Recently in agriculture Category

Seasonal tendencies suggest that wheat tends to peak out & fall throughout the summer season (Wheat is just tasty grass after all). To take advantage of this tendency, we recommend the following trade strategy.

Trade Recommendation

BUY 1 SEPT WHEAT 480 PUT/ SELL 1 SEPT WHEAT 420 PUT/SELL 1 SEPT WHEAT 580 CALL

The trade is currently being executed for even money to a small credit plus commissions (there are three). Maximum profit on the trade is $3000. The trade has unlimited risk above 580 in the Sept Wheat futures contract.

Please contact us with any questions or assistance in placing these trades
Paul Brittain - Whitehall Investment Management of Las Vegas
www.whitehallvegas.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

May soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday gave back all of Wednesday's short-covering gains, and then some. Prices hit a fresh four-week low of $9.33 3/4 as of this writing. Price action this week has put a three-week-old downtrend line in place on the daily bar chart for May soybeans.

Bears have regained downside near-term technical momentum this week. Their next downside price objective is to produce a close below strong technical support at the February low of $9.11, basis May futures. Above that key price level is located chart support at $9.28 3/4 and then at $9.20 a bushel. For the soybean bulls to regain some upside near-term technical momentum they will have to push and close May futures prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $9.64 1/4. Below that key price level is located chart resistance at $9.41, at $9.50 and then at $9.60 a bushel. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Seasonal tendencies suggest that grains rally throughout the spring, however this is a tendency only, uncertainty always exists. To hedge against downward pressure on soybean prices, we offer the following trading strategy - a 1 by 2 soybean put spread using November options.

Trade Recommendation

BUY 1 NOV SOYBEAN 880 PUT/ SELL 2 NOV SOYBEAN 820 PUTS.

The trade is currently being executed for close to even money. Maximum profit on the trade is $3000. The trade begins to lose money below 760 on the November Soybean futures contract.

Please contact us with any questions or assistance in placing these trades

Paul Brittain Email: paul@binvstgrp.com

Whitehall Investment Management of Las Vegas

www.whitehallvegas.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

This phrase is coined for the college basketball tournament but I think it is an accurate description of what to expect as a trader this month. At its highs today oil was less than $3/barrel from making new highs on the year. Being bearish for the last 1-2 weeks has made our clients NO $ but we still feel a trade to $75/76 is imminent. We are not disputing a trade in summer is likely up to $90 but first a correction. We still favor $5 put spreads. Natural gas should finish down 3.5-4.0% lower on the week. That is not too bad! Clients have a small long position in April futures and June call spreads and at the moment are all under water. We expect the next 2 weeks to be better to us in energies; that means crude down and natural gas up. Are you kidding me that we only lost 36,000 jobs and unemployment did not change?

The equity market is being propped up by the powers that be and if the free market determined prices we would be at least 10% lower. Clients are down on their June ES puts but will stay the course being they have over 3 months time. Sugar closed up 2.4%; we suggest being long May and July via options looking for a move back to 26 cents. For the first time in 4 weeks cotton will finish lower; clients are positioned to take advantage of a set back to 75/76 cents in May. Treasuries were hit hard today and we do think more downside is likely in the coming months but we still feel one will get the opportunity to put on shorts from higher levels. If the recovery is underway which I question and there is more talk of the Fed raising rates traders should re-visit the idea of short Euro-dollars. The charts look like in the next few sessions Agriculture will trade lower. Aggressive traders could use that to get short while I would prefer getting long from lower levels.

USDA report out next Wednesday. Our current positions for clients in Ag include long corn, long soybean meal and short soybean oil. We have no positions in lean hogs with clients but it appears a double top could be forming around 74 in the April contract; that level acted as stiff resistance in mid-January as well. Live cattle finished about 1 penny higher on the week; clients remain short expecting a trade back near 89 cents in April. We caution any exposure in gold as we could see a $50 move either way. If lower we would suggest buying the dip. May silver closed at the 100 day moving average today about 15 cents off its highs. We like being long but would prefer to open fresh longs on a set back to $16.50. If we do see a retracement that holds we would think the next leg up would lift prices to near $18.50 mid-summer. Clients were advised to take profits on their Yen shorts today as prices have peeled off 3 cents in the last 2 sessions. We advised those still interested in currencies to get short the Loonie. We are looking for a move in the Loonie back under 95 cents. We are operating under the influence that stiff resistance comes in at .9750/.9800.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

ICE Futures U.S. coffee for May delivery is presently trapped below a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Prices last week hit a fresh five-month low. Bears remain in firm technical command. The next downside price objective for the coffee market bears is pushing and closing May futures below solid technical support at last week's low of $1.2825 a pound. That would then open the door to a quick challenge of strong support at the September 2009 low of $1.2475.

For the coffee market bulls to begin to regain some upside near-term technical momentum, the will have to push and close May futures prices back above solid technical resistance at $1.3500. Above that lies strong chart resistance at the last "reaction high" on the daily chart, at $1.3735. Coffee futures traders will continue to keep one eye on the influential "outside markets" that include the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. The stronger U.S. dollar recently has been a bearish downside weight on the coffee futures market. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Crude was down just over 1% today closing almost $2 off its highs. We continue to suggest selling near $80/barrel expecting a trade near $75 in the coming weeks. We suggest on futures to have stops above $81, in options clients own May $75/70 put spreads. Natural gas was lower by almost 3% and though we are playing with fire we still like lightly buying April futures; buy 1/4 to 1/3 of the ultimate position you want to own and then add to it when the market confirms you are right. As for option traders we suggest purchasing the June $5/5.50 call spreads.

We remain unconvinced a trade higher in Indices can hold and have advised clients to sell into this strength. We suggest scaling into shorts in the S&P at 1111 and 1125. Clients own June 1050 and 1000 ES puts and are slightly under water. We advised clients to buy back the remainder of their 30 cent sugar calls today. They booked a profit on their short 30's and know hold May 25 cent calls and need a rally. The 200 day moving average held today in May at 21.92. Prices are oversold and have remained above the 200 day since April of 2009 when prices were under 15 cents/lb. Cotton was higher today but did mange to close 1.30 cents off its highs. Clients are positioned to take advantage of a break back below 75 cents this month. Bearish engulfing candles formed in the daily corn and wheat charts so a trade lower in the short term is likely.

Those that have yet to get in corn we suggest using this set back to get on board. 5 days running live cattle have closed lower; we may get a brief rally but sell it as a trade to 89.00 cents is what we are predicting in the April contract. I am confused in the metals; prices could go either way. We have clients lightly long both gold and silver but would be quick to exit on a close below $1106 in April gold and below $16.08 in May silver. For new entries we suggest trading light! The currency market is absolutely madness as 1-2% daily swings are common place in a variety of crosses. We continue to think the dollar is topping and as long as the Euro-currency can hold the recent lows we think a moderate bounce is likely; 1.38/1.39. The Pound remains the dog and should be sold on rallies but only for traders with a high tolerance for risk.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

For the last trading day to be on the 26th of the month just doesn't seem right. Needless to say based on the market action today there seemed to be some month end window dressing, It will be interesting how we start the month of March next Monday. Oil remained range bound ending the week near the top of the recent range. We are still advising being a seller near $80 and expect a trade near $75 in the coming weeks. Clients own May $75/70 put spreads; as a side-note they do not need to go intrinsic to make money unless they chose to hold until expiration. As promised we advised clients to start buying April natural gas futures today; filled around $4.80. We are looking for a move of 50-75 cents higher in the next 30/45 days.

We maintain that indices are a sell rallies market and expect to see a trade less than 1000 in the S&P by Memorial Day. Clients are sellers on futures at 1111 and 1125 and are positioned in June puts. May sugar closed on the trend line that has held since last June. We are cautiously optimistic and have clients positioned in May calls looking for a trade back to 26 cents. Cotton was higher again today; gaining almost 3 1/2 cents or 4.3% on the week. We expect prices to make their way back below 75 cents on the May contract in the month of March. 30-yr bonds quietly gained almost 3 handles this week and no ones is paying attention. That leads me to believe there is more upside; clients are not advised to partake in the upside but will be eager to sell from higher ground.

A portion of your commodity portfolio should be in grains more specifically corn if it is not already. May corn closed at a 6 week high today and looking at the weekly chart this could just be the beginning. Take a look and draw your own conclusion. Live cattle were down on the week but higher on the day. We have clients positioned short futures and long puts to take advantage of a lower trade. May silver traded up to major resistance near $16.50 today; next week will tell the story if we can get thru those levels. On a close above $16.50 we should see a trade back above $17/ounce, perhaps as high as $17.50 before any major resistance. April gold is above both the 50 and 100 day moving average but we still need a settlement over $1128 to confirm the downside is done. The dollar traded below the 20 day moving average but until we get a close below expect sideways action; that level is 80.25 on the March contract. The waters are murky in terms of other currencies; clients only have light longs in the Euro via April options expecting 1.39 next week.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

These markets seem to change minute to minute...hour to hour...day to day. The 40 day moving average that we quoted yesterday was re-visited today and held in oil. Being that we did not make a new high we are still operating under the impression that prices need to move lower before we get any substantial upside. We would expect on a breach of $78 in April to see a trade down to $75/75.50. Clients are currently not long or short oil and are looking to buy on a dip. We did not move on natural gas futures today though we expect to be a buyer before the weekend. Instead this week those wanting exposure we are advising June $5/5.50 call spreads.

For the last 4 sessions stocks have been range bound between the 50 day and 100 day moving averages. We expect for prices to turn south and have positioned clients to take advantage of such a move. A close below 1090 in the S&P should signal a trade back to 1050. Sugar gained 3% today closing back above the 100 day moving average. As long as yesterdays low holds in the May contract at 23.49 we like being long. Unfortunately we did not get filled this morning buying back the 30 cent leg. Clients are still taking advantage of the upside but we would like to buy back that leg in the coming sessions.

July cotton was lower by almost 1% today; clients are positioned short expecting a trade back near 75 cents. We do not think Treasuries have moved high enough to sell but a trade closer to 118′00 in June a sale of 30-yr bonds should be on your radar. Agriculture recouped yesterday's losses; the standouts were corn gaining 2%, soy meal 1.9% and wheat 1.6%. We continue to feel being long corn via options and futures heading into the next USDA report on March12th makes sense. Live cattle were lower for the second day in a row closing 1.7% off their 2010 highs from last week. Clients are positioned in options and futures to take advantage of a trade down to 89.00 in April.

A move above the 200 day moving average was rejected today in March silver. Prices could go either way; use $16 as resistance and $15.50 as support to help you navigate these treacherous waters. A close below $1100 today in April gold means we should see at least an attempt at lower ground; support is seen at $1080 followed by $1065. We still cannot rule out a trade back to $1045; a level seen just 2 weeks ago. We are not establishing new longs at this point but are holding August $1150/1250 call spreads and are slightly under water for clients. As to not miss a move higher in the Euro-currency in case we get one which we do think is long over due, we lightly bought April 140 calls today for clients for $762.50/per. On a move to 140 in the next 1/2 weeks these should be worth $1350-1500/per. We are not comfortable with futures being if things unravel in Europe a trade to 1.33 could happen. Worse case these options can go worthless; and again clients have a very small position.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.