Natural gas – Will Prices Follow the rest of the Complex Lower?

Its official Crude oil and the products have moved lower putting in an interim top in the last two weeks…will natural gas follow suite? As I said in my piece yesterday Crude broke the up-sloping trend line that has been in place all of 2014 and lower trade looks likely. Futures found mild support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level today. While Crude oil futures are $5 off their highs, heating oil has fallen 10 cents and RBOB same.

Natural gas is lower only the last two sessions so to some extent we are picking tops which can be dangerous. Today the 8 day MA (orange line) was probed. I like the risk to reward dynamic putting on bearish trade at these price levels. Futures traders could be scaling into bearish trades with stops above the recent highs. I also have suggested bearish calendar spreads, short June and long December 1:1 in addition to various option plays. Today some of my clients executed July back ratio spreads trying to capitalize on a 30-50 cent break.

The move lower today was likely triggered by a larger than anticipated increase in supplies for the second week in a row. Producers added 82 billion cubic feet to storage. This inventory bump beat the 5-yr average by 24 bcf and is a testament on how quickly the US has been able to replenish its supply coming off the 11-yr low in inventory. The EIA reported that current stockpiles come in at 981 bcf. While I am not anticipating a bear market I do think we see a further retracement and view this as a trading opportunity.

Natural Gas Futures chart

Natural Gas Futures chart

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As always, I’m here to discuss specifics and give guidance. Shoot me an email…Give me a call… you can reach me at: mbradbard@rcmam.com or 312-870-1653

Risk Disclaimer: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities and/ or financial products herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed to be accurate. You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions (“Forex”) before making any trades. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Both RCM Asset Management and the research analyst may have positions in the financial products discussed.

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One Response to Natural gas – Will Prices Follow the rest of the Complex Lower?

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