Archive | agriculture

coffee futures fundamental

Fresh Fundamental News or More Fund Buying

The low yields of bonds, in fact negative for several sovereign ones in the developed World, made analysts and investors to jump on the stock markets with the argument that equities are relatively “cheap” considering the fixed-income returns. The indicator is not the most reliable one as Central Banks have “artificially” inflated the price of […]

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COFFEE MAKES NEW HIGHS

Coffee Makes New Highs

  In the past eight years monetary-easing from major central banks have provided a long-put for investors that bet on risky assets. The “certainty” that more money would be pumped into the system so far made several liquidation of equity-markets a good buying opportunity – easy to say now. The last threatening event, Brexit vote, […]

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United Kingdom, coffee futures

(NOT SO) United Kingdom Leaving

The surprising referendum that brought victory for pro-exit of the UK from the European Union took risk assets down and in two days erased the gains of the month and the 2 Q16. One day before the voting started to be counted equities rallied as polls indicated a slightly majority for the “remain” choice, kind […]

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NY Time

Seasonally NY is Near a Point to Favor Bears

A strong rally of the US dollar at the end of last week encouraged buying of risky assets driving equities and commodities higher. Words from one FOMC member saying that it would be reasonable to call for rate increases this year partially helped to trigger short-covering of dollar’s bears. Chinese exports above expectations in March […]

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greenback vs commodities

Dollar Falls and Attracts Buying in Commodities

The FOMC signaled a slower pace of normalization saying that interest rates will be hiked two times instead of the previous announced four times adjustment. While it seemed that the marketplace had priced fewer increases the reaction of the USD proved the contrary with the Dollar Index sharply falling to test the levels seen in […]

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Brazilian real coffee

Brazilian Real Distances Selling Interest

China will to eventually run bigger budget deficits giving not to let GDP growth fall much more and to keep its objective to reach higher per capita income – shadowing Moody’s lower credit outlook of the country’s debt. A more benign macro environment encouraged investors to buy risky assets expecting further help from Central Bankers […]

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Coffee beans cup plate saucer - risky assets

Correlation only with the Fall of Risky Assets

Central Banks of the G20 met last week to discuss their efforts to shore up the economies re-enforcing their will to keep stimulus measures although not being more specific about which ones and their timing. In China the PBoC today cut the reserve-ratio rates of the banks helping stock markets to recover in Europe while […]

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Coffee roasted beans - trading funds

Trading on Fund’s Position Changes

US job creation in January was below expected but still above the 150K mark that most economists say to be enough to keep the unemployment rate low. The increase on average hourly gains was read as a signal that the FOMC might eventually consider tightening on its March meeting as inflation shall not ease. At […]

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black coffee - macro shaky

Funds Shoretening and Marcro Shaky

FUNDS SHORTENING AND MACRO SHAKY On Davos last week central banks’ presidents did their job in talking about further “support” for the markets (China) and a potential new wave of liquidity easing (ECB and BoJ). The rhetoric was enough to halt the selling mode that investors were on and provoked a capitulation that drove equities […]

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