Archive | April, 2012

Good Bye April

Energy: Crude looks poised to get above $105…a level that has not been breached in three weeks. Today prices will finish slightly lower but well off their lows and another 50 cents puts futures over the 40 day MA which should trigger more buying. I would have stops in any remaining shorts just above that […]

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Bad News Equals Positive Movement

Energy: On the week Crude will finish higher by only $1 failing to make its way back to $105 in June. I had been short with some clients for several weeks and based on the action in Crude and outside markets I advised clients to lighten up yesterday. A trade above $105 and I will […]

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When in Doubt Go to Cash

Energy: I do not like the action in Crude so I advised clients to cut their shorts in half. Do not misinterpret me I am not getting long but rather lightening up on short trades. Though I do not agree with the acceleration of commodities that we are seeing I refuse to fight it. Hedgers […]

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An OverZealous Fed

Energy: Crude has been in a $4 trading range going on nearly one month and for range traders I guess it has been ideal conditions but as for me and most traders I would prefer a trending market. It does not matter the direction but more movement is all I’m asking for. I remain bearish […]

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Risk to Reward that Works

Energy: I know it sounds like a broken record but it’s all about the 100 day MA in Crude oil. Currently the 100 day MA in the June contract is $102.85. I remain bearish looking for a trade below $100 this week or next. Both RBOB and heating oil finished lower today and it’s my […]

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Natural Gas Flares-Up

Energy: Crude finished negative but well off its lows managing to close back over the 100 day MA. I anticipate a break of the recent lows around $101.50…$100 and then a trade to $97.50 this week or next. The resiliency in oil is impressive but with a failing stock market and growing inventories a setback […]

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China the 800 lb. Gorilla

A positive GDP number out of China influences commodities today. I think today was an overreaction but a good sign medium and longer term. Crude picked up 1% today and has quickly pulled away from the very critical $100 mark with prices approaching $104/barrel. I maintain that if we stay below $104 on a settlement […]

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Decision Time Again

A number of markets not limited to the indices and Crude but as examples have reached critical technical levels as a decision on the next legs should take place very soon. Avid followers know I am calling for a further reduction in both aforementioned markets. The 100 day MA continues to act as a magnet […]

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Sell-off Accelerating

As stocks go so does the market. I expect the decline in equities to lead to further depreciation elsewhere…consider yourself warned. Crude makes a lower low today and I expect prices to be under $100 for the first time since early February very soon. My target remains $97.50 in May Crude. RBOB and heating oil […]

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Without the FED…Now What?

Without further stimulus if the markets are forced to stand on their own two legs we should see a further retracement. My opinion on most commodities with a few exceptions is we have risk of more downside. Crude oil bounced off the 100 day MA today regaining 2/3 of yesterday’s losses closing 1.7% higher. I […]

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