Archive | April, 2011

Month of Volatility

In my ten year career I can confidently say this is one of the most volatile months I’ve ever experienced in commodities…what will May bring? Crude oil traded above $114 in the June contract but closed below that level so although carrying bearish positions into the weekend is not our favorite play clients remain short […]

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Status Quo from Fed

Nothing new to report from Uncle Ben and his cronies but at least there was more talk of inflation with rising commodity prices. The $2.50 range carried on in Crude again today as traders try to figure out what direction from here. Our bias remains bearish as we’re expecting June to trade back near $109 […]

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May 2011 Comex silver

Silver Bulls May Now Be Exhausted at Higher Price Levels

May Comex silver futures on Monday spiked to a fresh 31-year high of $49.82 an ounce and came within a whisker of touching major psychological resistance at the $50.00 level. However, prices Monday then backed well off the daily high and closed near mid-range. Market action in silver Tuesday is seeing strong downside price pressure […]

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Positioning for the FOMC

Brace for the Fed as we expect it to be a market mover. Indecision in the oil market as prices close virtually unchanged today. If we fail to make a new contract high in the next few sessions we should resume the set back we’ve been forecasting, in June that would be a trade over […]

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Long Weekend Ahead

Four trading days behind us and now a three day weekend…Happy Easter Y’all. Crude finished up for the third consecutive session closing at a two week high. We have a small bearish play on with some clients that are currently carrying a loss. We will ride it out but do not wish to establish new […]

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Crude Oil Bulls Regaining Upside Technical Momentum

Crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were sharply higher in late-morning dealings Wednesday, pushing above $111.00 a barrel. The market got a fundamental boost Wednesday from a bullish weekly DOE storage report that showed an unexpected draw in crude oil stocks. From a technical perspective, the crude oil market […]

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Using MA’s to Trade

Regular readers understand how much I utilize and how valuable moving averages (MA) are when trading commodities. A lower low and lower high in Crude shifts the momentum lower but we still would like to see a settlement below the 20 day MA to confirm a price decline. That level is $108 in the June […]

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Option Queen Letter

President Obama doing what he does best, campaigning! We remember when he first rose to the office of President; he could not lead the nation and only knew how to campaign. Well, he is back in his comfort zone. A campaign slogan “are you better off today than you were a year ago” might well […]

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Reflation

A term not used in quite some time but if commodities continue to surge higher as they did this week expect this word to re-emerge. The 20 day MA has supported Crude for the last four sessions; in June at $107.70. We’re still expecting a trade lower but on a settlement above $111/barrel we would […]

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U Turn

Not a trend shift but rather just a counter trend move in a number of markets is underway…in our opinion. June Crude will finish slightly higher as the 20 day MA has held for the last two sessions. We’re looking for another $3-5 sell off in the futures but we expect it to be a […]

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