Risk is Back on Trade of Crude Oil

Crude oil had been a one-sided trade since the start of April until the last few days, falling $12/barrel high to low. Bolstered by sellers who have called the commodity bull market dead, oil got dragged lower and struggled to find its footing until recently. But wait… fast-forward to this week… not only has crude oil recovered, most commodities have stabilized post-gold/silver shock.

Crude oil buyers found value in the mid $80’s on the June contract. With a trade north of the 8-day MA (orange line) today, I think an interim low is likely in now. Off April 18th futures have appreciated nearly 6% off the lows and are poised to take out the 38.2% Fib just about 40 cents above current trade.

Crude oil chart

Crude oil chart for April 24, 2013

I say: risk on!

I’m saying the risk on trade is back for a number of reasons:

  • Metals found their footing after a feverish sell off
  • Stocks are trading higher after quickly dismissing what seemed to be the start of a correction
  • Energies are back on the move, higher

Equities and commodities appear to be in favor and the Treasury complex is starting to look heavy in my opinion. Let’s see how this dynamic plays out in the coming weeks, but I’m calling a tradable low in crude oil, RBOB and heating oil.

A pure risk on trade, for speculators, is bullish crude exposure via long futures. That’s my favored play. I will also be trading spreads and establishing upside hedges for clients.

Those willing to join the risk on party are advised to gain bullish exposure via long futures in June or July Crude oil contracts and sell out-of-the-money calls 1:1. Use the Fibonacci levels on the chart above as your upside objectives. A 61.8% retracement puts June futures back above $94/barrel. Not a huge trade… but enough room to pick up a few shekels – every $1 move in the standard Crude contract equates to $1,000 gain/loss. Those selling out-of-the-money calls 1:1 against long futures should be willing to accept a loss on the options if Crude trades higher, as we expect. But I’m fine giving up a portion of potential upside gains to have the hedge as a cushion if prices turn lower again.

As always, I’m here to discuss specifics and give guidance. Give me a call…
To discuss in more detail this chart or any other you can reach me at: mbradbard@rcmam.com or 954-929-9997

Risk Disclaimer: The opinions contained herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations and are not tailored to any specific’s investor’s needs or investment goals. You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions (“Forex”) before making any trades. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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