Archive | March, 2012

RCM Commodity Update

This week will mark the third consecutive week that Crude oil prices close lower. In that time frame prices are roughly $7 of their highs and fast approaching their 100 day MA. The sentiment remains bearish as I am expecting more downside. $97.50 in May is my first target which would complete a 38.2% Fibonacci […]

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Tradable Correction

There should be enough downside to get a short trade out of the energies, metals and indices. The energy complex got hit today as forecast with Crude breaking its 40 day MA making its way to the 100 day MA. I expect the downward momentum to drag prices in May futures below $100 into next […]

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Impending Correction

Hopefully this does not fall on deaf ears but stocks, metals and energies should see further downside…a correction not the end in my opinion. A near 2% break in Crude today with a close below the trend line mentioned in previous posts. We also challenged the 40 day MA a level that has supported Crude […]

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Premature Victory Celebration

The recent acceleration in various asset classes has been nice in Q1 but my opinion is it may be too early to claim victory or announce a recovery. Crude oil continues to dance just above its 9 and 18 day MAs. Tomorrow’s inventory report will be the next catalyst. My inclination remains a break lower […]

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The Bernanke Effect

Uncle Ben may is talking out of the side of his mouth but apparently the market liked what it heard. What is confusing to me is this is just redirect and their policy may be stimulative in the short run in the big picture the Feds current actions are problematic. An inside day in May […]

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The Option Queen Letter

The “jobs report” rally was a rally that took the market 6.25 points higher but failed to remove the loss of the week. We closed the Friday session of March 2, 2012 at 1368.75 and this week our close was 1366.75, not much difference. The important take away from this is that given the very […]

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