Recently in exchanges Category

According to our trusty sources on the CME floor, the last 11 times that the S&P has closed positive for 8 consecutive sessions the next trading day has seen a red close 81% of the time. This ignores magnitude but seems to be evidence that the market might be a little overheated up here.

Based on conversations that I have had with other analysts/traders, it is clear that the current rally has pummeled the bears into submission. It appears as though, many have run out of capital and conviction and have therefore, moved to the sidelines. Unfortunately, this can often be a precursor to a market reversal. Remember, markets tend to cause as much pain as suffering to speculators as possible and a reversal from here would catch the complacent bulls sleeping and act as the thorn in the side of the bears that have thrown in the towel.

Also, the headlines have gone from bearish to bullish and S&P 1300 seems to be back into conversations. However, it is the exact bullish sentiment that is luring sidelined cash into the market that makes me doubt the ability of recent gains to hold.

We don't know where the exact highs of this move will be, and if you have been following this newsletter you have likely realized that we turned bearish far too early into this rally. Nonetheless, we can't "buy" into this move.

We are sticking to yesterday's technical numbers...Resistance in the S&P near 1148 (but our floor brokers think 1153ish). The NASDAQ should struggle near 1921 with the next technical level being 1940 (ouch!). The Russell faces resistance at 673 and then again at 682.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini. Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

February 19 - Our clients were advised to sell the April 1165 calls for about $7.50, fills were coming in near $7.25 and a handful at $7.50.

March 5 - Clients with ample margin and guts, were recommended to add to this position by selling the 1165 calls for $9.50.

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

March 9 - Sell 1 mini Russell @ 682 OB

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

March 3 - Sell 1 e-mini NASDAQ at 1878 or better

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.DeCarleyTrading.com
www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Economic Woes Continue...

This week thus far we have traded a $43.00 range in the Comex Gold Market. This range has been primarily due to the U.S Dollars performance versus the the struggling European Union and the Euro. It has become apparent the situation in Europe is much worse than previously reported. It is my opinion that investors are looking to get away from the day to day speculation ratio between the Dollar and the Euro and are seeing safer havens. (precious metals).

So far this week has revealed more bad news regarding the U.S Economy.

Consumer Confidence has dropped to its lowest level since April 2009... This certainly indicates a lack of confidence by the American consumer as the are convinced the economy will be slow to rebound.

*New Home Sales Dropped 11%....

*Projections show 3 Million Homes will be reach foreclosure in 2010.

*The U.S Labor Department reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose by 22,000...
(496,000)...MUCH WORSE than expected. Economists were expecting a decline... (460,000)

*A Gallup - Poll reported 19.9% (30 Million) of American workers are UNDER employed

*FOMC Chairman Ben Bernanke has stated that KEY U.S Interest Rates will remain low...

The Precious metals have been supported through strong physical demand throughout the Asian sector as they are buying the price dips ...deeming it as "Bargain Hunting"...

The Chinese recently stated they were NOT interested in buying the remaining IMF Gold at these levels.....Are these the same Chinese who have boasted to the world that they will take their current 1500 metric tons status up to the10, 000 metric ton level in 10 years?

The Chinese posses a lot of U.S Dollars! They are using television promotions to educate their citizens to purchase Gold and Silver as a hedge against pending Inflation to help protect their new found wealth....The Peoples Bank of China has raised rates twice this month...stating they were not going to continue being the lending source for the Globe. A good poker player never tips their hand!!!

These precious metals are resilient !!!

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
mdaly@pfgbest.com
877-294-4669
312-775-3014
312-563-8029

*There is Extreme risk trading futures, options, and forex*

Gold Closes $21.90 Higher Today.... ($1039.70)

Today's Gold session traded all-time High's. Once again a very weak U.S. Dollar and Inflationary expectations fueled a mammoth rally in the Gold today. It started with the Australian Central Bank raised rates more than expected.The Australian Dollar jumped to a 14 month high. Gold futures climbed to $1044.70 (day session) While the U.S Dollar dropped 0.6 % against a basket of 6 currencies. Gold is becoming the "DOMINATE" world currency. The continued U.S Dollar weakness has investors concerned this will accelerate pending inflation. Also remember we are now in "VIRGIN" territory......

The following are my swing numbers for 10/07/09

(DECEMBER GOLD)

RESISTANCE #2........................$1053.00
RESISTANCE #1........................$1046.00
PIVOT.......................................$1038.00
SUPPORT # 1............................$1031.00
SUPPORT # 2............................$1023.00

Mike Daly /Gold Specialist
PFG BEST
mdaly@pfgbest.com
877-294-4669
312-775-3014

* THERE IS EXTREME RISK TRADING FUTURES,OPTIONS,and FOREX*

click the chart to enlarge

The Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is a basket of 17 major raw commodity futures prices rolled into one composite price index. It's an excellent gauge of the overall trend in commodity futures prices, as well as commodity price inflation. See on the daily chart for the CCI that prices have backed off from the summertime high. At present, there is the specter of a big and bearish double-top reversal pattern forming in the CCI. If prices drop below the solid technical support level seen on the daily CCI chart, then the bearish double top would be more likely to be confirmed and odds would increase that the CCI would trend lower in the coming weeks. Right now, the CCI is in "no man's land" between the key support and resistance levels on the chart. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

The Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange, BM&FBOVESPA, will host the 4th International Financial and Capital Markets Conference between August 27 and 30. The biennial event takes place in the city of Campos do Jordão, in São Paulo, Brazil. The Conference's objective is to promote derivatives and capital markets and to bring together in Brazil leading national and international speakers.

The Conference's official opening ceremony will take place on August 27, at 8 p.m., with speeches by BM&FBOVESPA's CEO, Edemir Pinto, and CME Group's CEO, Craig Donohue. The Exchange's Chairman, Arminio Fraga Neto, will deliver the event's closing speech on the 29 th, at 5:30 p.m.

The fourth edition of the Conference will feature as guest speakers: Raghuram Rajan, chief economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2007 and PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; David Altig, senior vice-president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, PhD in Economics from Brown University and adjunct professor of Economics at the University of Chicago; Eraj Shirvani, president of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association - ISDA, managing director of Credit Suisse, in London, and head of fixed income for EMEA; and Maria Helena Santana, president of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) and responsible for the implementation of the Novo Mercado segment at the Exchange, among others.

The Conference brings together market professionals, academics, politicians, regulators, and the media to debate the current state of the financial markets and future perspectives. This year, discussion topics include: the importance of risk management post subprime crisis, market regulation and supervision, organized OTC derivatives, and future domestic and international economic outlook.

The 4th International Financial and Capital Markets Conference is the most important event of its kind in Latin America, past speakers have included: Nobel Prize winners Edmund Phelps, Myron Scholes, Paul Krugman, and Robert C. Merton; managing director of the IMF, Rodrigo de Rato y Figaredo; ex-directors of the IMF, Stanley Fischer and Anne O. Krueger; and Brazilian authorities such as former President, Fernando Henrique Cardoso; Henrique Meirelles, president of the Central Bank of Brazil; and Marcelo Fernandez Trindade, ex-president of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM).

Speculators may be running for the exit doors on talks of more government involvement in the futures market, but I feel their exit may be premature seeing that the government is just talking at this point. Since the government has not screwed things up enough they are now discussing more stringent controls in the commodities markets. I welcome regulation when it works and the theory of instituting position limits sounds good, however the likelihood of volatility decreasing on that action is debatable. Contrary to popular opinion it is the speculator that plays a vital role in providing liquidity in the marketplace and without their involvement price distortions may in fact increase. Is it completely impracticable to think that changes in supply & demand could have a more significant impact on pricing? Perhaps the fact that commodities are becoming a more mainstream asset class, recent estimates show that $25 billion has poured into commodities in the first half of 09'.

With half of 2009 behind us investors may be wondering if they have enough exposure to commodities in their portfolios. Several commodities gained value in the first 6 months of the year on expectations for a global economic recovery and on worries of inflation. There are many uncertainties that remain unanswered, if, how strong, and the sustainability of this recovery. It may be smart to cover some of your commodity longs or scale back your exposure as it appears that in the immediate future we could see some give back. We're convinced this will not be a reversal but yet just a pause in a bull market with many more years of life.