish plays on a pullback. Mixed bag in metals today with silver marginally higher and gold closing slightly lower. We are looking for a trade lower in both metals and advised aggressive traders to get short gold today via bear put spreads in June contracts with a target of $1375/1380 in June futures.

Cotton traded down the limit while sugar gave up nearly 3% and coffee 2% today. We continue to like the short side in the softs complex suggesting bearish plays for mainly coffee and cotton. Buy the dip in Ag this week ahead of Friday's USDA report...our favored plays are November soybeans and December corn. We advised clients to book a profit on their bearish 10-yr note trades today and will be looking for an exit door on a further decline in Euro-dollars...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Mixed economic data lead to a relatively mixed session, but selling across Treasuries did show up in afternoon trade. The government's third stab at fourth quarter GDP came in at a respectable growth rate of 3.1%. On the other hand, Michigan Sentiment was reported at a slightly lower than expected 67.5. However, as we all know...it is what consumers do that matters, not necessarily what they say.

For the second time this week, selling in Treasuries was triggered by comments made by a regional Fed President. Today, it was Philly's Plosser who proposed "..raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet...".

It is getting harder and harder to argue the benefits of low yielding, fixed income securities. Higher equities, lower gold and "stable" commodities ("stable" inflation) all seem to be reasons to look for lower Treasury prices. None-the-less, the market has fallen a long way since last week's panicked rally and could be nearing support.

Earlier this week, we were looking for a 1,2,3 top to occur, which would have meant one more run at the highs before turning over and the market did just that. Unfortunately, it wasn't easy to identify until after the fact. Our charts were showing such a rally would have reached the mid 122's but we now know the quick run to 122'08 was all the market had in it. This leaves us feeling uncertain about the near term direction and looking for a clearer signal.

That said, seasonal tendencies suggest overall weakness in the coming weeks but buyers tend to show up in late April. With this in mind, we feel like the best trade will be from the short side..ideally from better levels, if possible. We see support in the 30-year bond just over 120 and 119ish in the note. If these levels hold, the bounce could finally see the mid 122's in the long bond (121'08 in the note). If so, we'd have to lean lower. On the flip side, if there is no bounce...the June 30-year could trade back to 118, at which time we might not mind being temporarily bullish.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.


Treasury Bond and Note Option and Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

March 16 - Clients were recommended to sell the May 30 year bond 128 call for 25 ticks or more.

March 21 - Clients were recommended to offset their short May 30 year bond 128 call near 10 ticks to lock in a quick profit of about $235 per contract before transaction costs.

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading

cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com

1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

http://twitter.com/carleygarner
http://www.linkedin.com/in/carleygarner
http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

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Another Wild Week

This week brought another wild trade and vast ranges to the Gold market as the yellow metal covered a $43.90 trading range as the world investors tried to decipher all the news from the globe. Today we learned that the situation with the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant although still very serious may actually be improving. This is obviously great news ! Overnight the G7 countries agreed to the first coordinated currency intervention in over 10 years in order to weaken the value of the Japanese Yen, starting with the Bank of Japan.

Yesterday I wrote :There is a strong possibility of a military intervention from United Nation Forces into the civil war torn country of Libya. There will be a U.N vote at 5pm CST. (3/17) Muammar Ghadaffi has threatened to all air and sea traffic in the Mediterranean Sea in the event of foreign military intervention. The United Nations Security Council did indeed vote to authorize a no-fly zone and "all necessary measures "to protect Libyan people. The resolution authorized the use of military strikes. Today we learned that the Libyan government decided to comply with cease fire according to Libyan Foreign Minister as he stated:' The cease-fire will take the country back to safety"...."Libya takes great interest in protecting civilians".

It is my belief that the investment community is still using the precious Metals as a safe haven alternative investment as Libya, Bahrain , and Yemen, all Crude oil producing nations are experiencing civil unrest and it is effecting the world's supply of Oil....April Crude oil futures traded as high as $103.66 per barrel today, higher Crude prices are considered inflationary.

Historically Gold and silver retain value better than most commodities during times of inflation.

GOLD SETTLED AT $1416.10 FOR THE WEEK

SILVER SETTLED AT $35.58 FOR THE WEEK

WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS:

Tuesday's Gold session covered a volatile $48.30 range as traders continue to watch and decipher the financial repercussions concerning the Japanese economy following the earthquakes and tsunami that has crippled the country.

The precious metals markets took a beating today as it appeared the central bank of Japan was selling Gold to inject 20 trillion Yen into the money markets to help calm investor fears. Fears heightened when reports of high radiation levels were reported in Tokyo as southerly winds brought the fallout from the Fukushima nuclear plant located north of Tokyo. The avalanche sell-off was also helped by investors selling their precious metals in order to meet margins in stock portfolio's. The recent chaos in Japan has trumped everything else and as a world economic power and a leader in the automotive industry there is no question the global investors are watching.

Investors world-wide are turning their physical precious metals into cash as radiation concerns grow.

Wednesday :

We began seeing interest from the Jewelers of India. Meantime we are approaching the April / May wedding season in India. I expect that the jewelers of India will begin buying gold to help stock their shelves for the upcoming season...

Thursday :

The U.S Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims were 385,000, this was a bit better than the projected 388,000

MY SWING NUMBERS....MONDAY 3/21

APRIL GOLD

RESISTANCE # 2..........................$1436.00
RESISTANCE # 1..........................$1426.00
PIVOT ........................................$1414.00

SUPPORT # 1..............................$1404.00
SUPPORT # 2..............................$1392.00
VOLUME......................................119,000

MAY SILVER

RESISTANCE # 2..........................$36.08
RESISTANCE # 1..........................$34.90
PIVOT.......................................... $34.90
SUPPORT # 1..............................$34.39
SUPPORT # 2..............................$33.72

Mike Daly / GOLD SPECIALIST
PFG BEST

mdaly@pfgbest.com
312-563-8029
877-294-4669

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Sometimes in trading I would take luck over talent. It boils down sometimes going with your gut as technical and fundamental research are necessary tools, they alone do not insure success in trading. Crude is back above the 20 day MA advancing 3.5% today. Buy dips as we anticipate a trade over $105 in May in the coming weeks. Call it short covering or perhaps as a result of a bigger draw in today's AGA report but natural gas was higher by 5.5% trading within 1 penny of our target at $4.25. Hitting a six week high was good enough for us to book profits with clients. We see the 100 day MA at $4.25 as resistance and see support at the 20 day MA at $4.00.The 100 day MA has supported the indices now for three days running. We favor buying dips and expect a 2.5-4% rally from here.

After a 8% advance in five sessions we are prepared to reverse the trade in the Yen...exit longs at a profit and get short. We advised aggressive clients to purchase bearish ratio spreads to capitalize on a retracement back near 1.2400 in June futures. The Euro and Pound also are sales at these levels in our opinion. Positive trade in lean hogs and live cattle which are both buys; we suggest gaining bullish exposure in June contracts with respective targets at 102.00 and 118.00. The picture is unclear for us in silver so we would tighten stops or move to the sidelines. As for gold aggressive traders can buy with stops below the recent lows. Our advice is April futures or purchasing June call spreads.

Softs got a bounce today but we continue to feel this will be the weakest performing sector so pick your points for bearish trading opportunities. Ideally you used the recent set back to buy agriculture because we should trade north from here. Today corn was higher by nearly 5%, soybeans 3.75% and wheat over 7%. Clients are long corn and wheat via futures and options and still own soybean spreads that should fight back on this advance. Traders willing to weather some volatility could venture back into NOB spreads (short 30-yr bonds /long 10-yr notes). Or play the short end of the curve with bearish plays on long dated Euro-dollar contracts.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

LONDON, March 16, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- IntercontinentalExchange, a leading operator of global regulated futures exchanges, clearing houses and over-the-counter (OTC) markets, announced a new daily volume record for ICE ECX European Union Allowance (EUA) futures. On 15 March, 51,638 contracts traded on ICE Futures Europe, surpassing by more than 17% the previous record of 43,885 contracts traded on 16 December 2010.

ICE Futures Europe is the most liquid marketplace for trading carbon emission derivatives. The ICE ECX EUA futures contract is the benchmark for emissions pricing in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The ICE ECX EUA futures contract trades alongside other emissions products, including EUA options, and futures and options on Certified Emissions Reductions (CER) and Emission Reduction Unit (ERU) contracts issued under the Kyoto Protocol.

About IntercontinentalExchange

IntercontinentalExchange (NYSE: ICE) is a leading operator of regulated futures exchanges and over-the-counter markets for agricultural, credit, currency, emissions, energy and equity index contracts. ICE Futures Europe hosts trade in half of the world's crude and refined oil futures. ICE Futures U.S. and ICE Futures Canada list agricultural, currencies and Russell Index markets. ICE is also a leading operator of central clearing services for the futures and over-the-counter markets, with five regulated clearing houses across North America and Europe. ICE serves customers in more than 70 countries. www.theice.com

The following are trademarks of IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. and/or its affiliated companies: IntercontinentalExchange, ICE, ICE and block design, ICE Futures Europe and ICE Clear Europe. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. For more information regarding registered trademarks owned by IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. and/or its affiliated companies, see https://www.theice.com/terms.jhtml

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 - Statements in this press release regarding IntercontinentalExchange's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2010, as filed with the SEC on February 9, 2011.

ICE-ENGY

SOURCE IntercontinentalExchange

According to Caged, the Brazilian economy created 280,799 formal jobs in February. Adjusting for seasonal factors, the economy added 273K jobs in the month, 89K more than in January.

Formal job creation was led by the service sector which added 134K jobs into the economy, its best performance ever. Manufacturing industry presented the second best performance in the month, with 60K jobs being created. In terms of year-to-date performance, the service sector lead by far with a total of 208K jobs added followed by manufacturing industry with 113K.

In terms of 12-month performance, the Brazilian economy created a total of 2,178,993 formal jobs, recovering a bit compared to January, but still below the all time high of 2,269,607 reached last August. The service sector continued to be the main contributor (831K) followed by the industry (577K). However, we see different trends among the sectors with manufacturing and construction trending lower while commerce and services trending higher.

Finally, our assessment is that payrolls in Brazil should contribute to keep demand strong suggesting that the BCB should soon announce new macro-prudential measures to curb consumption, especially of durable goods which rose again in January.

Brazil-Formal-Job-Creation-Report.pdf

The week started with little excitement but its only Monday...After four negative sessions Crude appears to have claimed a small victory trading slightly higher as of this post. If the 20 day MA holds in the next few days, in May at $99.50 we will explore gaining bullish exposure for clients again. In early dealings May natural gas approached $4.10, a two week high. We advised some clients to offset their $4 calls. Those holding futures should trail stops and we also advised those holding the $4.25 strike or higher to hold their ground. As of this post the indices are off by approximately 1%...clients were advised to book profits on their shorts being we could not forge a new low. On a rally we will likely get those clients short once again.

The US dollar must hold last weeks low or we could see the flood gates open...stay tuned. The only new trade in forex I see is buying the Yen as a new contract high is likely in the coming weeks. Continue to buy dips in live cattle...some aggressive clients today bought June contracts anticipating a trade north of 1.20. Gold and silver could go either way...we favor a break lower but have been wrong on that recent forecast.

Sugar and cotton were hit hard today giving up 3.7% and 3.5% respectively. While we have no current interest in sugar with clients we do think cotton could continue to track lower. A close below the 20 day MA should confirm a break lower; in May at 196.50 and 187.25 in July. Mixed bag in agriculture but most Ag's were slightly positive. Clients were buyers of May corn call options and December futures today. The trend line that has held for several months has been tested twice and held. We suggest gaining bullish exposure before the "Planting Intentions" report at month end.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Gold Remains Resilient On Safe Haven Buying

Gold and Silver finished the week strong as world events have investors looking for alternative "safe haven" investments. After China reported its first monthly trade deficit in 11 months yesterday which certainly helped fuel the profit taking sell-off in anticipation of future interest rate hikes by China's central bank to combat the countries historically high inflation. However, it is my belief that global investors are looking at the entire global picture and have once again chose the precious metals as their investment choice.

Savvier investors are using the Gold and silver markets as a hedge against higher energy prices as well as safe haven buying as geo-political tensions in the Middle-east and North Africa escalate and threaten the flow of Crude oil.

Also the European union debt crisis has once again resurfaced as Moody's downgraded both Greece and Spain's credit rating this week. Obviously all of the above are "bullish" precious metals and the markets are reflecting that as demand is forcing prices higher...

Saif al-Islam Ghaddafi the son of Libyan leader Muammar Ghaddafi Pledged that the Libyan government will never surrender and Western Countries will lose if they support the rebel uprising. Obviously this chaos / civil war is a long way from being settled ....And meanwhile Libya is not supplying Crude oil. Stay tuned...

This week produced another all-time high in Gold. Globex April Gold traded as high as $1445.70. Also Globex May Silver traded a new 31 year high as it traded $36.73 this week, truly amazing when you consider on January the 28th Gold traded a low of $1309.10 that is a move of $136.60 in a little over 5 weeks. The Global data as well as the geo-political tensions are helping support the resiliency of the precious metals.

This week the Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims is 379,000. This was worse than the projected 376,000

MY SWING NUMBERS FOR 3/14

APRIL GOLD

RESISTANCE # 2..................$1434.00
RESISTANCE # 1..................$1427.00
PIVOT..................................$1416.00
SUPPORT 3 1......................$1410.00
SUPPORT # 2......................$1398.00
VOLUME..............................146,000

MAY SILVER

RESISTANCE # 2..................$37.25
RESISTANCE # 1..................$36.61
PIVOT..................................$35.33
Support # 1........................$34.65
Support # 2........................$33.40

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
mdaly@pfgbest.com
877-294-4669
312-563-8029

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

What will be the next catalyst to get markets moving in either direction? Crude finished marginally lower today...it had been several weeks last we saw two consecutive negative closes. We smell a $5 correction and aggressive traders can gain bearish exposure willing to let go at a loss on a trade above $107 in May. Natural gas challenged the 20 day MA again today at $4 in May. We favor bullish exposure via futures and options with an initial target of $4.25. Back to back inside days in the indices with a close just below the 20 day MA. It is any one's guess from here but our bias is bearish with some clients holding June ES put spreads at about even.

The dollar took a break today but we still favor a rally and would be fading advances in the Euro, Swissie and Pound. Use a trade below the 20 day MA to be a buyer of June lean hogs; that level is 101.40. Live cattle surged to new record highs...this is a true bull market. Silver had been unable to hold onto its gains the last three sessions. Aggressive clients opted to establish bearish ratio spreads, short (1) silver against (2) longs in gold. The idea is as metals correct more money will be made in silver than lost in gold. Copper lost 3% today and is off 8% in the last week. If we break the 100 day MA look out below. Prices have not penetrated that level since copper prices were $1 lower than their current price.

In the softs sector we advise bearish exposure in cocoa and cotton as both could see a 5-10% setback in the coming weeks...in our opinion. Agriculture sold off as investors booked profits on previous bought longs ahead of tomorrow's USDA report. We hold soybean spreads and a bullish CBOT wheat trade into the report. We suggest scaling into longs in new crop corn, soybeans and wheat on this set back. We are flat in our clients NOB spreads but will look to re-establish (short 30-yr bonds/long 10-yr notes) after the ensuing rally. Did anyone catch the story that PIMCO is dumping its' government debt. If the "bond king" is not buying Treasuries neither am I.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

May copper futures prices have backed well down from the February contract and all-time high of $4.6575 a pound. Prices Tuesday hit a fresh two-week low of $4.2540 and are poised to push below strong technical support at the February low of $4.2435. Recent price action in the copper futures market has seen a nine-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart negated, with prices now in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily chart. A close below strong technical support at the January low of $4.2185 in May copper futures would produce more serious near-term chart damage to then suggest a quick price move down to major psychological support at the $4.00 level.

For the copper market bulls to regain fresh upside near-term technical momentum to suggest a price up-trend can be re-established they would have to produce a close above strong technical resistance at last week's high of $4.5540. Importantly, veteran market watchers know the copper futures market can be a leading indicator for trending price action in other markets, including the U.S. stock indexes. The fact the copper futures market has seen near-term chart damage inflicted is an early warning shot across the bow for the other metals markets, the crude oil market and the U.S. stock indexes. Stay tuned!--Jim Wyckoff

One week down in March and commodities appear to be marching to a different beat. Crude oil will end near its session high and at a fresh 2011 high. Bulls are in control but be cautious as $3-5 swings are becoming common place. We've seen a $15 appreciation in the last two weeks with virtually no correction so again be careful. Natural gas prices are devalued and in our opinion a buy...but once again we are catching a falling dagger so do not establish a large position just yet.

The indices are still trying to pick a direction wandering in a trading range now for the last two weeks. Either direction would not surprise me so stay on top of your positions whether they are long or short. A close above 1340 in the S&P likely means a test of 1400 while a settlement below 1295 would likely signal 1200. The dollar traded down on the week but we're thinking a bounce is due into the coming weeks...trade accordingly.

We have advised livestock traders to move to the sidelines on a rumor of mad cow disease...wait for new recommendations next week. Silver and gold surged to new highs...we have advised clients to lighten up from lower levels and yes we left a ton of money on table. This has been a frustrating sector but it really feels like a bubble to some extent to my clients and I. We advised clients to exit their sugar longs in early dealings at a very minimal loss and fortunately took that money short cocoa before the 2% break. We are looking for cocoa prices to back off 5% in the coming weeks...trade accordingly.

Though the trades are far from profitable at these levels we still like the idea of bearish options exposure in coffee and cotton as well. Longs in wheat are cooperating but we could see another 15-20 cents lower in corn so hold off on fresh purchases. As for soybeans some clients remain in their July/November futures spreads. We re-established NOB spreads for some clients at slightly better levels and sold into the rally in Euro-dollars today for aggressive clients.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

The Treasury rally backed off on Wednesday ahead of the government's latest read on the employment picture. Earlier in the week ADP predicted the non-farm payrolls to see a considerable increase and analysts estimates are looking for about 190,000 jobs added. Even a number slightly below expectations would be considered a victory and makes it difficult to be a Treasury bull. However, that is exactly what might hold the market up. Traders seem to have gotten too comfortable being bearish interest rate products and although we've seen a miraculous recovery from the lows there is some risk of a short squeeze. Accordingly, bearish traders must look for upswings near resistance to establish positions, chasing markets lower might prove to be difficult.

Also, there are articles and talk floating around in regards to the Fed itself being a big part of Treasury demand. Some claim that the end of the POMO program could pull the rug from underneath the market. However, the same people (business news media) also predicted Treasuries to rally once POMO was implemented yet in both instance the market traded in a "buy the news, sell the fact" manner. In other words, Treasury futures rallied on hints of quantitative easing but once the program actually took effect the market experienced selling pressure. This makes us wonder if we will see the opposite effect when POMO expires. While it is hard to imagine a full-fledged rally based on fundamentals, it isn't difficult to envision a painful short-squeeze to shake up the bears.

We were a little surprised to see Thursday's sharp selling, but we should have realized there would be position squaring ahead of Friday's number. For this reason, we aren't giving up on an extension of this rally just yet. Support in the 10-year note lies at 117'24 and again near 117'01. In the long bond, this translates into 117'28 and 116'24.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.Treasury Bond and Note Option and Futures Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.

Flat

Carley Garner

Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading

cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

http://twitter.com/carleygarner
http://www.linkedin.com/in/carleygarner
http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Comex gold futures prices Wednesday morning scored a fresh all-time record high of $1,438.20 an ounce, basis the April contract, as of this writing. Meantime, Comex silver futures notched another fresh 31-year high of $34.89 an ounce, basis May futures. The precious metals bulls are benefiting from safe-haven investment demand, inflation fears and a weakening U.S. dollar index.

Technically, the gold market bulls have the strong overall technical advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. On the longer-term charts, gold prices have been trending higher for 10 years. Gold bulls' next near-term upside technical breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at $1,450.00 an ounce. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,400.00. May Comex silver futures bulls also have the strong overall near-term and longer-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old uptrend on the daily chart.

The next downside price breakout objective for the silver bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $32.50. Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $35.00 an ounce. Importantly, technicals at present suggest the path of least resistance for both metals' prices will remain sideways to higher until there is a strong near-term technical clue to suggest the powerful price uptrends are coming to an end. Stay tuned!--Jim Wyckoff