Oil Spikes in aftermarket on surprise supply draw down

* DATA HIGHPOINTS FOR THE WEEK: — Japan Tankan Report…US ISM Manufacturing Data… US, Eurozone PMI Data… Reserve Bank Australia, ECB, Bank of England monetary policy meetings, rate announcements… US, Eurozone Employment Data

US MARKET HOLIDAY SCHEDULE -EARLY CLOSES WEDNESDAY JULY 3RD…US MARKETS CLOSED THURSDAY JULY 4TH

Data in italics-high potential to influence markets

*Tuesday-4:30 AM RBA (Reserve Bank Australia) Monetary Policy meeting, RBA Overnight Rate Announcement 2.75%(view video for commentary on meeting)..8:30 AM UK CIPS (Charted Institute of Purchasing & Supply)/Markit Construction PMI 51.0…10:00 AM EST US Factory Orders 2.1%

Wed-1:30 AM Australia Trade Balance A$ 53 million…7:48 AM France Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) 46.5…7:53 AM German Services PMI 51.3, Eurozone Composite PMI 48.9, Eurozone Services PMI 48.6…8:28 AM UK CIPS (Charted Institute of Purchasing & Supply)//Markit Services PMI 55.0…9:00 AM Eurozone Retail Trade m/m 0.0%, y/y -1.5%…8:15 AM EST ADP Employment Survey (140-160,000)…8:30 AM EST US Initial Claims 345,000, US Trade Balance -$40.9 billion…10:00 AM EST ISM Non Manufacturing Index 55.5…10:30 AM EST EIA Supply (Crude Oil, Products, Refinery Capacity)…12:00 PM EST EIA Supply (Natural Gas).  Early Closes for US Futures Markets:  click CME Group, ICE Exchange

 

MARKET SETTLEMENT PRICES July 2nd  2013

MARKET OPEN HIGH LOW SETTLE NET CHANGE *Click for delayed update prices
Sept E MINI S&P 1606.75 1618.50 1600.25 1607.25 +0.50 E Mini
Sept US 10 YR Notes 126^210 126^260 126^135 126^195 +025/32 US 10yr note
August Crude Oil 98.06 99.87 97.78 99.60 +1.81 WTI Crude Oil

 

 

For delayed global equity index prices, click here at ft.com

*Delayed Price Updates from CME Group www.cmegroup.com

 

 

 

THIS WEEK’S MARKET OUTLOOK CATEGORIES

EQUITIES…. Sept E Mini S&P’s closed nearly unchanged on Tuesday as early buying sentiment fueled by a better than expected reading on US Factory orders faded in the afternoon session. Market participants failed to see strong follow through momentum to mount an effective challenge of the contracts recent high at 1620.00. A “wait & see” attitude ahead of US employment data and monetary policy announcements from the ECB & Bank of England, coupled with US markets gearing up for the July 4th Holiday likely contributed to the markets lackluster closing.

Technically, the September E Mini Contract appears torn by its inability to mount a close above the Fibonacci line at the 1612.00 level and its potential to try and fill in the price gap left from its break of the 1629.00 level. Based on this, it is possible that the market may seek to capitulate in a near term range between a support of 1596.00 and resistance at 1621.75. An upside break of resistance could set up a possible retest of the 1626.00 level, while a break of 1596.00 could set up an initial bounce down to 1592.00. A close at this level could signal further downside movement to retest the 1585.25 level as an initial downside target

CLICK HERE for a video commentary of Sept E Mini S&P.

 

 

 

 

Sept US 10 year notes closed slightly higher on Tuesday after overcoming some earlier weakness from a better than expected reading on US Factory Orders. Tuesday’s US data releases were relatively light ahead of the “hat trick of US employment data which begins on Wednesday. The US holiday week means that weekly jobless claims will be released a day early just after the ADP employment report. Expectations are for 140,000-160,000 jobs created. Overall the market appears to like hovering near the psychologically significant 2.5% level without a significant catalyst to fuel a breakout from its near term range.

Technically, the September contract appears to be targeting a range bound scenario with resistance setting up at 126^295 and support at 126^080. There seems to be a slight upside bias in the market which could lead to an upside bounce to the 126^240 level, though this might act as a near term resistance ahead of the full jobs picture.  A break of support could result in the market initially targeting 126^030, with a close hear setting up a possible downside target of 125^240.

CLICK HERE FOR COMMENTARY ON SEPTEMBER 10 YEAR NOTES

 

 

 

August Crude Oil continued its march to break the $100.00 market on Tuesday, and it has actually achieved that goal in the overnight session with a strong break of the $100.00 level which seems to have triggered fresh buying which pushed the August WTI contract above $101.00. The market spike in Tuesday’s after session appeared to be triggered by a larger than expected drawdown of 9 million barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute report released Tuesday afternoon. Upside momentum also continues to be supported by speculation that the ongoing political turmoil in Egypt may create a new level of instability within the oil rich Middle East. Add to this a US holiday break which tends to heighten security concerns in the US and there appears to be little reason for buyers to pullback in the near term.

On the daily chart, the August contract for Crude Oil is registering some signals of being overbought. RSI daily reading is coming in at 73.1, suggesting the move higher may be due for a correction. Support in the near term for the contract appears to be setting up at the 100.47 level, with a break of this price setting up possible downside target at 99.96. Upside resistance for crude appears to be setting up at 102.46. Remember that fundamental news & events could instill heighten levels of volatility into the crude market over the next week, so maintain trading & risk management discipline.

 

CLICK HERE FOR VIDEO COMMENTARY ON AUGUST CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

Charts courtesy of http://www.openecry.com (Gann Financial LLC)

 

To open an account with me at Great Pacific Trading Company, as well as any questions or thoughts you would like to discuss, e-mail me at rroscelli@gptc.com

About the author-Richard Roscelli has been a member of the futures industry since 1994. His unique background in the Global Futures markets stems from his experience managing trading desks for major financial institutions and commodity trading advisors.

After earning an MBA in Global Business, Richard is now a co branch manager and licensed broker with Great Pacific Company of Las Vegas. He is a regular contributor to financial publications and websites focused on futures trading and alternative investments.

References

www.ft.com/research/Economic-Calendar

www.bloomberg.com

www.morningstar.com

www.cmegroup.com/trading

www.investopedia.com/terms

 

GREAT PACIFIC TRADING LAS VEGAS MARKET OUTLOOK-July 1st-2nd

You can reach me at rroscelli@gptc.com for questions, comments, and information about opening an account with Great Pacific Trading Las Vegas. Follow me on Twitter @richardroscelli

**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

Global Economic Calendar June 25th-26th  2013

 

*Actual data releases for today

Data release times are in GMT or specified US EST (Eastern Standard Time) Figures posted are estimates unless specified otherwise

Data in italics-high potential to influence markets

 

Click Here to see video for Economic Calendar Update (Use Windows Media Player for best viewing. This may take a minute to upload.)

**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

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The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Great Pacific Trading Company believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

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