I think the number is fabricated but nonetheless it is market mover so prepare for tomorrow's jobs number. As of this post Crude is lower by 1% about in the middle of today's range trading lower for the seventh consecutive day. I think we see an additional $3-4 retracement before we run into serious support. If that assumption is correct expect heating oil and RBOB to lose 10-15 cents. Hello volatility...with 7% moves on a daily basis up and down I no longer have the stomach for natural gas. Support is seen at $2.35 with resistance at $2.75 for those braver than me good luck. Equities are back above their 9 day MA's but I would suggest the sidelines into tomorrow's jobs number.

Gold moved higher to confirm that the upward leg likely has further life in it. Next resistance is seen between $1805-1810 but I smell a correction so have advised clients to tighten stops and lighten up on longs. Silver penetrated the key$34 level today gaining 1.5%. We could see prices drift as high as $36 but I would pare position size down because we are due for a correction. Copper lead the metals higher and if you notice prices have started to roll over in recent dealings so gold and silver should follow suit very soon in my opinion.

Inside day in the dollar index as prices failed to make a new low. If we hold 79.00 into the weekend aggressive traders could be buyers trying to capitalize on a dead cat bounce. Other crosses appear to be overbought and due for a correction but I would wait for signs of a top as opposed to picking a top as that has cost my followers a few dollars on recent recommendations. OJ traded below $2 but managed to push back above that level by settlement. We continue to see more downside in the weeks to come...trade accordingly.

Grains are starting to show signs of exhaustion as corn and soybeans could not hold onto gains and wheat lost 1.7% today. $6.73 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and we need to get through that level in the next few sessions to see higher ground. On a correction prices would likely fall to $6.30 and on a trade higher the next resistance is at $7.00-7.05 in March. Wait for a trade closer to $1.29 in April live cattle before re-establishing longs. Lean hogs lost ground for the first time in five sessions but in my opinion we still have significantly more upside...scale into longs with a target of 95.00 in April.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

With one month under our belt how is your 2012 looking? RBOB, OJ, stocks, feeder cattle and all the metals were the upside movers in the month of January while natural gas was the only negative standout. Will these moves set the tone for trading in 2012? The move lower has been minor but Crude has closed lower for the last four sessions. Today a $3 rally was rejected as prices will close just above $98 the lowest close in one week. I continue to get mixed signals and would suggest waiting for further evidence before making a move. A number of followers preach about activity in Iran and the Middle East...well guess what folks it's called futures for a reason all of that is factored into the current price. Do not be so sure oil will appreciate in the immediate future. The distillates are holding onto slight gains as of this post and as long as prices remain above their 9 day MA's a slight edge is given to the bulls. Those levels in the March contract are 2.8430 in RBOB and 3.0275 in heating oil. Natural gas was slaughtered today losing almost 8% closing back under the 9 day MA. Now that this level has given way do not rule out a test of the recent lows...trade accordingly.

Equities are unchanged as of this post. I see the 9 day MA as resistance and the 20 day MA as support. Those pivot points are as follows: in the S&P 1295 and 1312 and in the Dow 12495 and 12630. Gold will not have its highest close but it did have its highest trade in seven weeks getting within $2.50 of our $1750 target. A positive development but do not rule out a setback. Solid support is not seen for about $45 below the current market level so risk management on longs is critical. Silver will close marginally lower for the second day in a row but still held the $33 level. As I said yesterday unless we see a settlement above $34 very soon I would expect a correction back under $31/ounce. On the most recent leg higher a 50% Fibonacci retracement would put prices back at $30/ounce. Trade below 79.00 continues to be rejected in the dollar index. Expect a give back in the Euro and commodity currencies on further dollar appreciation. The Loonie appears to be the weakest link but much of its movement will be governed by the movement in metals and energies so look for those sectors for guidance.

Sugar and cotton remain sales on any advances. My targets in sugar and cotton are 5-7% lower in the next few weeks...trade accordingly. 10-yr notes continue their advance to fresh contract highs while 30-yr bonds should be making new contract highs in the next few session as bulls remain in the driver's seat. From my perspective 2013 Euro-dollars look poised to trade above their late Summer highs so I would hold off on fresh bearish entries. Lower trade in Ag was short lived as we see all green on the screen today with corn and soybeans slightly better than 1% and wheat higher by over 3% lifting prices back near their January highs. Continue to trail stops on any remaining longs. We advised exiting longs on a breach of the 20 day MA in both lean hogs and live cattle which happened in the last few session. Now it appears we may be trading higher so on pullbacks look to re-establish longs placing stops back under the 20 day MA again. The chart looks favorable in hogs so I would allocate there if I had to chose one.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

It is still very early in the year but let me point out a few standouts ytd. Natural gas is lower by 22%, silver is higher by 15%, cotton higher by 7%, OJ is at record high up 24%, wheat is lower by 8.5% just to name a few. Crude is trading just below $98.50 in March near the weekly lows. See previous posts a close below this level would turn me bearish...trade accordingly. The next significant support comes in below that level at $94/barrel. It is too early to say for sure but it looks like the distillates reached an interim top this week as well. Both heating oil and RBOB could back off 10-15 cents/gallon very easily in my opinion. The sentiment clearly remains bearish but as more investors continue to bash natural gas that is when it will likely bottom. Just like any market when the boat leans one way too much it generally tips. That being said we've refrained from buying but when natural gas bottoms expect some serious short covering...stay tuned.

Stocks have only closed lower two days so far in 2012 so yes I remain bullish but the pace of buying is starting to fade. I remain bullish as long as the 9 day MA supports. That level is 1295 in the S&P and 12460 in the Dow. Gold nearly picked up 1% closing above the 40 day MA for the third session in a row. The 50 day MA needs to be overtaken next week or we would move to the sidelines, that level is $1674. Silver was the standout today gaining over 5% lifting prices to five week highs. Cutting through the 50 day MA like a hot knife through butter. Next I see the March contract eying the 100 day MA at $33.15.

The dollar has finished lower only four of the last twelve weeks but this week was the biggest losing week since mid-October. It appears at least in the short run prices should head further south. The standout today befitting from dollar weakness was the Pound and in my opinion there should be more upside to follow. The commodity currencies reversed and made new highs so back off being a seller...further commodity appreciation could mean a higher Loonie, Kiwi and Aussie. Fresh entries long the cocoa should have been stopped at a loss as prices are back under the 50 day MA.

Add to longs in sugar on a close above the 100 day MA, that level is 25.15 in March. 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes will close out the week at the bottom of the recent trading range. As previously stated forced into the market I am a seller but do not wish to be in the trade with clients as a trade lower in equities which should be soon will likely get Treasuries appreciating again. Still on the sidelines in grains thinking we can get clients positioned long on a test of the December lows. As long as the 20 day MA supports April lean hogs and live cattle remain in bullish trades. On a breach move to the sidelines.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Every investor has a different strategy but slow and steady sometime wins the race. The idea is to be consistent and take small losses and let profits run...easier said than done. For three weeks now Crude has been stuck in a $5 trading range and this looks to continue. Today prices reversed mid-day to close slightly higher back above the 9 day MA above $101/ barrel in March. The sidelines is my suggestion until we get a clearer picture. A close below $98.50 or above $102.50 would likely set the tone in that direction but until then sit on your hands. We're getting mixed signals from the distillates which is supporting sideways action in Crude with RBOB inching higher gaining over 2% today while heating oil closed lower for the fifth straight session. No new lows today but still waiting for a bottom in natural gas and believe it or not I am hearing whispers of $1.00 handle...stay tuned.

Equities bounced off the 9 day MA today and closed higher by approximately 1% depending on the exchange. Ytd stocks are off to a healthy start appreciating just over 2%. Expect the grind higher to continue, using the 9 day MA as your pivot point on a closing basis. Gold and silver closed above their respective 40 day MA's. My next target remains the 50 day MA which in February gold comes in at $1678 and in March silver at $31.16. On the daily chart prices are overbought so if we start to turn south have an exit strategy to book profits on longs because as we all know metals can change course quickly. Copper is nearing a three month high and if prices surge above $3.80 the next stop would likely be $4/lb., a level not seen in nearly five months...stay tuned.

Day three of a dollar setback and the first settlement below the 20 day MA in two weeks. An interim top may be in so stay tuned ... a close below 80.45 in March I would turn bearish. The standouts today were the European currencies...expect that to continue on further dollar weakness. The Euro, Pound and Swissie can be bought with tight stops. Cocoa needs to re-take the 50 day MA in the next few sessions or I would take remaining longs off. That level is 2295 in the March contract. Treasuries were lower today but until we see consecutive closes under the 20 day MA in both 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes considering it just a trading range and I have no long or short interest. Those levels are 143'22 in 30-yr bonds and 130'25 in 10-yr notes.

Fresh lows in corn and wheat as we may make an attempt at the December lows while soybeans were able to tread water today. On a lower trade that holds the December support I will look to be a buyer of Ag for clients...stay tuned. Not my favorite trade but if long live cattle place stop just below the 20 day MA and let the market guide you. Lena hogs have picked up ground the last four sessions. As I've voiced I think this is the beginning of the next leg higher. Lean hogs are not making headlines but we could see a nice appreciation in the weeks to come...this fits the bill for a good swing trade.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

With 2011 winding down this will be my last commodity wrap up as I am closing my office until 2012. Happy holidays to all! Crude picked up 1.7% today closing back above its 18 day MA. Traders should be buying dips that hold $95 as it looks like this leg could lift prices back near $103. At this point we feel there is more upside risk though we do not expect a major acceleration into yearend..our bias is positive but keep size small as light volume into yearend could increase the volatility. Natural gas has advanced now for two days and a leap above the 9 day MA at $3.23 in February would be the first sign of an interim bottom. This contract has not managed to close above that MA since prices broke down from $3.60 three weeks ago. Equities were virtually unchanged closing in the middle of a fairly wide trading range. As long as the 9 day MA supports we could see a chop higher to finish the year. Those levels are 1220 in the S&P and 11900 in the Dow...trade accordingly.

$1570-1670 should contain February gold as we have advised clients to look for long entries at lower levels in early 2012. Silver remains a coin toss in our opinion as well but previous range estimates are the same $28.50-31 is my opinion. We've given clients the same advice...look to be a buyer at lower levels come 2012. The dollar index remains over bought though it found mild support today. We favor a grind lower with a target of 78.50 in the March contract. We see limited upside on other crosses so tighten stops if long and work the market. Over night the Pound and Euro spiked but the fact that they could not hold onto their gains is not supportive. Cocoa appreciated 2.7% today lifting prices back near their weekly highs. On a breakout above 2300 in March expect 2400 shortly thereafter.

10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds failed again today trading down to their respective 20 day MA's. On a trade through that pivot point we'd be confident an interim top was in and add to any open shorts. Assuming that plays out 139'00 would be our target in 30-yr bonds and 128'00 in 10-yr notes...trade accordingly. Traders with a longer perspective should remain in bearish trade in 2013 Euro-dollars with stops above the recent highs. Risk to reward this one is a gem! For the last four days corn and wheat have closed higher and soybeans have gained four out of the last five sessions. This appears to be a tradable bottom so get light bullish exposure and play the bounce. Pick your poison but from here in my opinion you could get 50 cents of upside on the aforementioned grains. My opinion...lean hogs are building a base so continue to accumulate bullish exposure in February and add on a settlement above 86.00 cents.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

A number of commodities have gotten drilled of late and in my humble opinion there is more to come. Crude is lower by $5 closing back under to 40 day MA ...our first target mentioned in recent posts. From here we should see $93 and possibly a trade under $90/barrel...trade accordingly. Continue to use rallies as short entries. A new contract low in natural gas with prices getting hit for 4% today. Tomorrow's AGA report is either going to put a bottom in natural gas or get prices back under $3...tomorrows action will be critical in my opinion. The near 15% slide in recent weeks has been painful for clients holding longs but fortunately most have been advised to have short exposure elsewhere to soften the blow.

Day three of a stock decline with markets getting hit again..all indices are lower by more than 1% and look destined for lower ground. As we've said of late 1185 in the S&P and 11400 in the Dow would be our short term targets. At its lows the break in gold approached $100 today and as of this post prices are down by $86/ounce. Further chart damage was done as it appears a trade under $1500 is doable by year's end. Silver was even uglier giving up nearly 8% as of this post under $29/ounce as predicted. From here we should see lower ground in both metals so stand aside or have bearish exposure. Copper lost 5% as well and if this continues a trade under $3 could be in the cards. Appreciation continued in the greenback with all crosses lower today. Plenty of weakness in the commodity currencies which makes sense considering outside markets. I expect weakness to persist...trade accordingly.

Cotton and coffee should continue lower as we see little support before $2 in coffee and 80 cents in cotton. 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes will likely challenge their contract highs if weakness in commodities and stocks persist. Corn and soybeans held onto their recent lows but wheat posted a fresh low. Considering outside markets we would back off as a buyer and expect prices to drift lower. Stand aside. Start scaling back into long exposure in lean hogs. My suggestion is to bite off 25-33% off the total position you want at these levels and then add to the trade at a later date...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

As of this post Crude oil is slightly lower trading just above $100/barrel. Continue to fade any rallies as a breach of the 9 day and 18 day MA's at $98.25/98.15 should signal lower ground. Natural gas picked up 2.7% closing over the 18 day MA for the first time in one month. Scale into longs as a trade over $3.70 should lead to $3.90...trade accordingly. Stocks were virtually unchanged with the Dow and S&P slightly lower and the NASDAQ slightly higher. Our clients have NO long or short exposure outside of their stock portfolios which we wish they would lighten up on as we are trying to build managed futures portfolios for anyone that has $1M plus in the market. Seriously imagine a $150,000-300,000 managed futures portfolio with a 5-10 year track record with relatively low volatility. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gold failed to follow through closing slightly off in today's session. $1750 is acting as resistance but on a trade above that level expect $1790. The 40 day MA is acting as a pivot point in March silver at $32.90. If today's low holds traders can remain long looking for $35. On a breach of $32.50 move back to the sidelines. Traders that are long currencies should remain in their longs but trail stops as the bullish sentiment has waned a bit. The 20 day MA is capping rallies in the Yen...we're looking for lower trade the next few days to exit remaining put options for clients. Nothing new in softs. Hold a small long in cocoa and look to add once we start moving higher.

Day three of the Treasury declines...those that are short should have stops in 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes just above the 20 day MA's. After a 50% Fibonacci retracement Euro-dollars were slightly lower today. We are still looking to re-establish shorts in 2013 contracts for clients at higher levels...stay tuned. Mixed bag in agriculture ...we are wanting to be a seller at higher levels and remain on the sidelines with most clients. Aggressive traders can be long February live cattle with stops below the 9 day MA at 122.70. Lean hogs resumed their downward move losing 1% today. We feel an interim top is in and would be adding to the position on a trade below 90.00 in February.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

The longer this despicable situation goes unresolved with MF Global the larger effect we see on the commodities market and overall financial system. We hope to see a resolution in the coming weeks. Crude is roughly $5 off its highs and we are operating under the influence that an interim high was reached this week. We are advising clients to be selling rallies and see Crude closer to $90 than $100 in the coming weeks. That being said we would expect the distillates to continue moving south in the short run as well. A potential triple bottom is in the making in natural gas but we are reaching trying to find a bottom. Wait for evidence or if picking a bottom have tight stops. We expect to end the week lower near the bottom of the recent trading range for the last four weeks. We remain mildly bearish expecting lower ground however clients have moved to the sidelines as clients had options that were decaying due to the sideways trade.

Gold held the 50 day MA for the second day in a row. Gold will close the week lower by approximately $65/ounce . We expect an additional $50-80 decline in the weeks to come...trade accordingly. The 40 day MA that had previously served as support should now act as resistance; in December at $32.50. Silver has lost roughly $3/ounce...we expect $2-3 more in the coming weeks. Mixed bag in currencies as the dollar is approaching overbought levels. We suggest moving to the sidelines on any futures positions.

Cotton lost 7% in the last two days dragging prices to four month lows. We missed a short entry and will be looking to establish bearish trades next week on a bounce...trade accordingly. The sentiment remains bearish in grains...in corn, wheat and soybeans. Note the head and shoulders formation in corn that on a breach of the neckline could indicate a major break...trade accordingly. Live cattle broke 1.65% today dragging prices to three week lows. Another 1.5-2.5% and clients will be looking to re-establish bullish trades. This would also fill the gap in the chart in February from late September. Lena hogs have gained six out of the last seven sessions lifting prices to three week highs. We would remain long thinking we get a probe to the contract highs in the coming weeks.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Stocks and commodities should come under pressure as we see lower trade across the board. The only aberration is oil which I remain puzzled on. Crude traded to a six month high closing above $101/barrel. I cannot find any justification for prices to remain at these elevated levels...that being said until we see signs of a top the sentiment remains bullish. We are looking for signs to justify a short entry but as of now we would just be jumping in front of a freight train. Distillates are signaling signs of an interim top so do not rule out further weakness in RBOB and heating oil to spill over into Crude. Natural gas continues its slide lower and now is less than 10 cents from our $3.25 target. We suggest waiting for a clear sign of a bottom because being cheap is not justification alone to be a buyer.

Stocks slide lower in late dealings to close near session lows. If we can garner some bearish momentum we may finally get the slide we've been forecasting. Our targets remain 1185 in the S&P and 11300 in the Dow. Gold and silver have failed to make any headway of late with gold down 1% today and silver lower by2%. Both metals appear to be rolling over as we are expecting a sub $1700 trade in gold and silver to find its way back closer to $30/ounce...trade accordingly. The dollar broke out to six week highs today and should continue higher at least in the short run. Our suggestion is bearish plays across the board with other crosses; the Pound and Yen remain our suggested vehicles. If and when Crude backs off and we are correct with our forecast in metals depreciating look for the commodity currencies to be the weakest; the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie.

Still on the sidelines looking for a higher short entry in cotton and coffee. Continue t o trail stops in any remaining bearish sugar trades. Bearish trade in 2013 Euro-dollars playing the short end of the curve remains our suggestion in this space. Refrain from trading the long end until we get a clearer picture. We have backed off any long or short exposure i grains as we continue to get mixed signals. We're still thinking live cattle could work lower and allow clients a long entry at better pricing...trade accordingly. Lean hogs lost 1% but remain well above the previous weeks lows. As long as the 9 day MA holds on a closing basis we like being in bullish trade.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

We may have to admit we're wrong in the next few days as a number of markets are exhibiting signs of higher ground. Stock, energies and metals could be on the verge of breaking out to new highs and we had previous forecast lower ground. Stay tuned as we may be adjusting our trading recommendations in the coming sessions. Crude oil if higher by 1.7% lifting prices to 3 month highs with prices approaching $96/barrel. Some clients remain short carrying a loss. If we do not see prices break down below the 9 day MA in the coming sessions we will be advising them to cut losses. Natural gas is lower by 2.3% today at a new contract low. There will be a time to get long but first we suggest waiting for confirmation of a bottom as we see no signs of a low yet.

Stocks were slightly higher and appear they will close just above the9 day MA. We favor selling into any further upside thinking we are due for a 5% correction...trade accordingly. Gold picked up 2.5% today trading to a 2 month high with prices approaching $1800/ounce. $11775 should support pullbacks and on a trade above $1800 expect $1850 to come into play. Silver was higher by 2.7% and as of this post is trading at $35/ounce. We see support at $33.50 and resistance at $35.50. Mixed bag in currencies with very little direction. We remain in our clients bearish trades in the Yen expecting a further breakdown. Coffee was higher by just better than 1% today trading higher for the last 3 sessions. We expect further upside and are looking to be a seller with clients on a trade closer to $2.50...trade accordingly.

The long end of the curve remains range bound as we little opportunity long or short in 30-yr bonds or 10-yr notes. On the short end aggressive traders could gain bearish exposure with stops above the recent highs. Agriculture was lower across the board with soybeans the biggest loser giving up 1.7%. We see lower ground ahead in corn, wheat and soybeans. We should have some preliminary estimates tomorrow for Wednesday's USDA report. Take profits on the remainder of live cattle longs as we are operating under the influence an interim high has been reached. Those probing longs in lean hogs should have been stopped out on today's fresh low. We will try scaling into longs again in the coming session once we see signs of an interim bottom. A 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement would drag December lean hogs just under 85.00...trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.