The Loonie…A Broken Wing but it Can Still Fly

Today is December 5th and it looks like it may be the first positive session in the Canadian dollar in 10 sessions. Future traded to their lowest levels since May of 2010 yesterday but for now it appears .9350 will be the line in the sand in December futures. One cannot look at the Canadian dollar without looking at the action in metals and energies and that is why I have included a chart of gold and Crude oil…as seen below. I am operating under the influence that Crude oil may have found a meaningful bottom last week and has rallied nearly $6 barrel since. In fact as seen we are challenging the 50 day MA as of this post; green line. January futures are also above the down sloping trend line that has capped upside since labor day. This week gold traded within $10 of the the $1200 level and the same level that held as support in late June may again serve as the line in the sand. If yesterdays action does not prove to be a key reversal I believe we are very close to an inflection point.

I am hard pressed to believe that IF in fact energies and metals track higher that the Loonie will not follow. It is for that logic I think scaling into bullish trade makes sense.

Tomorrow we get job/unemployment #s domestically and from our neighbors in the north so expect job creation or lack there of to be the catalyst to get the Loonie moving higher.

Expectations are as follows:

  • CAD unemployment 6.9%
  • USD anticipated drop in unemployment rate from 7.3% to 7.2%
  • USD expected 180,000 jobs added

Canadian dollar (Loonie) Futures:

Canadian dollar - CAD - Loonie

Canadian dollar – CAD – Loonie

Crude Oil Futures:

Crude oil futures compared against the Loonie

Crude oil Futures chart

Gold Futures:

Gold Futures

Gold Futures

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Bradbard Research

As always, I’m here to discuss specifics and give guidance. Shoot me an email…Give me a call… you can reach me at: mbradbard@rcmam.com or 312-870-1653

Risk Disclaimer: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities and/ or financial products herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed to be accurate. You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions (“Forex”) before making any trades. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Both RCM Asset Management and the research analyst may have positions in the financial products discussed.
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