Archive | October, 2011

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Is my Money Safe in Commodities

That is a loaded question because investing in commodities is not safe however if a clearing firm goes out of business and you have a futures account the answer is yes. With the passing of MF Global I was asked this question a number of times today so I wanted to put all prospective commodity […]

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No Follow Through

After all the huge moves we experienced yesterday one would expect follow through today which did not happen. Next week as a new month begins it will be critical to pay attention where the money flows. As long as Crude does not make new highs we like scaling into bearish short exposure thinking an interim […]

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European Vacation

European Vacation – May be one of my favorite Chevy Chase movies but in this case describes where the policy makers heads are at. Seriously when will governments get out of the way and let systems fail and stop kicking the can down the road. On what planet should a 50% write-down be viewed as […]

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Risk of Deflation?

Across my Reuters terminal today I thought I was seeing things with talk of deflation. Has anyone looked at longer term pricing on commodities say over the last ten years…Really? Crude will close lower by 2.5% today trading back near $90/barrel after being within spitting distance of $95 just yesterday. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement drags […]

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Decision Time

A number of markets are at critical points and will decide in the next few sessions if prices reverse from current levels or we have a change in trend. Notable markets include stock indices and Crude oil. Crude was higher by nearly 5% today lifting prices to three month highs above $91/barrel. We do not […]

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Don’t Get Sucked In

Just when it looks like a market is on the verge of breaking down or breaking out to the upside the market reverses. Two examples: Stocks appear that they are moving higher bonds look like the are trading lower but we are not believers of either just yet. We’re suggesting the sidelines in a number […]

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Read the Tea Leaves

Maybe it is the money some clients have lost on their longs or maybe I’m getting a better feel for the market but I expect prices to head south in a number of commodities…trade accordingly. Crude will close virtually unchanged today but the volatility continues as $2,500-4,000 daily ranges are becoming more and more common. […]

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Market Challenges

Hands down the recent months have been the most challenging markets to trade in my career. I think it is a combination of uncertainties, volatility and the undeniable correlations between different asset classes. Tomorrow is the ltd for November so December is now the lead month in Crude oil. After a spike on the EIA […]

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Managing Expectations

When constructing a trade make sure you understand the risks and have realistic expectations. The volatility is here to stay so traders need to make sure they are flexible and mange the trade once you’re in the market. This is not your father’s commodity market! Surprisingly…at least to me Crude oil is approaching $90/barrel, a […]

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Out of Equities Into….

Based on today’s action it appears money is leaving the stock market and going elsewhere. We see money finding its way into the dollar, Treasuries and commodities …there was no clear winner at least today. Crude oil has reached over bought levels and based on outside market influence we still are thinking a correction should […]

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