Greenback – The Round Mound of Rebound

Not to date myself but for all those Charles Barkley fans out recognize that “Sir Charles” was a formidable force and the shortest player at 6’6 to lead the league in rebounds. Serving as inspiration I expect the US dollar to stage a rebound from current trade. The same support levels that held in mid-June I expect to hold around 80.70 in September futures. The first confirmation that an interim bottom has been established in the Greenback would be a settlement above the 20 day MA (light blue line). This would likely be followed shortly thereafter by a trade back to the 38.2% Fib level and 50 day MA that both come in just above 82.25. While I am not calling for a bull market I do see a 2-3% appreciation in the coming weeks.

Though I will not take a long trade with clients in the dollar I will use this analyses aiding with entries and exits in other commodities that appear to be influenced by the dollar movement.

Greenback - US Dollar Index Futures chart for August 22, 2013

US Dollar Index Futures chart for August 22, 2013

Markets that I feel could be influenced by a 2-3% appreciation in the Dollar:

  • Gold, silver and energies move lower.
  • Cocoa moves lower.
  • Currencies move lower. I like bearish trade in the Pound, Euro and Swissie.
  • We get a bounce in the Treasury complex.

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Bradbard Research

As always, I’m here to discuss specifics and give guidance. Shoot me an email…Give me a call… you can reach me at: mbradbard@rcmam.com or 954-929-9997

Risk Disclaimer: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities and/ or financial products herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed to be accurate. You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions (“Forex”) before making any trades. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Both RCM Asset Management and the research analyst may have positions in the financial products discussed.

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