Archive | June, 2011

Listen to the Market

Crude held yesterday’s low finishing marginally higher today. This is a first sign that the downside movement may be drawing to a close. We are not advocating fresh long entries yet but we’re getting close…stay tuned. As for the distillates hedgers should have light long protection on in fall heating oil and RBOB contracts. Natural […]

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CHINA tapping the brakes

A healthy move by China overnight should aid in further appreciation in most commodities in the medium and long term…in my opinion. Higher low and higher high in Crude likely helped by outside markets and the move in China overnight. On a settlement over $100/ barrel look for upside momentum to build…we are cautiously bullish […]

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As Weather Cools Markets Heat Up

Commodity traders should pay attention to any extremes in weather, too much or too little precipitation, too much or to little heat…any extreme. Crude is approaching three week lows down nearly 2.50% today as of this post. In the last five weeks Crude has been a buy at these levels but past performance is not […]

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june10note11

Treasury dilemma: Debt Crisis vs. Safety

Investors are seeking quality, but with talk of defaults and debt ceilings, Treasuries just aren’t the stellar attraction of “fear money” they once were. At the trough of equity trade in Friday’ session, the long bond was treading water near 126, which was a gain of less than a handle on the day. Although 25 […]

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Two Sided Trade

This week’s activity has been far from one sided as markets are fluctuating in both directions with no clear direction. Weakness in equities, a rising dollar, a slowdown in China or a production increase in Saudi Arabia take your pick but Crude was down almost 2.7% today. We used today’s set back as a buying […]

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july-corn2011

July Corn Futures Power to New All-Time Record

July corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday morning hit a new all-time record high of $7.93 a bushel, surpassing the previous high of $7.88 3/4, scored on April 11. Prices did then back off the daily high and were trading near mid-range as of this writing. July futures prices have tacked […]

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OPEC sets the tone

No action by OPEC today reverses Crude and from here we should see higher pricing. July futures settled back over the 9 day MA and we should be on way to the 40 day MA at $104.50. The only dynamic that could slow appreciation is if we see a dramatic pop in the US dollar […]

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Commodity Bull Market is here to stay

Clearly the Fed has no clue and if this is a market with NO inflation I’d hate to see a commodity market with inflation. Crude fights back in late dealings to close marginally positive in today’ sessions. My opinion is this price action was position squaring and light buying ahead of Bernanke’s speech today and […]

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july2011-cotton

Cotton Futures Still in Near-Term Price Uptrend

ICE Futures U.S. cotton for July delivery on Friday hit a fresh five-week high of $1.6849 a pound and then backed off sharply on some profit-taking pressure from recent gains. There is solid follow-through selling pressure on Monday morning, but no serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted as intra-day trading action remains volatile. July […]

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A New Month

All the traders that sold in May…are they back already as buyers? Crude oil fell back today but did manage to remain above the 9 day MA; in July at $100.35. We remain mildly bullish but we are smack dab in the middle of the recent trading range so trading either direction is not risk-less […]

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