Archive | December, 2012

Ag as a whole is a buy

Energy: Crude oil gave up 1.36% and appears to be responding as I predicted and correcting. The 50 day MA held today in February at $88 but expect that to be breached next week in my opinion. I am willing to explore bullish trade for clients closer to $86/barrel. $2.75/gallon has acted as resistance in […]

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Bulls dig in their heels

Energy: February Crude oil rejected a $90 trade and closed just under that level. This is right around the same level prices have failed the last 2 months so I would expect some give back soon. Also the 38.2% Fibonacci level should contain any serious upside at $91.25 in my opinion. I will be willing […]

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Picking a top rarely works

Energy: Crude oil jumped 1.80% today to complete a 50% Fibonacci retracement lifting prices to a resistance level that has capped further upside for the last 2 months. It would be a significant development to see futures above $90 and I do not think we have the legs at this juncture. I have advised clients […]

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Bucking the trend

Energy: Crude oil will finish up 1% on the day closing at its 50 day MA. Prices are up almost $3/barrel in the last week and could continue to grind higher. As long as the 20 day MA holds I am bearish. That being said I would not rule out a correction and today I […]

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OJ broke out to the upside

Energy: Only 0.27% gain but a small victory with Crude oil closing positive for the first time in 7 sessions. Those looking to build a position could start nibbling on longs in my opinion. I advised some clients to scale into long futures in April and to sell out of the money calls 1:1. This […]

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Hedging positions off

Energy: Crude oil closed lower for the fifth consecutive sessions as prices are fast approaching their November lows. While clients are not in the market I do expect a grins lower and forced to take a stance I’d rather be short than long. For my clients I am looking for a long entry from lower […]

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Live cattle correlates to the S&P

Energy: Crude oil gave up 0.70% to close under its 8 day MA. The next downside hurdle to overcome is the 18 day MA, currently at $87.40 in January. My stance is more downside to follow. RBOB traded lower by 1.90% to finish at its up sloping trend line mentioned in previous posts. When this […]

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Bullish probes on the radar

Energy: Crude oil closed lower by 0.66% trading under the 8 day MA but ending just above that pivot point. With January under $89 I am mildly bearish looking for lower trade. From here I think prices can trade 2.5-4% lower. RBOB lost 1.35% today closing just under its 50% Fibonacci level. A trend line […]

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Suggest backing ratio spreads

Energy: Crude oil closed higher by nearly 1% finishing just under its 50 day MA. We finished the week near the upper end of the recent trading range so I do not expect much more…maybe a grind to $90.50-$91/barrel in January. I’m only long futures if they are hedged with options for clients. Heating oil […]

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