The Trillions of dollars question…Will the equity rebound have any follow through?

Global Economic Calendar June 25th-26th  2013

 

*Actual data releases for today

Data release times are in GMT or specified US EST (Eastern Standard Time) Figures posted are estimates unless specified otherwise

Data in italics-high potential to influence markets

 

Click here to see video for weekly Economic Calendar (Use Windows Media Player for best viewing.)

*Tuesday-6:45 AM France INSEE Business Confidence Index 93…8:30 AM EST US Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.6%, ex defense 3.5%, ex transport 0.7%…9:00 AM EST FHFA House Price Index m/m 0.7%, S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index y/y 12.05%…10:00 AM EST US Consumer Confidence Index 81.2, US New Home Sales 475,000…1:00 PM US 2 Year Note Auction ($35 Billion) Bid to Cover 3.05

Wed-6:00 AM German GFK Consumer Sentiment Index 6.5…6:45 AM France GDP q/q -0.2%, y/y -0.4%…9:30 AM Bank of England Press Conference-Financial Stability Report…8:30 AM EST US Final GDP 1st Quarter (2.2-2.4%)…10:30 AM EST EIA Inventory Reports (Crude Oil, Products, Refinery Capacity)…1:00 PM EST US 5 Year Note Auction ($35 Billion)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET SETTLEMENT PRICES June 25th 2013

MARKET OPEN HIGH LOW SETTLE NET CHANGE *Click for delayed update prices
Sept E MINI S&P 1566.50 1587.75 1558.25 1581.25 +15.25 E Mini
Sept US 10 YR Notes 126^005 126^175 125^170 125^225 -08/32nds US 10yr note
August Crude Oil 95.02 96.17 94.59 95.32 +14 WTI Crude Oil

 

 

For delayed global equity index prices, click here at ft.com

*Delayed Price Updates from CME Group www.cmegroup.com

 

 

 

THIS WEEK’S MARKET OUTLOOK CATEGORIES

EQUITIES…. Sept E Mini S&P’s posted a strong rebound on Tuesday as negative sentiment abated in the wake of supportive comments from the US Federal Reserve and The Peoples Bank of China. The PBOC stated that it would be willing to step in and offer liquidity to offset the current “cash crunch” in China should financial institutions require. US Federal Reserve comments continue to try and soften the blow of last week’s announcement that tapering of the Fed’s asset purchasing program could be implemented soon.  Better than expected US economic data gave market participants the sense that the recent selloff might be overdone. This seemed to implement some bargain hunting and short covering for equities, which helped to lift the major indices from their lowest levels since April. US Durable Goods orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence all came in much higher than expected. Market Participants seem to be moving through the “grieving process” of the Federal Reserve QE programs. Anger, shock, denial came in the early stages and may be subsiding for the moment. A sense of acceptance does not seem to have been embraced as of yet. Wednesday’s release of the final GDP figures for the 1st quarter and the advent of 2nd quarter earnings next week could also add some additional waves of volatility as the picture of key territories in the developing economic landscape come into brighter focus.

Technically, the Sept E Mini broke through a significant near term resistance level at 1583.75, though the market failed to close above this level. This suggests that further upside gains remain susceptible to rally/rebound selling. Look for breakouts above 1583.75 to find possible resistance at the Fibonacci level at 1590.75. If this level holds, possible rally selling may come back into the market. A close above 1599.50 could be a significant sign that a possible bottom might be in place. Initial support for the Sept contract sets up at the 1571.00 level, with a break of this price setting up a possible return to test 1562.25. Midterm downside target if this range fails to hold remains at 1548.00 for now.

CLICK HERE FOR COMMENTARY ON SEPTEMBER E MINI S&P

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Sept US 10 year notes closed weaker again on the day after staging a relief rally overnight that had the September contract testing near term resistance as Fed officials offered supportive rhetoric that the tapering of asset purchases would not be akin to an abandonment of support for US economic growth. Additional upside was garnered from comments from the People’s Bank of China striking a similar tone that they would be willing to offer funds & liquidity to the countries financial institutions that have been under pressure from a “cash crunch” recently brought to light.

The US interest rate complex rebound lost steam during the US session after a series of better than expected economic releases on durable goods, new home sales and consumer confidence fueled market participants desire to purchase riskier assets such as equities which have been beaten down to the lowest levels since April. The result was the 5th consecutive lower close for US Treasuries. The market found little support from another lackluster US Treasury auction of $35 billion of 2 year notes. Bid to Cover remained light at 3.05

Technically, it would seem that little has changed as the markets appeared to hold within the technical ranges which seemed to form on Monday. September 10 years closed just below a Fibonacci level whose top range point was set from the second break of 128^000. Oversold readings on the daily RSI at 19 are significant, but should be viewed with caution when considering the developing fundamental picture and market momentum. Some covering of short positions is likely though could reach an initial resistance point just above the next Fibonacci level at 126^170. A close above this level could set up a upside target move of 126^240. Downside support for the Sept contract sets up at 125^150, with a close below this level setting up a possible retest of 125^020.

CLICK HERE FOR COMMENTARY ON SEPTEMBER 10 YEAR NOTES

 

 

 

August Crude Oil continued higher for a third session, supported by a rebound in equities, positive US data on growth & housing and a technical bias that seemed to suggest the markets were looking to continue to test the higher end of recent ranges. Additional speculation by market participants that crude oil supplies may suffer another high drawdown as the summer driving season continues to gain momentum in the wake of people seeking relief from the hot weather throughout much of the United States. No new major reports regarding solutions to recent Canadian supply disruptions also helped to offer a premium in the markets.

Technically, August Crude Oil posted another new range high for the third session in a row. Upside momentum does seem to be showing some signs of topping out. With Tuesday’s lower close, a possible holding of resistance at the 95.69 level may take place. Support for the contract looks to be trying to pierce the Fibonacci level at 95.12. If the pattern of a narrowing range continues, may find initial support setting up at 94.72. A break of this level could result in a downside test of 94.08.

CLICK HERE FOR VIDEO COMMENTARY ON AUGUST CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

Charts courtesy of http://www.openecry.com (Gann Financial LLC)

 

To open an account with me at Great Pacific Trading Company, as well as any questions or thoughts you would like to discuss, e-mail me at rroscelli@gptc.com

About the author-Richard Roscelli has been a member of the futures industry since 1994. His unique background in the Global Futures markets stems from his experience managing trading desks for major financial institutions and commodity trading advisors.

After earning an MBA in Global Business, Richard is now a co branch manager and licensed broker with Great Pacific Company of Las Vegas. He is a regular contributor to financial publications and websites focused on futures trading and alternative investments.

References

www.ft.com/research/Economic-Calendar

www.bloomberg.com

www.morningstar.com

www.cmegroup.com/trading

www.investopedia.com/terms

You can reach me at rroscelli@gptc.com for questions, comments, and information about opening an account with Great Pacific Trading Las Vegas. Follow me on Twitter @richardroscelli

**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

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The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Great Pacific Trading Company believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

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