Will V spell Victory or Volatility for equity bulls on Fed

 

GREAT PACIFIC TRADING LAS VEGAS -ECONOMIC CALENDAR &       MARKET OUTLOOK- June 18th-19th, 2013

You can reach me at rroscelli@gptc.com for questions, comments, and information about opening an account with Great Pacific Trading Las Vegas. Follow me on Twitter @richardroscelli

**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

 

Global Economic Calendar June 18th-19th 2013

*Actual data releases for today

Data release times are in GMT or specified US EST (Eastern Standard Time) Figures posted are estimates unless specified otherwise

Data in italics-high potential to influence markets

MY radio guest spot link http://www.yorbamedia.com/images/stories/audio/TN061113SEG1.mp3

 

Click here to hear audio commentary for Economic Calendar

Tuesday-1:30 AM- Australia RBA (Royal Bank of Australia) June 2013 meeting minutes release —4:30 AM Japan Industrial Production (0.9) —8:30 AM UK CPI (Consumer Price Index) m/m 0.2%, y/y 2.7%9:00 AM Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 30.6, German ZEW Current Conditions Index 8.6, German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 38.58:30 AM EST US CPI m/m 0.1%, US CPI (ex food & energy) m/m 0.2%, US Building Permits 974,000, US Housing Starts (914,000)—11:50 PM Japan Customs Cleared Trade -1.158 Trillion YenUS FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Meeting begins

Wed-8:30 AM UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes—10:30 AM EST EIA Inventory Report (Crude Oil, Products, Refinery Capacity)—2:00 PM EST US Federal Open Market Committee rate announcement decision 0.25%2:30 pm EST Press Conference by Fed Chairman Bernanke re FOMC meeting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET SETTLEMENT PRICES June 18th 2013

MARKET OPEN HIGH LOW SETTLE NET CHANGE *Click for delayed update prices
Sept E MINI S&P 1634.75 1648.75 1632.25 1646.75 +11.50 E Mini
Sept US 10 YR Notes 129^070 129^10 128^300 129^075 -02.5/32 US 10yr note
August CRUDE OIL 98.16 98.88 97.65 98.67 +67 WTI Crude Oil

 

 

*Tokyo Nikkei opens up over 230 pts higher. Japan trade deficit numbers lower than forecast. For delayed prices, click here

*Delayed Price Updates from CME Group www.cmegroup.com

 

 

 

THIS WEEK’S MARKET OUTLOOK CATEGORIES

EQUITIES…. Sept E Mini S&P futures continued to ride the hopeful wave of the Federal Reserve dove on Tuesday. The broad indices closed near the highs of the session as more market participants bet the US Federal Reserve and Fed Chairman Bernanke will maintain a more accommodative QE policy, even as far as pulling back on asset purchases to a point that if the economy begins to falter as a result of a pullback, it would be inclined to return to active participation sooner rather than later. Equity markets around the world were supported by mostly better than expected data releases. German ZEW economic sentiment, one of the more closely watched indicators of potential economic growth came in better than expected. US homebuilder data came in somewhat mixed. New housing starts came in softer than expected, though building permits did come in on the high side of the range. This does suggest the potential for ongoing growth in the US homebuilding & real estate sector, an economic component that has been historically tied to growth within the US Economy. Markets are likely to post a quiet overnight session ahead of Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve decision and post meeting press conference. It usually takes a session for market participants to digest the meeting results. So with that & quadruple witching on Friday, look for some potential choppy market activity, especially around the 1643.00 to 1651.00 trading range on the E Mini S&P.

Tokyo stocks opened higher following the strong gains in the US. Japan’s trade deficit numbers came in better than expected, just under Y1 Trillion yen.

Technically, September E Mini contract rebound, while not firmly within overbought territory yet, could be forming what seems to be a head & shoulders pattern starting back on June 7th. While additional upside on the contract is possible, expect possible resistance to develop near the 1653.25 area. A break of this resistance level could lead the way to a move back to test 1658.00 The run up supported by a possible “buy the rumor, sell the fact” from US Fed speculation could result in some profit taking which may draw the market back initially to the 1637.25 level. A growth of downside momentum could increase from a break of 1628.00, with significant support setting up at the 1620.00 level.

 Click here for E Mini Chart

 

 

 

Sept US 10 year notes continue to trade in a narrow range this week as the market participants in the interest rate sectors await further direct cues from the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

Resistance continues to hold near the 129^245-129^250 level, which is also being guided by a mid Keltner channel offering additional resistance as any new long positions seem to be awaiting clarification from the Fed. The market may seek to retest the downside at 128^280, with a break of this level setting up a possible downside target of 128^220 initially. Upside spikes that carry momentum to push through initial resistance could find new upside barriers at the 129^290 and 130^060 levels

 

 Click here for chart on Sept 10 year futures

 

August Crude Oil moved higher again on Tuesday, supported by higher equity prices and expectations that draw downs in supply will continue as refinery runs are expected to remain high. No new developments on the Syrian front ahead of Wednesday’s G8 discussion regarding details about the transition of power should anti government forces regain momentum in the ongoing military struggle there. The Fed’s rate decision on its effect upon the direction of the US dollar and economic outlooks will likely have some influence upon further gains or a pullback on some profit taking.

The August WTI contract continues to struggle within a range between 98.80 & 97.70. Several attempts to break this resistance levels have failed, but it does seem to show some signs of wear. A significant break of this level could find some initial resistance at the 99.30 level. Downside momentum would need likely need a confirmation via an initial break of the 97.47 level, with support setting up for a downside move in this area at 96.62

Click here for charts of Crude Oil

 

Charts courtesy of http://www.openecry.com (Gann Financial LLC)

 

To open an account with me at Great Pacific Trading Company, as well as any questions or thoughts you would like to discuss, e-mail me at rroscelli@gptc.com

About the author-Richard Roscelli has been a member of the futures industry since 1994. His unique background in the Global Futures markets stems from his experience managing trading desks for major financial institutions and commodity trading advisors.

After earning an MBA in Global Business, Richard is now a co branch manager and licensed broker with Great Pacific Company of Las Vegas. He is a regular contributor to financial publications and websites focused on futures trading and alternative investments.

References

www.ft.com/research/Economic-Calendar

www.bloomberg.com

www.morningstar.com

www.cmegroup.com/trading

www.investopedia.com/terms

 

**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

Great Pacific Trading Company Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Great Pacific Trading Company and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Great Pacific Trading Company’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

 

DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

 

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Great Pacific Trading Company believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

, , , , , , ,

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply