With the Fed hinting at more quantitative easing do not expect commodities to get inexpensive any time soon. Crude oil has made a higher high now for the last three sessions and on a close back above $100 traders could start scaling back into longs. I see support at $99 followed by $97 in March contracts. Natural gas did trade lower today but if you notice the 9 day MA is holding as support. Traders can scale into longs with stops just below that level. It comes in at $2.56 in March. Stocks will close slightly lower today, only the second negative close in the last fourteen trading sessions. The low was the 9 day MA which continues to serve as the pivot point. On a breach offset all longs.

Gold is trading $25 above its 100 day MA and on its way to $1750 on the February contract in my opinion...trade accordingly. Silver closed above the 100 day MA for the second day in a row and though prices could get near $35 I think we are due for a $2.50-4.00 correction very soon...trade accordingly. The dollar lost ground today though it pared losses closing 35 point off its lows. My opinion is lower ground still which means higher trade in other crosses. Just keep stops tight as markets are starting to become overbought on daily and hourly charts.

Cocoa quietly advanced another 1% today making its way towards its 100 day MA. The highs are likely in on OJ so buying out of the money puts may be a good play thinking we get some retracement off the record highs seen earlier this week. Euro-dollars continue to stair step higher...hold off on short entries but I got to tell you 0.60% at the end of 2013 seems like a good play so we will be giving sell signals...stay tuned. Wheat picked up nearly 2% while corn remained flat. Continue to scale into longs trailing stops. Again I feel we could see March corn above $7 and wheat closer to $7.50 in coming weeks. Exit remaining live cattle longs I am betting an interim tops was made in recent sessions. Traders should have been stopped out of longs in lean hogs at a profit as prices broke the 20 day MA today.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Crude finished higher for the third day running now gaining 3.45% as of this post. I expect some back and fill but dips that hold $95 in February should be bought. Hedgers should also start working back into their RBOB and heating oil hedges as bounces in Crude likely will lead to higher pricing in the distillates...trade accordingly. Natural gas is a slight winner which has been an aberration. Today being only the second positive showing in the last eight sessions. We're suggesting re-establishing longs in March futures with stops just below yesterday's lows. This goes for fresh entries and the second leg for a scale trade. On a settlement above $3.40 in February I would suggest adding to the trade.

WOW is all I can say on the move in stocks...out of nowhere a 3% surge. Sentiment shifts from bearish to neutral but this could mean sideways action into year's end. For the last four days in gold we've seen higher highs and higher lows. As long as this continues look for the stair step higher in pricing but we would not expect too much movement north until 2012. Silver traded higher today as well nearly recouping yesterday's losses. Like gold we could see a bounce but we expect a range of $28.50-$31/ounce until 2012. The dollar is failing after reaching over bought status losing .70% today. I expect further downside and aggressive traders could buy all other crosses with tight stop. My favored plays are the Pound and Euro to play a bounce.

Coffee picked 1.5% today...expect a further appreciation and be prepared to sell..stay tuned. Continue to buy dips in cocoa which was higher by 5.5% today. The 50 day MA is almost 15% from current levels and that is a reasonable target on the March contract in my opinion. Treasuries were hit hard today as yesterday may serve as an interim high..stay tuned. If that is the case we will have some bearish trade ideas to follow in both 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes. Ag's can be bought with stops below the recent lows. ...that goes for wheat , corn and soybeans. Continue to work into bullish plays in February lean hogs as I think this market is in the process of setting up for a nice bullish move.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Kicking the can...is that another way to refer to death...well in the case of Europe and the US kicking the can down the road is similar to dying a slow death. Crude oil will close back over $100/barrel but well off its highs and considering outside markets I'm content remaining short. I am still expecting a trade under last week's lows and prices to approach $90/barrel into December. Natural gas will close lower by 1.7% but we were able to hold onto the 9 day MA. Continue to scale into long s in February and March looking to ride prices back to $4 in the coming weeks. Add to the position when initial positions are 15-20 cents in the green and start trailing stops.

WOW...stocks are higher with authority on the news out of Europe and positive numbers here domestically. We blew through my 1210 and 11700 resistance numbers like a hot knife through butter. We likely will see follow through but our clients are not buying and prefer to be a seller from higher levels. We were wrong to be neutral to bearish in metals as we have shifted back to the bull camp with the price action today. Gold is back above its 100 day MA and should make its way to $1790 in the near future. Silver is closing in on resistance and on a penetration of $33/ounce we would likely see $35 soon thereafter...trade accordingly. FYI futures traders should be trading February gold and March silver now not December. Day three of the dollar decline with a trade below the 20 day MA for the first time in three weeks. We still are targeting 77.00 in the December contract. All crosses with the exception of the Yen can be bought on dips..we favor the Pound and Loonie.

Do not build a large position but get some skin in the game buying cocoa looking to add once the market proves an interim bottom is in. Support held in coffee as prices were higher by 4% today. We will be re-establishing bearish trades for clients in the coming sessions. March could see $2.50...that is the 100 day MA and likely a cap on any additional upside...trade accordingly. Both 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes are back under their 20 day MA's...use that level as your pivot point as we got sell signals today. Big upswing in Euro-dollars today...those trailing stops should have been stopped out at a profit. From here look to re-establish shorts after a further appreciation...stay tuned.

Ags were higher as we still are anticipating a 4-6% appreciation in this complex. Aggressive traders can get long though I would prefer to be a seller after the appreciation if that is how it plays out. We're getting mixed signals in cattle but forced into the market we would certainly be long not short. Aggressive traders can gain bullish exposure in February though we would sell calls or buy puts against long futures as a hedge. A small bearish position in lean hogs makes sense to me adding once we get a settlement below the 20 day MA; in February at 91.10.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

That is a loaded question because investing in commodities is not safe however if a clearing firm goes out of business and you have a futures account the answer is yes. With the passing of MF Global I was asked this question a number of times today so I wanted to put all prospective commodity clients at ease. Let me be clear trading commodities is not safe but money at an FCM in segregated account...that my friends is safe.

Crude oil continues to exhibit signs of an interim top trading down 0.90% as of this post. On the December contract we see solid resistance at the $94/barrel level and we continue to operate under the influence that we see prices closer to $87 in the very near future...trade accordingly. Natural gas has closed positive the last two sessions lifting prices over the down sloping trend line mentioned in previous blogs. Aggressive traders can start gaining bullish exposure in January contracts. Stocks may have sucked longs in with the over extension last week but a correction appears to be under way. A breach of the 9 day MA's just below today's lows should confirm an interim top. If we see further downside momentum look for the Dow to find its way quickly to 11300 and the S&P to 1185...trade accordingly.

Traders that were long gold or silver were advised to offset their positions today and move to the sidelines. December gold is having trouble getting through $1750 to the upside and on the downside a break of $1700 should lead to a retest of $1650. Silver is back under the 40 day MA losing nearly 4% today. Longer term we are extremely bullish but from here we feel a trade back to $32.50/33.00 is in the cards...trade accordingly. The dollar recouped 2% today with all crosses getting hit largely influenced by outside markets and the BOJ intervention. We got the move we've been forecasting in the Yen with three months of up movement erased in one session but look for a further sell off in the session to come. With the increased volatility our suggestion is purchasing options as opposed to futures.

Continue to fade any rallies in sugar and coffee. Coffee is on the verge of making fresh 2011 contract lows and sugar should see an additional 5-8% downside. With the MF Global turmoil and liquidation in commodities and equities money flowed back into Treasuries with 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes gaining traction closing back over the 20 day MA. Look for further easing in other markets to help lift Treasuries further...trade accordingly. Forced into the market we would rather be short than long in the Ag sector but at the moment have advised clients to move to the sidelines. Exit all remaining live cattle shorts as prices are approaching a value zone in our eyes. We will likely be a buyer of 2012 contracts this week for clients if prices stabilize...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Money is fleeing risk assets, i.e. commodities and stocks and finding its way to Treasuries and the US dollar. Our take is some type of intervention or plan will halt further appreciation in Treasuries and the dollar and prevent a complete price collapse in the stock and commodity markets...stay tuned. Oil is approaching its lows hit in August down by 2.6% as of this post. We have advised clients to buy trades below $80 so they have started to scale into longs in recent session but if we see a new settlement low we may advise them to cut losses on longs...stay tuned. We have opted for no new fresh entries in natural gas for clients and will be using any jump in price as exit opportunities for open longs. Prices appear to be cheap but they keep getting cheaper.

Stocks start the week with a bang 3-6%. December S&P futures will close below 1100 for the first time this year as slow manufacturing and the mess in Europe has BEARS in the driver's seat. We see no ending in sight in the stock market as we expect new lows to follow...trade accordingly. Gold pushed higher by 2% today trading up to the 9 day MA. On a settlement above $1665 in December expect $1700 followed by $1740. The fact that gold was able to gain in the face of a rising dollar bodes well for continued upside. Silver closed well off its highs but still was able to appreciate .85% today. We think this consolidation is the market catching a breath before an upside assault as we are looking for December futures to find their way back above $35/ounce in the coming weeks. Copper traded below $3.00 for the first time in fifteen months. Though it would be catching a falling knife much like oil below $80 we feel aggressive traders could scale into longs in copper below $3.00.

As of this post the dollar index is higher by 1.25% lifting price to fresh 2011 highs. We do not expect a trade above 80.00 to be sustainable but recognize if the dollar move north continues we are losing on most of our commodity longs because the inverse relationship. Until the dollar stops appreciating all the other crosses with the exception of the Yen are in sell mode. Cocoa is one of the most heavily correlated commodities with the dollar so if the dollar continues north cocoa could have trouble appreciating. We are long cocoa with most clients via March options and are currently under water. Outside of the greenback Treasuries also served as a flight to quality today with 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds up appreciably approaching their contract highs. This trade makes little sense to me but the market is always right and looks to be headed for higher ground...trade accordingly.

Mixed bag in grains with corn unchanged, soybeans slightly lower and wheat moderately higher. We've suggested scaling into longs in corn and soybeans to clients as the recent route we feel has over shot to the downside. We suspect corn prices under $6/bushel to be very temporary. As for soybeans after a 20% reduction in prices in the last month expect countries who buy US soybeans to step up their purchases. Live cattle prices continue to surge higher as they've appreciated now for seven straight sessions. We do expect record highs and a correction may not be as deep as previously forecast. New entries may need to pay up but still should wait for a 2.5-4% correction.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

If in a profit or at a loss and not 100% committed to trades we opted to take profits and losses for clients today and raise some cash as we except fireworks as a consequence of the Jackson hole outing. Crude advanced 2% today closing higher for the third consecutive session back above the 9 day MA. Consecutive settlement above that level; at $85.55 should confirm a bottom is in and we proceed north from here. We are suggesting moderately bullish exposure and have a near term target of $92/93 on the October contract. Both RBOB and heating oil are on the verge of breaking above previous resistance as well. As of this post natural gas is higher by 2.5% forming a bullish engulfing candle in today's session. We maintain our buy mentality under $4 thinking we could see $4.25 and eventually $4.50 in the coming weeks.

Stocks are on the move higher as we anticipated with the S&P gaining 3.25% and the Dow 2.75% as of this post. We expect a trade up to last week's highs in fairly quick order. That would be approximately an additional 50 points in the S&P and 350 points in the Dow...trade accordingly. As of this post gold if lower by 3.3% and nearly $90/ounce from its highs overnight. This could be the start of the correction we've been calling for. From here retracement levels to consider in the December gold futures: $1740, 1690, 1645. We have been trading put options for aggressive clients trying to position for this move...in reality we are likely 1/3 - 1/2 way complete on the correction we've been looking for...trade accordingly. Silver gave up 3.4% and if the bears were to take contract even temporarily expect a sharp trade back under $39/ounce. Clients are slightly under water on their Loonie longs and Yen shorts but stay the course for now. Our targets in the September futures are 1.0250 and 1.2800 respectively.

OJ got hit a little today losing 1.5%...clients remain long. They will likely miss the cocoa trade as the move is happening we forecast but we failed to act as we were in cotton and OJ at the time we got a buy signal. Coffee shorts remain on our radar but we've yet to make a move...stay tuned. Both the long end and short end appear to be rolling over as traders could be short Euro-dollars, 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr, 30-yr instruments. You get the point regardless of the duration technicals indicate a trade lower as long as a new high is not made. Agriculture is trading higher without our clients..we may have miscalculated the timing of a pullback but we do not wish to be long at these levels so we will be on the sidelines with clients until the markets come to us. We took a very small loss on lean hog longs for clients today as we did not like the action. After the dust settles next week we will re-explore positions in the livestock sector. Likely bullish positions in hogs and cattle but stay tuned as things may change.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Do not be a hero as this market will take no prisoners....long or short it does not matter...cash is king and keep your size small. Clearly we were wrong on Crude holding the lows from June with prices down nearly 6% today trading to a nine month low. We see the next significant support $3 lower so fasten your seat belts. Most clients with long exposure thankfully have small size and have opted to get short different months or use options to weather extended downside. The near 15% decline in the last two weeks in our opinion is far too much but the market feels different. I like Goldman Sachs believes we could see prices back over $110/barrel in three months but what the next two seeks brings I cannot be so sure. Natural gas traded to a fresh contract low but being we are so over sold we will remain in our clients longs thinking we could see a 7-10% bounce in the coming months. Our suggestion is be in October to give the trade some time.

A near 5% drop today and nearly 15% decline in recent weeks in the stock market has been brutal for stock investors. Another reason why we feel investors need to have a portion of their portfolios in commodities. Our timing was horrid getting in ES bull call spreads with some clients but we will try to manage the trade thinking we could get a relief bounce from here. We advised clients to buy back their top leg (1325 calls and hold the 1275 calls.) Gold will close down nearly $10/ounce but the real story is $35 off its highs. This MAY be day one of the correction we've been looking for...stay tuned. Silver dropped substantially more trading down nearly 8% as of this post below the 20 day Ma for the first time in one month. Next support is seen in September at $37.60 followed by $36.50. Bullish engulfing candle in the dollar lifted prices to two week highs. The greenback MAY continue to be a flight to quality and if so 77.00 is attainable...trade accordingly.

The commodity currencies including the Loonie, Aussie and Kiwi will be the weak performers as long as commodities are correcting. The BOJ intervened overnight as the Yen will be in sell rally mode moving forward. The ECB left rates at 1.50% and the Euro rolled over ...sell rallies here as well. Sugar hit our second target and stalled so we advised clients to book their profits in their March shorts. A 50% Fibonacci retracement is complete. OJ gave up nearly 4% today as prices are making their way lower as predicted...see previous posts. Treasuries have moved up again as the flight to quality play is alive and well. The higher they get the better shorting opportunity but not yet! Let agriculture continue to move lower as next week we should be able to be a buyer across the board at lower levels. Our interest lies mostly in corn and soybeans. We like gaining bearish exposure in lean hogs thinking that resistance will cap rallies and we will see prices down 5% in the coming weeks.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

I'm not smart enough to know what is better for the economy inflation or deflation but I do know that things cost more than they used to and I thought that was inflation. Maybe I need to go back to school...isn't it that easy Ben? Crude oil picked up ground for the third consecutive session today carrying prices back near the 9 day MA at its highs. As we said yesterday we would need to see the distillates turn before Crude could reverse...low and behold RBOB was higher by 3% and heating oil advanced nearly 2%. Look for further evidence in the coming sessions and then we should be in bull mode again. Natural gas made a new high and failed but being the recent sell off has dragged prices to oversold levels we like gaining long exposure. For now our suggested play is purchasing September bull call spreads.

Inside day in the indices and the rally up to Fed may have seen enough. If we fail to trade above 1295 this week prices will likely head back to 1265. If long trail stops to protect profits. The Pound broke down today being the biggest loser down over 1% as of this post. Chart damage was done and we have shifted our bias form bullish to bearish here. The Loonie is still a buy in our eyes and should gather steam if metals and energies advance. Move to the sidelines in live cattle and lean hogs and let prices back off so we can re-establish longs from lower levels. Both gold and silver held onto small gains but are currently trading well off their session highs. We maintain our bullishness and think both metals should be accumulated at these levels.

Cocoa has touched the 200 day MA twice in the last three week but in both instances gains were capped. On a trade above 3055 in September look for upside momentum. Sugar is a sell...a near 25% appreciation in the last five weeks is not justified in our opinion. A bloodbath is the only way to explain the action in agriculture today. Clients will be advised to buy this dip and be long into June 30th USDA report but unfortunately some are already long wheat and soybean oil and today was not kind to them. Remain long but recognize the damage may not be done. We feel wheat should trade back near $8/bushel by late June early July that is why we've held on. As we voiced yesterday Treasuries look heavy but they have for weeks. A trade below the 20 day MA should signal an interim top; that level is 125'7 in 30-yr bonds and 123'07 in 10-yr notes.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

President Obama doing what he does best, campaigning! We remember when he first rose to the office of President; he could not lead the nation and only knew how to campaign. Well, he is back in his comfort zone. A campaign slogan "are you better off today than you were a year ago" might well be used at this juncture however, the sad answer is no. You would likely come to the conclusion that whichever party had won, we would likely still be in this uncomfortable situation. We will never see a fair economy until our elected clowns representing us in D.C. are forced to live by their own rules. We will not see health care problems addressed until Senators and Representative have to deal with ever increasing insurance premiums and co-pays that we have to deal with. There will be no change to the social security/Medicare/Medicaid problems until our elected Senators and Representative have to live by our standards and don't enjoy the benefits of government pensions and health care. Now is the time to revolt. Don't just sit there and take it, vote them out of office and replace them with responsible people who will live by the laws that the congress creates for the people of the United States. We the People are darn angry and the result is that we have to fight for our rights, yes here in America.

Meanwhile the stock market's retreats have been shallow which tells us that the market is not ready to go down. Yes, we believe that there will be a deeper retreat but we have to wait until the market decides that time is correct for that retreat. Most investors don't understand that the market will tell them, they cannot tell the market because, the market doesn't care. As a technical analyst we have learned to read the market clues and can, on occasion, project a possible outcome and if we are found to be wrong, we will change our minds in an instant.

Monday: Passover begins at sundown, your income taxes are due by midnight and Dallas Federal Reserve President Fisher and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Lockhart speak.
Tuesday: March housing starts are released at 8:30
Wednesday: March existing home sales are released at 10:00.
Thursday: March leading indicators are released at 10:00 and April Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey is release at 10:00.

The US Dollar Index rallied, well sort of rallied in the Friday session. We see a very clear descending triangle on the chart. The good news is that triangles generally are not very reliable patterns. The stochastic indicator has just seen the short line cross above the longer line albeit at grossly oversold levels. Our own indicator has given us a buy-signal as has the RSI. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is sort of pointing lower just below the neutral zone. The 5-day moving average is at 75.090. The top of the Bollinger band is at 76.782 and the lower edge is seen at 74.78. We are below the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. The down trend channel lines are 76.238 and 74.377. The chart looks awful. The only redeeming feature of this chart is that we seem to be losing some of the downside thrust. If you review percentage change charts, you clearly will see that this index seems to be slowing down on these retreats. We have a double bottom on the point and figure chart at 74.90. The market profile chart points to similar numbers (74.825) seen in the point and figure chart, just slightly lower. Below those numbers, there seems to be very little in the way of price support for this index. Be very careful!

The S&P 500 June futures contract rallied in the Friday session gaining 8.50 on the day. The stochastic indicator, our own indicator and the RSI are all pointing to higher levels. The 5-period moving average is at 1313.10. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1339.49 and the lower edge is seen at 1288.77. We are inside the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily time-frame but remain very comfortably above the clouds for the weekly and the monthly time-frames. Here is the problem this chart illustrates, if we do not close above 1336.50 and then 1343.00 we will likely retreat to 1298.25 and then1289.25, 1279, 1274.75, 1261, and then 1241.25. Below the 1241.25 level, the bears will be inspired and we likely will retreat to much lower levels. The indicators for the daily time frame are positive but the indicators for the weekly time frame have just turned negative. The risk trade is back so, if you are part of it, please be careful.

The NASDAQ 100 futures contract looks okay. This contract rallied in the Friday session and was able to print a higher high for the day. This market seems to be consolidating as seen you the chart and the contraction of the Bollinger bands. The stochastic indicator, the RSI and our won indicator all continue to issue a buy-signal. We are below the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily time-frame but remain above the clouds for the weekly and the monthly time-frames. The 5-day moving average is at 2304.00. The top of the Bollinger band is at 2359.41 and the lower edge is seen at 2259.20. We need to see this index stay above 2285. Again we see a descending triangle on the chart. This chart is consolidating, again we urge caution.

The best looking chart of the three that we review here is definitely the chart of the Russell 2000 futures contract. All the indicators that we follow herein are issuing a buy-signal. The rally seen in both the Thursday and Friday sessions was very impressive. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. The 5-day moving average is at 826.30. The top of the Bollinger band is at 858.35 and the lower edge is seen at 801.53. It clearly looks as though this index is the winner. Remember above 858.10 there is nothing but air as resistance.

Crude oil rallied in the Friday session adding to the gains seen in both the Wednesday and Thursday sessions. All the indicators that we follow are issuing a continued buy-signal. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. The 5-day moving average is 108.21. The top of the Bollinger band is at 112.09 and the lower edge is seen at 101.96. The uptrend line is at 107.12. On the daily chart, the Bollinger bands are beginning to narrow indicating that the market could consolidate here for a while.

Gold continues to glitter as it made a new high in the Friday session. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time-frames. This chart clearly shows a very organized up trending market that rallies, rests and then rallies anew. The 5-day moving average is at 1467.28. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1485.23 and the lower edge is seen at 1404.93. We continue to like both crude oil and gold. Naturally, we like to buy the dips and will not chase this market.

The inverse relationship in the dollar and commodities was very evident this week so keep it on your radar. On the week Crude appreciated just over 4% taking prices in the front month near $113/barrel. Very impressive move for the bulls but perhaps more stunning was the ascent of the distillates with RBOB up 3.5% and heating oil higher by nearly 6%. My question is at what price we will see demand destruction? We would not rule out a 3-5% correction so do not get too long in the tooth. Natural gas has finished lower for six sessions in a row but the 11% plus correction should be used as a buying opportunity. We're suggesting purchasing July 50 cent call spreads and on signs of an interim bottom we will be buying June futures for clients.

The indices should finish flat on the week but stiff resistance appears to be forming so longs should book profits and aggressive traders could institute shorts and add on a confirmation of a trade lower. Our favored play is June put options in the ES. The US dollar posted a fresh 2011 low today as all majors were higher ...the Euro and Swissie were the standouts. Clients hold shorts in the Euro and Aussie and are currently under water. We would remain in both for now and look to add if prices start to rollover. A new recommendation...aggressive traders could scale into longs in the Yen with tight stops.

We are neutral in lean hogs having lifted client's shorts yesterday at a profit...stay tuned. As for live cattle we will be looking for a buy level in June next week ideally closer to $1.15. Relentless moves in gold and silver today as I had to look twice today thinking my eyes were deceiving me. Silver picked up over 5% this week and gold appreciated just over 3%. We missed it and do not like either at these levels. Aggressive traders could buy cocoa and sell cotton at their current levels. We have a target of July cocoa at 3300 and $1.75 in July cotton. We're suggesting buying December corn on a correction, are ok buying November soybeans at current levels and have finally tuned the corner on the CBOT/KCBOT wheat spread. As for the debt complex this week it was not good for the bulls though we still like buying weakness in 10-yr notes as we feel a bounce is coming...trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.