So what is wrong with a bull market? This has been a wonderful reprieve from the doom and gloom we have lived with since the Lehman Bros sacrifice. Don't try to figure out when it is going to end; it is like sunshine it is great for the spirit and soul but bad for the skin. The bull market will help the Obama campaign and if it lasts just a wee bit long, it will help his re-election. Remember that we can get skin cancer from the sun. That works for the market as well.

This week is a very light week for economic releases and earnings so the market will likely be a little boring for those who love action. We noticed that the NASDAQ 100, the leader of the bull market band, took the day off in the Friday session and felt the pangs of the sellers overwhelm the buyers. Not much damage but a stark difference from the rally seen in the S&P 500.

Spring is just around the corner and although we haven't heard much from the green shoots camp, there seem to be green shoots everywhere. We do have major problems to deal with but even the biggest bears have turned in their claws and joined the bull camp. Bob Farrell's rule number nine: "When all the experts and forecasts agree--something else is going to happen." We would agree and it might be a good time to purchase a few protective wing puts on the market. (A wing put is a put that has little chance or probability of paying off and is like a lotto ticket than a well thought out investment.) Buying a wing put is buying into the "black swan" and is about as likely. That said, a professional in the market will not sell these options because they are not worth the risk. Most of us in the Russell ring bought these puts rather than selling them. They cost about $25 and they served to reduce the margin on your other positions if sold, they would increase your margin far more than the $25 you would get.

Here is some advice, the markets do not go up in a straight line nor do they go down in a straight line. This market has been going up in a straight line and for now, that is all well and good, but remember it will correct so plan on it.

Wednesday: January existing home sales are released at 10:00.
Friday: February Michigan Sentiment is released at 9:45-10:00 and January New Home Sales are released at 10:00.

A daily chart of the US Dollar index shows we have broken above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement off of the January 13th high that had been acting as resistant only to find new resistant at the 79.85 level. A candle stick chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern with a large upper wick (demonstrating strong resistance above) followed by a doji (signaling indecision). Turning to our indicators, the RSI is flat at the 50 level, the Stochastic is pointing down in negative territory with the fast stochastic beginning to turn up and our own indicator is issuing a sell signal. The upper Bollinger band is at 80.084 and the lower is 78.518 and we can see the two of them coming together. The 20 day moving average is at 79.301 and seems to be acting as support. In the near term we foresee the 61.8 Fibonacci number acting as support and the dollar index eventually pushing through the 80.084 resistance. Above these levels we see 80.60 as the next stop followed by 81.056. That is not to say there won't be some backing and filling between now and then!

The S&P 500 was the best performer in the Friday option's expiration for February. This index is climbing along the upper edge of the Bollinger band staying comfortably above the 20 period moving average. The market has maintained its rally inside the channel lines. The channel lines are 1375.84 and 1336.15. The 5-period exponential moving average is at 1351.72. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1365.99 and the lower edge is seen at 1298.22. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. Our next area of resistance is 1373.50 which is an old high seen in May of 2011 basis the futures continuation chart. All of the indicators that we follow herein are pointing higher. We have been overbought since the end of December never dropping even to the neutral level, so until the market totally loses its upside momentum and retreats say to the neutral level, we will remain positive. We are concerned that we have come too far too fast and that there will be some pain along the way. With that in mind we suggest you purchase some wing puts that are way out of the money and further suggest that you keep your trailing stops tight.

The NASDAQ 100 suffered a decline in the Friday option's expiration trading session. This index reminds us of the pole like qualities seen in the days of the tech bubble. The appreciation in this index has been stellar. We have been hugging the upper Bollinger band for all of the 2012 trading year, well so far we have. We have been, for the most part, trading above the 5-day exponential moving average. This really looks like a bull in action. That said, we are due for a correction and we would not be surprised to see that in the very near future. The RSI is losing ground and, although still overbought, pointing lower. Our own indicator has just issued a sell-signal. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is flat at neutral and the stochastic indicator is about to issues a sell-signal but has not done so as of this writing. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. If you were to continue counting above the 13 level, you would see that we are at 18. Clearly we can go higher but as we do, we open the door to the opposite movements. We have seen rallies like this one in sugar where we actually went to a 24 count before the market corrected and printed a 24 on the bottom. Interesting stuff.

The Russell 2000 ended the Friday session just about where it started the session. We seem to be bumping up against the upper edge of a rectangle. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. The 5-day exponential moving average is at 823.35. The top of the Bollinger band is at 842.57 and the lower edge is seen at 777.94. Although all indicators continue to issue a buy-signal, the stochastic indicator and our own indicator are curling over to the downside. Until or unless this index closes above 833 and stays above that level for two day, it is likely that we will retreat.

Crude oil broke out to the upside in the Friday session. Now the question remains will it be able to stay there for another day? We find the indicators grossly overbought although pointing higher. The 5-day exponential moving average is at 102.15. The top of the Bollinger band is at 103.14 and the lower edge is seen at 95.96. We closed above the upper band and would expect to see either the bands expand or the market retreat back inside the bands. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. When looking at the monthly chart, we see that the next resistance level is at 105, 107,114.83....yikes! So much for deflation.

Gold retreated in the Friday session but remains in the flag of the chart. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. The 5-day exponential moving average is at 1724.35. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1764.84 and the lower edge is seen at 1682.22. We have plenty of overhead supply in gold so it isn't going to be a slam dunk rally. If this market can move above 1800, we will open the doors to the old highs and possibly printing new highs but until that time, it looks as though we are stuck backing and filling for a while.

This will likely be my last post from MB Wealth as I have chose to close my brokerage. I am in the final stages of a new employment contract with a large Commodity firm in Chicago. This is goodbye temporarily but I will be back in the coming weeks. Please do not hesitate to reach out to me via email or telephone if you want to continue to have access to my comments.

Crude is approaching the $104 level as forecast in recent posts. We've advised clients to start liquidating longs after an $8 run in the last two weeks I think all the activity in Iran has taken Crude too high too quick...just my opinion. The fact that the distillates are not trading higher alongside Crude also supports my thesis that prices may be over stretched. Natural gas has picked up steam the last two sessions poised to trade above the 40 day MA for the first time in 5 months. A trade above $2.85 in March that holds would convince me a bottom is in and longs are trade able. Until then I have no interest.

Stocks are trading near four year highs but probing to pick a top was non eventful this week as a false break down was exactly that false. I am uncomfortable advising longs and will not try calling a top again. Stand clear until we see consecutive settlements below the 9 day MA. In the Dow at 12835 and in the S&P at 1348. After five positive weeks gold had closed lower the last two weeks. I remain in the camp that prices come lower...as I said yesterday a settlement over $1740 would signal higher ground and to cut losses on bearish trade. Silver has traded lower seven out of the last eight sessions even though prices are only $1/ounce off their recent highs I see more downside. Next support in March is seen at $31.50 followed by $29.75.

Copper was lower everyday this week losing nearly 7% in that time frame. I'm expecting a additional 4-6% correction which would complete a 50% Fibonacci retracement on the move in the last five months...trade accordingly. Finally a positive showing in coffee after seven straight losers. DO not expect much more than a bounce before the onslaught resumes. Live cattle continues to march higher...unfortunately without my clients on board. We have been bullish for months but jumped off this train but premature. Clients wait for a pullback to get long.

Lean hogs also were slight gainers running into resistance at the same level that capped further upside weeks ago. On a trade back near 88.00 cents in April we suggest probing longs. Buyers are emerging in grains but until prices correct I am a spectator with clients. The Yen should continue lower but all other crosses appear to be consolidating so I see no long or short opportunities at the moment...move to the sidelines. Looking at longer term (weekly and monthly) charts in the Yen this could just be the beginning.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

I generally report on what happens today but how money is made is anticipating what will happen tomorrow. There are no major moves that I am forecasting in the immediate future...it remains a traders market so the key is to manage all your individual positions. Monitoring risk and booking profits. Quietly Crude oil has gained ground six out of the last eight sessions. I suspect in the short run we can get a probe near $104/barrel but daily charts are starting to look overbought so unless circumstances are heightened in the Middle East I am still expecting a range bound market and oil to trade back near the mid 90′s in coming weeks. Heating oil and RBOB continue to inch towards one year highs but like Crude oil prices are approaching overbought levels. So in terms of the up cycle I think we are approaching extremes. Protect profits on longs.

Natural gas traded higher by nearly 6% today as the back and forth action continues. Until prices get out of this 25 cent range look elsewhere. Stocks fought back today to retake the 9 day MA and get back previous day's losses. An interim top is likely being made but if we make a fresh 2012 high I would cut loses on all bearish trades. Gold and silver closed near their session highs today after reversing early losses. This was a positive development as selling was rejected in both metals. As long as silver stays below $34 and gold below $1700 I remain bearish thinking more selling is due.

Cocoa appreciated 2.5% today to close above the 100 day MA for the first time since late August. Expect further upside and now use the 100 day MA as support. Day seven of a coffee sell off that is showing no signs of letting up. Trail stops on bearish trades and let the markets take you out...hopefully at lower levels. Fresh contract high in live cattle today. I am willing to buy a dip...if it doesn't happen I'll miss the trade...cannot be in them all. Mixed bag in Agriculture today with the soybean complex lower and corn and wheat higher. I favor buying a break. The dollar index traded up to but failed to take out the 50 day MA. A level that had not been obtained in almost one month. My expectation is that on the net attempt prices will get through that level moving toward 82.00 in March.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

I am out on a limb saying we will finally get a correction on the stock market after the impressive bullish start we've experienced ytd. If stocks depreciate where will that money go? Crude is trading at a one month high trading higher by 1.3% today. Continue to trail stops as I still expect an attempt at $104 this week or next. RBOB and heating oil were higher but both failed to hold onto early gains. If prices fail to make new highs expect a correction very soon. We have advised hedgers to tighten stops or lighten up as to not give back profits on a correction. Two sided trade continues in natural gas as all yesterday's gains were given back today. Stand clear as whippy action is likely to continue.

Stocks closed lower the last two days settling below the 9 day MA today. Move to the sidelines as I am expecting a correction. Aggressive traders could get short with tight stops but this may be premature and you are attempting to pick a top which generally does not work. The only reason I voice this is the attractive risk/reward dynamic. After three losing days gold bounces back today getting back all its losses. I still favor selling strength thinking we get a trade under $1700 in the coming weeks. $33 appears to be the line in the sand in silver but when that level gives way I'm thinking a trade under $31/ounce should follow soon thereafter. In three short days cocoa has appreciated nearly 11% lifting prices to three week highs. On a trade above the 100 day MA a level that halted gains in late January expect more buying to emerge. That break out level comes in at 2410 in March.

Coffee lost 1.9% today to close below the $2 level as predicted. I expect further weakness and would not rule out a further 5% depreciation. I am not a buyer of live cattle or lean hogs until we get a break in prices even though I think we see higher ground and likely new contract highs in both commodities. April live cattle an entry closer to $1.25 and in hogs closer to 85.00 cents. Corn and wheat continued to lose ground today as soybeans were higher but running on fumes. My opinion is a break lower across the Ag sector but my money would be on the sidelines looking for a long entry on that break. If the dollar continues to gain as I expect it will sell rallies in other crosses. My opinion was an interim high was obtained in all crosses last week...trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Making money in commodities is nice but allot sometime today to spend with loved ones! Crude's gain today was minute but intra-day prices were at three weeks highs approaching the $102 level. Echoing yesterday's thoughts we should inch higher near the $104 area in the coming weeks but I do not see much more than that especially in the face of a strengthening greenback. Natural gas was higher by nearly 5% but prices are still 30 cents under support and an area I would feel confident in saying we're out of the woods. Stocks traded under the 9 day MA but will manage a push to close above that pivot point once again. I want to say we're exhibiting signs of a top but I learned a long time ago you cannot pick tops or bottoms. As long as the 9 day MA holds on a closing basis I am friendly.

Gold continues to creep lower making its way to the $1675/1690 this week if not next in my opinion. Silver has lost very little ground of late but most of my technical indicators are signaling a bigger correction and if the dollar can gain some momentum that would also support a break. I am expecting March to trade closer to $31 in the coming weeks...trade accordingly. Sugar can be sold with stops above the recent highs in my opinion. Trail stops down on bearish OJ trades. The 50 day MA is acting as mild support but on a breach expect the 100 day MA to come into play about 10 cents beneath current levels. Coffee broke down today as forecast on its way to trade under a$2 for the first time since late 2010 in my opinion. At this moment I would not rule out an additional 5-8% depreciation.

The entire livestock complex was higher by 1-2% today. I currently have no client exposure and may miss this upside move if it happens from here. Grains are a buy from lower levels but until we get a break I would be on the sidelines. The dollar gained for the third consecutive session closing above the 20 day MA for the first time in three weeks. I expect further appreciation and would be a seller of all other crosses. The Yen seems to be the furthest along on its downward move but there should be more to come and the Loonie is the laggard so could be the best potential short. All other crosses could be faded on any advance in my opinion.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

It is said the S&P 500 is a good barometer of the overall economy. The question is can prices overcome the 1350 level? A number of times in the last 10-15 years this level has been reached but only once prices managed to keep trading higher. Probability wise prices are likely due for a correction. A level that has been hit Crude oil is higher by almost 2% closing back above the $100 level. From here it appears we see a trade back to $104 in the next few sessions. My bias has shifted back to be being bullish as long as $98 holds in March. I think it may be difficult to see much more upside especially if heating oil and RBOB trade sideways to down. Sideways action continues in natural gas...look elsewhere. In early dealings stocks traded to their 2012 highs backing off slightly as it appears we will get a close approximately 0.50% higher.

Gold has closed lower 5 out of the last 7 sessions as prices have started to peel off. My inclination is to stay in bearish trades until prices reach at least my first objective...$1690. For almost 3 weeks silver has tread water wandering around the $34 level. I continue to think a break is coming and wait for confirmation. Confirmation that I'm correct or that I'm wrong, which would happen on a settlement above 34.50 or below $33. OJ looks set to break the 50 day MA for the first time in 2012. Expect further weakness to come. Coffee lost ground for the last 4 days and momentum traders should accentuate a further move dragging coffee closer to $2. The 20 day MA continues to act as the line in the sand as Treasuries have flirted with that pivot point now for weeks. You know the story above that line bullish and below that line the sentiment is bearish...trade accordingly.

Live cattle were higher by 1% today but I'm still suggesting longs wait for a lower entry. Lean hogs closed under the 20 day MA as patient traders should get a long entry in April closer to 85.00 in the coming weeks. Wheat and corn dug in its heels to gain slightly today but soybeans may be back on the move registering the largest gain in the complex picking up nearly 2%. More impressive was the chart with prices breaking out to fresh 4 month highs. If this is not a false breakout expect $13 to be challenged in the near future. Although all the crosses were higher today and the dollar was lower I expect a reversal in that action soon. That means a bounce in the dollar and for international currencies to back off. I am still waiting for confirmation but we will likely get it this week.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Do not get complacent because the market is quiet. Inaction can sometimes cause more damage than action. Do not forget to manage your trades. Crude oil is flirting with the $100/barrel level once again. I am mildly bullish but trade small as a trade back under $97.50-98 could mean lower ground. It is not the strength in Crude that I am impressed with but rather the relentlessness in the distillates that continue to push higher. Heating oil and RBOB are approaching the highest level they have seen in almost one year. I've advised hedgers top keep their hedges on to protect from further upside but be cognizant that we could have a violent reversal so look for any signs of a reversal. Natural gas is showing signs of life but still is having trouble retaking its 9 and 20 day MA's...a sure sign that there could be weakness soon.

Big surprise stocks inch out another positive trade. Continue to use the 9 day MA as your pivot point and major support. Gold and silver continue to exhibit signs of an interim top. I still think a correction is likely in the immediate future. I will not change my mind unless gold trades over $1770 and silver over $35. Cotton has lost ground the last four sessions and with prices back under the 50 day MA for the first time in 2012 fade rallies as I expect a challenge of the December lows 6-7% lower from current levels. OJ and coffee which I drank both this AM should continue lower as well...do not rule out coffee joining OJ under the $2 mark. Treasuries continue their slide...bearish trades should trail stops and continue to use the 20 day MA in 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds as their pivot point.

Mixed bag in meats with cattle slightly lower and hogs a small gainer. I am advising buying dips in both. This trade may take a few weeks to set up so be patient. No surprises from the USDA and based on the reaction we will likely get a break in grains allowing a long entry from lower levels. Wheat today was the main loser shedding over 2% while corn and soybeans were marginally lower. The closer prices get to the level we saw in the beginning of the year the larger interest I have in advising bullish trade to clients. With Central banks keeping rates as is there has not been fireworks in FX with the exception of the Yen. The Yen is down for the last five days losing 2.25%. This could be the beginning of larger leg that could drag prices back to levels seen in late October...in my opinion.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Non event in the markets today but it does feel like markets are taking a breath for a big move...I am just torn on what direction. As trades develop I will try to keep you informed. Crude will close above $97 on the March contract today which puts the bulls back in control. Support is seen between $97-98 and aggressive traders can reverse their bearish trades and start scaling into long trades. RBOB is approaching $3...a level not seen since last April so expect momentum traders to lift this distillate further if we see a trade above that critical level. Heating oil was higher for the fifth straight session but failed to make a higher high. I am the minority but I'm thinking we need the distillates to come off 15-20 cents/gallon before any substantial upside. I have advised clients that trade here to hold off on purchases waiting for a break in prices. No interest in natural gas..the moves are too sporadic.

It sounds like a broken record and by no means fall asleep at the wheel but I remain friendly to stocks until the 9 day MA is penetrated. How high do prices go I have no idea as they have already exceeded my expectations. June gold continues to run into resistance between $1760-1765. I think there is a risk of a $50-75 correction though I've been voicing that for a week to non-believers. Silver also looks ripe for a correction but I reserve the right to change my mind on consecutive settlements above $34/ounce in March which has yet to happen. OJ has closed lower 10 out of the last 12 sessions after reaching record highs nearly 3 weeks ago. The near 15% depreciation in my opinion is just the beginning of a deeper fall that could drag prices in March closer to $1.70.

The 20 day MA's are the pivot point in Treasuries so with 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds closing back below that level I shift slightly bearish. My clients have no exposure we as we view better opportunities elsewhere. Ag was flat today anticipating tomorrow's USDA report. I would open the opportunity to buy a break in this complex but clients have been advised to go into the report flat. Any longs should have tight stops and do not rule out a limit up/limit down open. The report comes out at 830 AM and the market is closed until 1030 AM so the position you are in at as of 730AM is the position you hold into the report. Live cattle were slightly higher while lean hogs were slightly lower. As for trade I would suggest buying a break in pigs and cows.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Metals, stocks and even foreign currencies continue to build on strength as 2012 has virtually been a one way trade...will this continue? Crude oil erased the previous week's losses adding 1.9% today but failed to close above $99 in March. I view that level as the pivot point so I remain bearish still. Be willing to cut loses on any shorts if prices trade through that level in the coming sessions. Natural gas continues to bounce around and I would suggest no long or short trades until we get a clearer picture. A fresh 2012 high with equities gaining 0.50% today. The 9 day MA continues to act as my pivot point and although we're approaching overbought levels I learned a long time ago not to jump in front of a freight train.

Positive news out of Europe with progress being made caused the Euro to jump and other crosses to follow. Clearly wherever the Euro goes other currencies will follow and at the moment that looks like higher ground. It also helped that the US dollar fell to a two month low. Gold and silver reversed early in the AM to go from negative to positive with gold and silver gaining 1.4% as of this post. Prices may try to visit the recent highs but I have not seen enough of a correction to justify further upside. I am still looking for a move under $1700/ounce in the June contract. March silver is back above $34/ounce but like gold I feel we have more of a break before any serious advance. If you notice in this complex gold, silver and copper seem to be consolidating ...the debate is if the market is taking a breath for additional upside or preparing for a reversal?

OJ lost nearly 3% closing below $2 for the first time in three weeks...expect further losses as the 50 day MA may come into play. That level is $1.83 in March. Continue to use the 20 day MA as your pivot point in Treasuries as 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds closed below that level today. Traders can gain bearish exposure in 2013 Euro-dollars with stops above the recent highs. The suggested play would be to build a position on the way down while trailing stops.

Ag prices appear to be stalling unable to hold onto gains across the complex. Most traders are likely waiting for Thursday's USDA report and will make a move based on the numbers. Any longs should be trailing stops and it may be prudent to book profits and be in a cash position headed into the USDA report. April live cattle continue to wander between $1.27 and 1.29 trading higher back up near the top of that range today. I am suggesting buying a break closer to $1.25. Let lean hogs work lower as well as my target in April is a buy closer to 86 cents...trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

After speaking with several prospective commodity clients today I want investors to recognize that by trading etf's or buying stocks in a commodity sector you are not trading commodities. That being said commodity trading is not appropriate for most investors but those financially suitable with some risk tolerance should explore futures, options and managed futures as a pure commodity play. Come on guys you buy your wife diamonds not cubic zirconia right?

Crude oil lost ground today but the strange thing was the distillates were higher on the session with RBOB picking up 1% and heating higher by better than 2%. I remain in the camp that oil should move lower until we see a settlement above $99 in the March contract. It appear we see higher ground in the distillates but I would suggest very small size as inverse movement to Crude makes little sense and I view the correlation to come back in line very soon. Natural gas appreciated 3% but the wild west daily movements are not for me so I am on the sidelines here with clients. Stocks continue in bull mode and though I am not in agreement longs stay put until we see the 9 day MA's broken. Those pivot points in the S&P and Dow are as follows 1323 and 12680.

Gold is nearly $50 off last week's highs and it is safe to say we hit an interim top last week. From here I suspect we see a violent $50-75 correction. Silver pared losses today but too is exhibiting signs of interim highs. I would like to see confirmation like a settlement below $32.85 in March. There is no reason to believe that if bears temporarily jump in the driver's seat that we could see a sub $30 trade this month. I would say we're close to crosses rolling over and turning south but I would wait for evidence before establishing trades. Sell a 5-7% rally in March coffee. Continue to use the 20 day MA as your pivot point when trading Treasuries; 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds.

Aggressive traders can start scaling into bearish trade in 2013 Euro-dollars with stops above their recent highs... a great risk to reward trade in my opinion. Corn and soybeans were flat while wheat was higher by 1%. Continue to trails tops just under the 9 day MA on remaining longs in corn and soybeans. As for March wheat the 9 day MA is too much give back so I would make it even tighter. Live cattle and lean hogs appear to be in the short run moving south. Longs should move to the sidelines looking to re-position as a buyer from lower levels.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

A positive jobs number and things heating up in Iran and Crude is back on the move advancing 1.5% today. We may see a bounce but until we see a trade back over $99 I still am thinking prices have more downward pressure. My target in March is a trade closer to $93-94 in the coming weeks. What is disturbing though is the disparity between the Crude daily chart and the distillates as Crude is on the lower end of the recent trading range while heating oil and RBOB are breaking out to new highs. It is a classic case of the tail wagging the dog. My sense is all products should trade lower in the coming weeks but time will tell. Natural gas is cheap but with the absence of two major events; either extremely cold weather or a significant shut in on production there is no catalyst for prices to move higher...look elsewhere.

Job growth and lower unemployment rate had stocks off to the races with equities at fresh 2012 highs up near 5% ytd. Stocks will likely forge their way to higher territory as I am back in the camp as being long makes sense as long as the 9 day MA holds. That pivot point comes in the S&P at 1318 and in the Dow 12655. Gold and silver in my estimation made an interim top this week and we should see correction in the short run. Gold lost 1.8% with the June contract giving back most of the week's gains today. I would expect a further $50-75 correction in the weeks to come. A 50% Fibonacci retracement from the current leg puts prices back at $1650. Silver was able to hold on to most of the week's gains but still registered a 1.6% loss today. A correction here would likely drag March futures back near $31/ounce.

Nothing new to report in forex as I am still expecting a bounce in the dollar and for the other crosses to back off. In full disclosure I have no recommended plays until we find a top in foreign currencies. OJ continues to slide as prices have lost ground eight of the last nine sessions...expect that to continue. I like the move in cocoa bouncing off the 50 day MA but the inverse relationship it generally exhibits to the dollar has me holding off on new purchases but have this commodity on your radar in case the dollar moves south as opposed to north as I expect. Base on the Market's assumption that sometime in the next year we may see rates increase

Treasuries got hit hard today with 30-yr bonds depreciating 1.5%. Aggressive traders can fade rallies in 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes with stops just above their 20 day MA's. Those levels are 143'11 and 131'06 respectively in the March contracts. Today in the AG music chairs market corn and wheat was flight while soybeans advanced 1.27%. We could see prices grind higher but I prefer to be on the sidelines with customers if and when they get stopped out of their longs that they should be trailing. A leg lower could be bought but I would like to see a correction before initiating new positions. Expect further downside in live cattle as today prices gave up 1.2%. A 50% Fibonacci retracement in April puts prices to 125.70 while 61.8% drags prices to 124.75. Lean hogs are a buy on dips that hold the 20 day MA; in April at 88.35.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

I think the number is fabricated but nonetheless it is market mover so prepare for tomorrow's jobs number. As of this post Crude is lower by 1% about in the middle of today's range trading lower for the seventh consecutive day. I think we see an additional $3-4 retracement before we run into serious support. If that assumption is correct expect heating oil and RBOB to lose 10-15 cents. Hello volatility...with 7% moves on a daily basis up and down I no longer have the stomach for natural gas. Support is seen at $2.35 with resistance at $2.75 for those braver than me good luck. Equities are back above their 9 day MA's but I would suggest the sidelines into tomorrow's jobs number.

Gold moved higher to confirm that the upward leg likely has further life in it. Next resistance is seen between $1805-1810 but I smell a correction so have advised clients to tighten stops and lighten up on longs. Silver penetrated the key$34 level today gaining 1.5%. We could see prices drift as high as $36 but I would pare position size down because we are due for a correction. Copper lead the metals higher and if you notice prices have started to roll over in recent dealings so gold and silver should follow suit very soon in my opinion.

Inside day in the dollar index as prices failed to make a new low. If we hold 79.00 into the weekend aggressive traders could be buyers trying to capitalize on a dead cat bounce. Other crosses appear to be overbought and due for a correction but I would wait for signs of a top as opposed to picking a top as that has cost my followers a few dollars on recent recommendations. OJ traded below $2 but managed to push back above that level by settlement. We continue to see more downside in the weeks to come...trade accordingly.

Grains are starting to show signs of exhaustion as corn and soybeans could not hold onto gains and wheat lost 1.7% today. $6.73 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and we need to get through that level in the next few sessions to see higher ground. On a correction prices would likely fall to $6.30 and on a trade higher the next resistance is at $7.00-7.05 in March. Wait for a trade closer to $1.29 in April live cattle before re-establishing longs. Lean hogs lost ground for the first time in five sessions but in my opinion we still have significantly more upside...scale into longs with a target of 95.00 in April.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

With a more positive outlook domestically and abroad expect commodities that had previously factored in a more dire picture to get back losses from late 2011. Today makes it five days in row with Crude down just over 1% as of this post trading at six week lows. A close below $98.30 in March should signal lower ground. $99 should cap further upside and I could see prices drifting back under $94 in the coming weeks. Both RBOB and heating oil are having trouble keeping their heads above water as well. If Crude turns south as I expect do not rule out a 15 cent correction on the distillates. To clarify if there is confusion when natural gas broke the 9 day MA we advised moving back to the sidelines to exit long exposure. Depending on your order entry would dictate if this was a slight profit or a slight loss. There is no doubt longs over the last few months on the whole have been a losing proposition...the good news is our clients and hopefully followers trade more than one market and can use my advice to offset their natural gas losses in other commodities.

Stocks are having trouble breaking the 20 day AM on the downside as that level has supported for the last three sessions. In fact after the 1% plus surge today domestically prices are back above the 9 day MA. My suggestion is wait for the NFP number this week to get re-positioned long or short. My gut tells me that if by week's end we do not see new high expect a 4-6% correction in the coming weeks. Gold finally reached our target trading above $1750/ounce for the first time since early December. Past performance in not indicative of future results but the last time gold was around these levels we experienced a rather nasty $200 sell off so although bulls remain in the driver's seat have an exit strategy in place. I ultimately see $1850-1900/ounce in the coming months but I expect a correction first...trade accordingly. Silver continues to but its head against the $35 level but we need to see that level penetrated very soon or a correction will likely commence. A trade above $34 would lift prices to the next resistance at $35.50 while a correction south would take silver back near $30.50-31.

I still think the 79.00 level holds in the dollar index and we experience a dead cat bounce from here. The Euro could be sold with tight stops but I would hold off trying to pick tops in other crosses as they continue to inch higher. Traders of late should have been stopped at a small loss trying to scale into shorts based on my trade recommendations. Cocoa and sugar broke their 50 day MA's today and it appears cotton will by week's end. I continue to advise fading rallies in these three soft commodities. OJ lost 5% today and should be headed back under $2/lb in the coming sessions. I am expecting a violent 10% correction...trade accordingly. Treasuries had their first negative day in six sessions. Likely fast money taking some risk off ahead of Friday's NFP. Corn and soybeans have tread water for the last month getting back their December losses in January but the standout of late has been wheat. Gaining 1.25% today and advancing to eleven week highs. I see the next resistance on the March contract between $7.15-7.25. The 20 day MA in lean hogs are acting as a magnet for prices. I suggest buying a dip and have no client positions currently. April live cattle were higher by 1.75% today trading to seven week highs. I remain bullish and believe this leg can carry prices to contract highs in the coming weeks...trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.