Archive | February, 2013

2-27-13 JY.jpg

Helicopter Yen

For months the Yen has traded lower as a number of trend followers have been able to print money on bearish trade right along the side of Central banks. The party may be over as prices appear to be establishing a base in the last 4 weeks. Do I think the trade is over…maybe? As […]

Continue Reading 0
2-26-13 HO.jpg

Heating oil prices above that pivot point

In the last 2 weeks heating oil prices have collapsed falling by 20 cents gallon. As you can see on the chart above as of this post futures are challenging their 100 day MA; identified by the light blue line. Prices have been above that pivot point for 5 weeks …the last time April futures […]

Continue Reading 0
2-22-13 CO.jpg

Cocoa to Greenback inverse relationship

What the greenback does ultimately the cocoa market does the opposite. This is not definitive but if you were to overlay the 2 charts it would look like a mirror image. Being the US dollar has appreciated 3.2% in the 3 weeks it is no surprise that cocoa has depreciated 7.8%. Of course there are […]

Continue Reading 0
2-21-13  US.jpg

Fibonacci levels as your targets

As of this post 30-yr bonds are probing the down sloping trend line that has capped rallies since the first week of December. With a settlement above the 9 and 20 day MAs we’ve seen today I expect a trade higher. The inverse relationship to equities also would support a move higher. My suggestion is […]

Continue Reading 0

Metals tug of war with energies

Energy: Crude oil lost nearly 2% today trading under $95 in April for the first time in 30 days. The bears may be taking control of the steering wheel and on a trade under the 50 day MA; identified at $94.20 expect selling to intensify. Heating oil gave up nearly 1% trading under its 18 […]

Continue Reading 0

Fade rallies in April platinum

Energy: April Crude oil held the same lows that acted as support on Friday and managed to close .075% higher. Prices are just under their 8 and 18 day MAs but unless trading the $2 range I do to see a viable bullish or bearish strategy at this juncture. Stand aside until we get more […]

Continue Reading 0
2-15-13 W.jpg

Scale into bullish wheat trade

I’m calling an interim low in wheat and as prices get further above the pivot point drawn on the chart above the friendlier I would become. I have advised clients in the last week or so to scale into bullish trade. I expect to see prices north of the highs we experienced in mid-January approximately […]

Continue Reading 0

Bearish trade in longer dated contracts

The fluctuation in yields has been similar to watching paint dry in the last 3 weeks. As seen on the chart above of 10-yr notes pricing has been sideways. Remember there is an inverse relationship so when prices go higher yields go lower. My stance is we will trade higher from the current base which […]

Continue Reading 0

Doji star on the daily soybeans

Energy: Crude oil failed at $98 but held above its 8 and 18 day MAs. It will take a trade above or below the aforementioned pivot points to determine the direction of the next leg. My bias remains on a lower trade. A probe higher failed in RBOB with a close 5 cents off the […]

Continue Reading 0