The day is not over but I have not had any strange things happen to me that are typical of this date. I'll let you know next week if I made it the whole day. Crude failed to make a new high this week closing roughly $5 from its highs. Prices failed at the same level they did in mid-November which was followed by a choppy $10 trading range since ..will this continue? My stance is that short term we drift lower as long as $100 contains any upside. An additional influence will be if the US dollars strengths continues expect Crude to trade lower. Exit all natural gas longs and wait for a bottom. I've seen enough damage and there are markets that can make you money until we see evidence of a bottom. I likely stayed too long as is with clients and with more warm weather coming I do not see any immediate catalyst for a turn.

Equities probed the 9 day MA in early dealings but with a close back above that pivot point I remain friendly. Gold is meeting resistance at the 40 day MA but with prices only down 0.50% and based on the greenbacks appreciation I would say this is a small victory for bulls. I am thinking we still have more upside with $1680 as a target. Silver ran out of gas at the 40 day MA as well. My interpretation is the market is taking a breath before a higher leg. The dollar traded to the highest level since September 2010. I see significant resistance about 1% higher so I do not expect there to be much left in the tank. Commodity currencies look to be the best sale as prices have just started to roll over. Though the European currencies have gotten hit the hardest I view those crosses as the largest risk as big moves could happen in either direction in my opinion.

Cocoa could not maintain the 50 day MA and will give back gains until the dollar stops appreciating. Move to the sidelines on longs. 10% daily ranges in OJ would have me looking elsewhere as I do not have the stomach as the moves are in both directions. Coffee gave up nearly 4% today as prices may not reach the 100 day MA before they head south. Stay tuned as we may have some bearish trade recommendations next week. Continue to hold for a high entry on bearish Euro-dollar trades. Agriculture resumed their downward move as forecast with corn and soybeans down roughly 2% and wheat suffering only 0.50%. As prices approach last month's lows I want to see the price action and if support holds I may re-establish longs for clients...stay tuned. Buy signals in lean hogs and live cattle with confirmation with both meats closing back above their respective 20 day MA's. I like the chart formation in hogs better and suggest scaling into longs in April thinking in the next 90 days we see prices back near their highs...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Over the years I've tried to stay informed on 50-60 different commodities and paying attention to commodities off the beaten path has provided my clients opportunities when the majors did not provide trading opportunities. For example following markets like lean hogs, cocoa or soybean meal when gold or oil are not giving clear signals. Crude oil closed under the 9 day MA for the first time in three weeks...a preliminary sign that prices may back off...stay tuned for confirmation. On a settlement below $100 I would re-visit the idea of bearish exposure. Natural gas lost 6% today with serious chart damage. My suggestion is refrain from picking a bottom as we thought $3.20 was the low and we are carrying a healthy loss for clients...thankfully it is a small position. If we do not see signs of a bottom we will be cutting losses very soon...stay tuned.

Same tune in stocks as recent posts we expect equity prices to creep higher and see the 9 day MA as the pivot point. As long as that level supports I remain friendly. Gold has gained 7 out of the last 8 sessions and should continue higher in the days and weeks to come. I expect a trade up to near the 50 day MA in February at $1685. $28.50-28.75 should support pullbacks in silver and the 50 day MA is my target here as well coming in at $31.45. The dollar reverse course again as it appears now new highs will be seen before the weekend. On a new high expect more weakness in other crosses. We have seen too much whippy action for me to have any interest in this sector currently.

OJ lost nearly 10% today as the news of a fungus out of Brazil, the second largest producer may have caused an overreaction yesterday. Expect a further failure but with this Wild west action I would run away from any exposure. Coffee gained 4% trading above its 50 day MA in 5 weeks and prices should continue higher. I see resistance above $2.50 in March...trade accordingly. Both 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds are back above their 20 day MA' as the momentum has shifted back to the bulls. I have no client exposure. Soybeans, soy meal and soybean oil were the big losers ahead of tomorrow's USDA. I like the idea of buying grains at lower levels but have suggested no exposure into the report. I prefer to react as opposed to outsmart the USDA. Look for potential trade ideas in corn, wheat and soybeans later this week. If lean hogs break their mid-December lows except momentum to drag prices 2-3% lower...trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

It will not likely make headlines because it is not energy or metal but look at the last few days in some of the soft commodities. OJ and cocoa higher by 17%. This is what commodities is all about...timing. by The 9 day MA has supported Crude the last three days but unless we make a new high this week I would expect that level to give way. I have advised the sidelines and have told clients to buy the breakout or sell a a settlement below $100 in February...trade accordingly. New contract low in natural gas...where is the bottom? I do not see much more downside but I may be talking my clients position as they are long from 25 cents above current levels. With prices nearing 27 month lows how low do we go to entice buying is the question?

Five month highs in securities as we approach the Summer 2011 highs the grind higher should continue. As long as the 9 day MA acts as support expect higher ground. Gold picked up $25/ounce today making the appreciation in the last two week s over $100 with the highest closing price since mid-December. Another $35-45 I feel is in the cards. Silver gained nearly 4% today on the verge of a breakout advancing $3/ounce in the last two weeks. Further upside should be around the bend as I expect $2-3 additional upside...trade accordingly. Day two of a dollar decline but it will take a settlement back under the 20 day MA for a true correction to be underway. It could go either way but to play a correction my best idea is buying the Euro with stops below the recent lows. The best performers today were the commodity currencies so follow the action in commodities and then play the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie accordingly. I have no currency exposure with clients that I direct.

Cocoa jumped 7.5% today to trade up to the 50 day MA for the first time in two months. See previous posts for buy recommendation and target at the 50 day MA. From here we could see more in my opinion, use today's low as stop on new entries. Back to back limit moves in OJ with prices higher by 17% in two days. This could get ugly with prices above $2 for the first time since 2007. Thank goodness for stops as I advised shorts to take losses on yesterday's breakout...further evidence that the market is always right. Grains should meander sideways until Thursday's USDA. I expect fireworks but will likely be on the sidelines and react as opposed to outguess the USDA. The livestock sector found support today with feeder cattle, live cattle and lean hogs all higher on today's session. Take remaining shorts off in live cattle on a trade above 122.00 in February.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Over the years I've learned that when markets are quiet it is easy to fall asleep at the wheel and not abide to your plan but avoid those pitfalls to increase the likelihood for success. Crude bounced off support and closed back above the 9 day MA above $101/barrel. As long as $100 holds prices should work higher. I have advised the sidelines to clients until we get a clearer picture. Natural gas remained in its 15 cent trading range as prices tread water today finishing slightly lower. A settlement above the 9 day MA is needed for any hope of a recovery. Equities finished flat as the 9 day MA continues to act as the pivot point. Being prices are oversold do not rule out a correction back to the 20 day MA...which would be roughly 30 points lower in the S&P and 240 in the Dow.

February gold is having trouble getting above $1635, the same level that acted as resistance in recent weeks. I expect this to be temporary and have a target of $1660 plus in the coming weeks. Silver is likely taking a breath before its next leg higher as well failing to breach $30/ounce in recent sessions. My target in March remains $32. The dollar failed to hold onto early gains closing lower with all other crosses higher on the day. If this serves as an interim top, which is too early to say buying the Euro may be the best play...stay tuned. Commodity currencies still appear to be at lofty levels so on a commodity correction play the Loonie, Kiwi and Aussie from the short side.

Cocoa picked up 7% today as a new leg higher may be under way. We like the risk to reward dynamic buying at these deflated levels especially if the greenback turns south...trade accordingly. Potential crop damage from last week's cold temp in Florida lifts OJ limit higher today carrying prices near two month highs. Shorts should have been stopped out on the new high at a loss. Wait for a clearer sign in the Treasury market as we could go either way. New entries in bearish Euro-dollar plays can wait for a higher entry as if looks like there is a touch more upside. Continued adverse weather in South America and buyers stepping in ahead of Thursday's USDA report contributed to the jump in grains today. Corn gained 1.3%, wheat 2.7% and soybeans just over 3%. Clients have no exposure. Live cattle have lost ground eight of the last nine sessions and still appear to have more downside...trade accordingly. My target in February is 119.00. Remain on the sidelines in lean hogs as prices may test the mid-December lows.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Investors, traders alike wasted no time putting money to work as most stocks and commodities started the new year on a bang. We do not expect this pace to continue but perhaps the public is waking up to the fact that cash and debt will likely underperform select stocks and commodities in the foreseeable future. Crude starts the year with a bang advancing better than 4% today to lift prices to two month highs and on the verge of an upside breakout. If February takes out $104 expect prices to find their way to $110...trade accordingly. Traders who have been selling above $100 should take a loss on a trade above $104 in my opinion. RBOB and heating oil also appear poised to trade higher. We've advised hedgers to institute more upside protection. Natural gas was flat today but remain the dog in the energy complex and one of the weakest links in the entire commodity sector with prices sliding nearly 45% in the last 6 months. Without a settlement above $3 in the coming sessions the momentum will remain bearish. Some clients have used setbacks to buy 2-3 month long contracts but this has been a losing proposition to date.

Equities leap to a six month high today on decent volumes. Forget about trading the indices but those with large security portfolios should use a further appreciation to take money off the table...in my opinion. The metals likely reached an interim bottom last week as gold has bounced nearly $90 and silver jumped$3.50/ounce. We would work back into longs buying dips thinking $1525 and $26.25 respectively would serve as solid support. Our first targets would be $1675 in February gold and $33 in March silver. The dollar closed back under the 20 day MA for the first time since mid-November. We see further downside which should equate to gains in other crosses. My picks would be the Euro and Pound but with circumstances less than rosy in Europe run tight stops. All softs were bid higher with sugar and cotton being the standout gaining 5% and 4% respectively. Not to be outdone OJ with a potential freeze in Florida gained 2.65%. Aggressive traders can buy sugar with an upside target of 27 cents in March.

Treasuries remain range bound though on a breach of the 20 day MA's we would have bearish plays on our radar. In 30-yr bonds that level is 143'8 and in 10-yr notes 130'13. In three short weeks grains have moved from oversold to overbought lifting prices of corn, soybeans and wheat to two month highs. With today's gains both corn and soybeans hit their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels while wheat has a few pennies to go. The easy money has been made on longs so I suggest tightening stops and starting to look for an exit door. Bad weather in SA has been factored in so we will need to see further developments to see much higher ground in my opinion. Live cattle lost ground for the fifth straight session closing below the 9 day MA again today. We see further depreciation and have a target of 119.50 in February...trade accordingly. Traders can be long February lean hogs with a stop below 83.75. A close above the 20 day MA at 85.75 should signal a new high.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Today's pause in selling is just that a pause as we expect more downside to come in both stocks and commodities. Continue to sell rallies in Crude as the 40 day MA should cap any spikes higher. WTI Crude is nearly $10 off its highs just in the last three days as we should make our way under $90 next week...trade accordingly. The selling has yet to abate but at least the pace of decline is slowing as natural gas was only moderately lower today. We're still waiting for signs of a bottom. As we've said being cheap or oversold is not enough reason to buy. Clients that have light long exposure in March contracts are suggested to hold on for now. The S&P appears to close slightly higher but below its 50 day MA. The Dow seems to be supported by its 50 day MA which is a few ticks from today's low. We think there is more risk to the downside and as long as the 9 day MA caps any upside remain in bearish trades if already involved.

Gold does not appear to be down losing traction as prices lost another 1.2% today. On a trade below $1540 we think $1500 would come into play. Silver found interested buyers just above $28/ounce but we view this to be temporary anticipating lower trade. The pressure remains on copper as well as $3 should come into play in the coming weeks. Today's decline in the dollar should be viewed as a pause and momentum should still lift the greenback higher. I feel after a bounce in crosses we will see the downside extended with the commodity currencies having the most potential to falter...in my opinion. Cocoa may retrace after the 15% acceleration so use mild setbacks to be a buyer of March or May futures. If we make a new low be willing to take a loss.

We are anticipating 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds to see new contract highs...trade accordingly. Corn and wheat extended losses with some mild chart damage as we will likely see lower ground. Soybeans held on picking up 1% today. We echo yesterday's comments and would stand aside in Ag for now. If live cattle manage a close over the 9 day MA a feat unattainable for the last two weeks buys would be back on our radar. Aggressive traders can scale into longs in lean hogs and start building a position. As long as February remains above 83.00 cents we would stay bullish on the pigs.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Markets remain sluggish looking for direction...either higher or lower. As of this post Crude is virtually unchanged hovering around the $101/barrel level. We still favor fading any rallies as $102 is continues to act as resistance. On a settlement below the short term MA's around $99.50 in January we would be adding length looking to capitalize on a trade back to the low $90′s. After printing new contract lows natural gas was able to pare losses an end 1% higher on the day. Depending on stop placement longs may have taken a loss today. Our suggestion is see if we can hold on the next few days with a small position. For the last four sessions stocks have not been able to get out of their own way. When there is indecision we prefer the sidelines and that is where clients are. We open the opportunity of selling from higher levels...stay tuned.

Gold fought back to close above the 100 day MA after bouncing off the 50 day MA in early dealings. All bets are off but on a breach of $1700 look out below. After three losing sessions silver gained 1.6% today to approach $33/ounce once again. Until we get above $33.50 or below $31.50 trade the range is my suggestion. The dollar index appears like it should move lower but the first obstacle is to break the 20 day MA...a feat unattainable in the last five sessions on a closing basis. There are no defined signals in other crosses so wait for a clear buy or sell signal...stay tuned. Traders still in their Yen positions are approaching d day as there are only 3 days until expiration. Ideally lower trade yields better premiums the next few days...stay tuned. Cotton is on our radar as a potential buy as we could be at the beginning of a nice move north...we should have some trade ideas in the coming sessions.

Cocoa prices are down over 20% in the last five weeks getting hit for another 1.2% today. We 've advised catching this falling knife with some clients and to date it has been painful. I cannot remember the last time cocoa prices or any commodity for that matter closed lower six weeks in a row since 2008. A bottom is yet to be determined but we will stay the course for now. Continue to use the 20 day MA as your pivot point those trading 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes. Still wait for higher trade in Euro-dollars before gaining bearish exposure in 2013 contracts. Agriculture appears to be building a solid base as corn, soybeans and wheat have consolidated for the last week. My opinion they are looking for outside influence. Live cattle broke the 20 day MA yesterday and have given up just over 4% in the last three sessions. The momentum should drag prices below the lows seen in August and September...trade accordingly. February lean hogs are finding support around the 88.00 level but we expect this to be temporary still looking for lower ground.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Stocks and commodities got hit today and there should be more to follow. Stocks, energies , Ag even metals were not spared as Risk OFF was the theme today. Crude failed to make it to higher ground as prices were rejected and the reversal that we've been expecting may finally be under way. Aggressive clients started to gain bearish exposure in January contracts. As of this post oil is down 3.7% trading back under $100/barrel. If the 9 day MA gives way expect a trade back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $92.40 next week. Further pressure in the distillates should drop RBOB under $2.40 and heating oil under $2.90. Natural gas is showing signs of life when all other commodities are getting hit. A 3% advance today could be a sign of price stabilization. Stay tuned as we may be suggesting longs in the very near future. Stocks continued lower building on the losses late yesterday.

On a breach of the 50 day MA's expect selling to intensify. Those levels are 1200 in the S&P and 11450 in the Dow. Gold will close down nearly 3% dragging prices to two week lows and on the verge of breaking $1700/ounce as we forecast. If we break the 100 day MA with ease in the next few sessions do not rule out a quick trade to $1660 in December. Silver gave up 6.4% closing below the 40 day MA for the first time in two weeks as prices approach our target at $30/ounce. At this juncture we cannot rule out a sub $28 trade...trade accordingly. Again today's theme was a higher dollar and lower crosses with the commodity currencies getting hit the hardest. On further commodity pressure expect this to continue. Aggressive traders could have short exposure with any of the int'l pairs. My only suggestion is have an exit strategy in case of a reversal because the volatility in currencies can be massive.

Continue to trail stops on bearish sugar trades. The short end of the curve remains on our bearish radar as 2013 Euro-dollar contracts are in our opinion the way to play this complex. Agriculture resumed its downward movement with corn down 4.4%, soybeans 1.6% and wheat just under 4%. Aggressive traders can be positioned bearishly though we do advise a smaller allocation as this should be one of the first commodity sector to bottom. Those typically trading multiple positions are advised to trim their size. Live cattle appears to be working its way lower...wait for a trade back near $1.21 in February before gaining long exposure...stay tuned. The bulls are back in control in hogs with prices closing above the 20 day MA in February for the first time in three weeks. We have advanced 3.5% in the last week and we feel we could see an additional 3-5% in the coming weeks...trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

There is nothing super bullish or bearish that jumps out at me it has just been about managing your trades. January Crude got within 50 cents of $100 but failed to clear that hurdle today. As of this post Crude is lower by .65% trading just above $98/barrel. Bulls remain in control but after a near $25 ascent one would think some sort of correction will happen eventually. We would wait for signs of an interim top as trying to pick a top in recent weeks has been fruitless for our clients. Heating oil held up well today with the biggest loser being RBOB trading off nearly 3%. We see the consumer being pinched and RBOB to be the weakest link. Natural gas continued its slide falling almost 4% to new contract lows. We see no end in sight and as we said last week do not rule out $3.25.

Stocks appear to be heading for a losing day to start the week giving up 0.50-1%. The 20 day MA supported today but on a breach of that level expect increased selling. Some clients hold ES puts and are currently under water. A trade closer to 1185 should get these positions in the green. Gold and silver will finish lower today about in the middle of today's trading range . The recent highs appear to be acting as resistance and seem to be capping additionally upside. We've been calling for a $50 break in gold and $2 break in silver...is this week the week the market will deliver? The dollar was higher today for the first time in three sessions with all crosses lower. We expect further downside thinking the Pound and Yen are the best bearish plays from these levels.

Sugar gave up just over 1% breaking a trend lien that has supported for the last six months. Trail stops lower if short as we may see momentum traders add to the bearish sentiment. We would not initiate new positions though as we are oversold on the daily chart. OJ prices appear to be headed south closing down five out of the last six sessions...trade accordingly. Treasuries remain range bound and the inverse relationship to equities should persists. As we've said we like playing the short end of the curve with bearish plays in 2013 Euro-dollars. Soybeans were slightly higher but further upside should be rejected by the 9 day MA. Corn and wheat continue to be sales as we feel risk/reward corn has the most downside potential. We would still be waiting for a lower long entry in live cattle as we think the path of least resistance remains down. Lean hogs are back above their 9 day MA having advanced almost 3% in as many sessions. We like scaling into February hogs longs thinking we've started the next up leg.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

After all the huge moves we experienced yesterday one would expect follow through today which did not happen. Next week as a new month begins it will be critical to pay attention where the money flows. As long as Crude does not make new highs we like scaling into bearish short exposure thinking an interim top was made this week. Once prices roll over a leg lower should drag prices down to between $85-87 barrel in the December contract. Natural gas picked up 4% today and is bumping up against the down sloping trend line that had served as for resistance for the last six months. The next few sessions will be critical to see up we finally have a technical reason to buy...stay tuned.

No follow through in stocks today as prices failed to make a new highs on a narrow trading range. Clients hold bearish plays in ES options and are currently under water. Support is seen at 1250 followed by 1215 and ultimately our target at 1185 in the S&P. Gold will close slightly lower but manage to remain above its 50 day MA; in December at $1737. This week's action was one sided and the bulls are clearly back in the driver seat but do not rule out wild swings, use some sort of strategy to mitigate risk i.e. stop loss orders, options or keeping your size small. Silver remained above the 40 day MA closing slightly higher above $35/ounce now for two days.

We see support just below that level with resistance between $36.50-37/ounce. With the Yen near contract highs we still like scaling into short exposure...this trade has not started to work but on a BOJ intervention which we still anticipate expect a quick 300-500 point move. Sugar gave up 2.6% today closing near the weekly lows. We suggest bearish exposure looking for a trade below 25 cents next week. After a massive run that lifted OJ prices nearly 25% prices have started to come off and should trade lower in the coming weeks. Treasuries traded lower two out of the last three weeks but the picture still is not clear so we would recommend the sidelines in this complex.

Corn closed above the 200 day MA so we would cut losses on all shorts and move to the sidelines. Clients have been whipsawed in soybeans as this market cannot make up its mind on direction. Some clients hold small bullish exposure in January contracts and are under water. From here it will take a trade back near $13.20 to get these trades profitable once again. We think that is feasible in the coming weeks...trade accordingly. Live cattle have retraced 61.8% closing today at one month lows. On lower trade next week we will be offsetting clients remaining shorts and potentially reversing advising bullish exposure in 2012 contracts...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.