Richard Roscelli Great Pacific Trading Company-Futures Market Outlook-June 14th, 2013

 

GREAT PACIFIC TRADING LAS VEGAS -ECONOMIC CALENDAR &       MARKET OUTLOOK- June 13th-14th, 2013

You can reach me at rroscelli@gptc.com for questions, comments, and information about opening an account with Great Pacific Trading Las Vegas. Follow me on Twitter @richardroscelli

**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

 

Global Economic Calendar June 13th-14th, 2013

*Actual data releases for today

Data release times are in GMT or specified US EST (Eastern Standard Time) Figures posted are estimates unless specified otherwise

Data in italics-high potential to influence markets

MY radio guest spot link http://www.yorbamedia.com/images/stories/audio/TN061113SEG1.mp3

 

 

CLICK HERE to hear audio commentary for Economic Calendar

 

Thursday-1:30 AM-Australia Employment change 1100, Australia Unemployment Rate 5.5%-8:30 AM EST-US Initial Jobless Claims 334,000, US Retail Sales m/m 0.6%, ex auto 0.3%—10:00 AM EST US Business Inventories 0.2%—10:30 AM- EST EIA Inventory Report (Natural Gas) 95 BCF—1:00 PM EST US 30 Year Auction ($13 Billion Bid to Cover 2.47)

Friday-9:00 AM- Eurozone HICP (Final) m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.4%, Eurozone HICP-Core (Final) 1.2%—8:30 AM EST- US PPI (Producers Price Index) 0.0%, PPI ex food & energy 0.1%—9:15 AM EST-US Capacity Utilization 77.9 %, US Industrial Production 0.2%—9:55 AM EST University Of Michigan Sentiment 82.0   Hong Kong Monetary Authority Composite Interest Rate announcement (between June 14th-18th) 0.25%

 

 

MARKET SETTLEMENT PRICES June 13th 2013

MARKET OPEN

HIGH

LOW SETTLE NET CHANGE *Click for delayed update prices
June E MINI S&P 1610.75 1639.50 1597.50 1636.75 +26.75 E Mini
Sept US 10 YR Notes 128^200 129^145 128^180 129^005 +12.0/32 US 10yr note
July CRUDE OIL 95.77 96.92 95.02 96.69 +81 WTI Crude Oil

 

 

*Delayed Price Updates from CME Group www.cmegroup.com

 

 

 

THIS WEEK’S MARKET OUTLOOK CATEGORIES

EQUITIES…. June E Mini S&P futures rebounded from significant early losses which appeared to be driven by significant liquidation of long positions from funds across a wide spectrum of asset classes. Another volatile Tokyo session overnight which seemed to hint that the Nikkei index is signaling renewed signs of recession also may have contributed to a sense of uncertainty about future economic opportunity & ability of central banks to effective influence monetary policy. The June contract touched near last week’s lows at 1597.50. Stocks began to regain ground supported by better than expected news on US retail sales, especially in the auto sector, and a significant drop in weekly jobless claims. The recovery began to gather momentum throughout the trading session as near term shorts were squeezed again near the 1620.00 level. Growing optimism that the US economy might be able to weather a change in US Fed policy and some bargain hunting after long liquidations also helped to push the major indices to close near their best levels of the day.

Tokyo stocks are also staging a recovery rally supported by the strong rebound in US stocks. Midway though Friday’s session, the Nikkei is up nearly 2.75% and the Hang Seng (Hong Kong Index) is up about 1.15%.

Technically, June S&P lows for Thursday’s session set up very near to the bottom daily Keltner Channel (see daily chart). If US equities continue to try & take lessons in volatility from Tokyo equities, then another strong downside attempt could take place. A significant breakdown for this contract will not be done by violent thrashing, but through a process. First, look for failures to break definitively through the 1643.50 & 1653.00 price levels. A close below 1607.25 could set the new downside target at 1593.00. If the market can close at this level, look for a possible downside target of 1577.00 to come into play. Upside resistance does form at the 1643.50 & 1648.00 levels. For a possible short term move, look for failure to hold above 1628.00 leading to a possible move down to the 1618.25 level.

CLICK HERE FOR CHART

 

 

Sept US 10 year notes regained some ground, recovering significant ground from Tuesday’s lows as some hopes begin to grow that the effect of the US Federal Reserve tapering back its QE purchasing program may not be as “doom & gloom” for asset prices as many believed. The rebound in stocks off the back of better than expected data on US retail sales & employment data seemed to calm the exiting frenzy of ongoing long liquidation of fund positions. Today’s $13 Billion auction of US 30 year bonds was somewhat light, with a lower than average Bid to Cover of 2.47. However participation was more wide spread, with both dealers & non dealers buying, unlike Tuesday’s extremely weak 3 Year auction. The buyers at the long end of the yield curve appear likely to remain cautious ahead of any tangible change in central bank asset purchase policy or the volatility that goes along with not knowing.

On the chart, Sept 10 year futures could be setting up an overall lower trading range. Initial support level appear to be setting up at 129^000 & 128^250. Resistance appear to be setting up at the 129^180 level. A break of this could set up a move to 129^220. However upside gains are likely to remain vulnerable to shocks at these levels from positive economic data & central bank policy speculation. A downside price target of 127^285 still remains in place.

CLICK HERE FOR CHART

 

 

July Crude Oil closed near session highs, supported by a rebound in equities as well as some renewed Middle East concerns regarding Syria’s use of chemical weapons and the United States publically announcing it will move to arm Syrian rebels.

July Crude on the chart broke through the top of recent range setup at 96.00. Friday’s session could be choppy with some profit taking from long positions setting up just above the $97.00 level. Some buy stops could be triggered here giving the market some additional upside to the 97.17 level.  Upside breakout momentum could be signaled by a move to 97.73. A sense of uncertainty going into the weekend regarding Middle East development is likely to set up support near the 96.14 level, though a break of this level could set up momentum down to the 95.82 price level.

CLICK HERE FOR CHART

 

Charts courtesy of http://www.openecry.com (Gann Financial LLC)

 

To open an account with me at Great Pacific Trading Company, as well as any questions or thoughts you would like to discuss, e-mail me at rroscelli@gptc.com

About the author-Richard Roscelli has been a member of the futures industry since 1994. His unique background in the Global Futures markets stems from his experience managing trading desks for major financial institutions and commodity trading advisors.

After earning an MBA in Global Business, Richard is now a co branch manager and licensed broker with Great Pacific Company of Las Vegas. He is a regular contributor to financial publications and websites focused on futures trading and alternative investments.

References

www.ft.com/research/Economic-Calendar

www.bloomberg.com

www.morningstar.com

www.cmegroup.com/trading

www.investopedia.com/terms

 

**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

Great Pacific Trading Company Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Great Pacific Trading Company and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Great Pacific Trading Company’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

 

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The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Great Pacific Trading Company believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

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