Fed meeting this week as well as any new developments out of Europe. My suggestion is to always look one-two weeks in advance for upcoming economic events when initiating trades. Just when it appears Crude was destined to move lower prices reversed finishing 1.65% higher today. $1oo appears to be a magnet for pricing and until we get $3-4 north or south of that level expect sideways action to continue. I do not feel comfortable trading either side currently. A 9% appreciation in natural gas after posting a new low could be the capitulation low. Stay tuned but if prices can overtake $2.75 this week and hold onto gains we may have a low. As I hinted at last week prices generally make tops and bottoms at extreme sentiment levels and everyone has been bearish natural gas of late.

Equities crept higher today as the appreciation ytd is now over 3%. As long as the 9 day MA holds I remain friendly. Gold traded above the 50 day MA for the first time since mid-December when prices were above $1700/ounce. As long as $1650 supports we should see further upside. The 100 day MA at $1700 should be obtained in this leg in my opinion. Silver picked up 2% lifting prices to six week highs as prices are approaching the 100 day MA. Bulls remain in the driver's seat and I cannot rule out a further $2 appreciation in the weeks to come. Continue to trail stops though as prices are nearly 25% off levels seen just three weeks ago. The dollar has lost ground five out of the last six days closing below 80.00 for only the second time in 2012. I see further downside to come. All crosses with the exception of the Yen can be bought on dips. The Euro and Swissie will likely provide the best opportunities as they got hit the hardest in recent weeks and months.

OJ continues its climb to fresh record highs putting on almost 4.5% today. I do not see upside resistance being we're in uncharted waters. If coffee breaks the lows that held the last two months expect a test of $2/lb...trade accordingly. The momentum is shifting to the bears in Treasuries as 10-yr notes and 30-yr bond have lost ground the last four sessions. Weighing the risk soybeans have advanced too far but aggressive Ag traders could lightly step into corn and wheat with stops below the recent lows. I would be building a position assuming the market proves you right. Remain in your lean hogs and live cattle longs with stops just below the 20 day MA's. Forced to pick one livestock trade I prefer bullish exposure in April lean hogs.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

There was little to no big moves just the status qou. Crude turned down today trading down over 2% as of this post. If we see a settlement below $100 I will turn bearish. Next support is seen at $98 followed by $93 on the February contract. Natural gas gave up another 2% today taking prices below $2.70. I never thought we would see this much downside but most of my clients are ready to leave the trade so my gut tells me we're close to a turning point. The lows from 2 1/1 years ago are still 30 cents lower and at this juncture I cannot rule out a test. After testing the 9 day MA equities crept higher. Look for the grind higher to continue...1300 in the S&P and 12700 in the Dow look like likely targets.

Gold hit the 40 day MA but backed off by the close. I am targeting the 50 day MA which in the February contract is $1684. Silver also hit the 40 day MA closing higher by 0.90%. On this leg I anticipate another 3-4% appreciation. The US dollar is manic erasing previous day's gains closing back in on the 20 day MA. Use that level as your pivot point, in March at 80.80. On continued green back weakness expect the Swissie and Euro to outperform. Aggressive traders can sell cotton with stops above the 100 day AM. A level that has rejected further upside several times in recent months. In fact March has not settled above that level since mid-June of 2011.

Day two of the OJ correction with prices down limit today . The bubble has burst and more downside is expected...trade accordingly. Treasuries could go either way..walk away for now. Let the Euro-dollar work higher and then establish bearish trades from higher levels in 2013 contracts. A bearish USDA report and markets reacted with the front month of corn down 6%, soybeans lose near 2% and wheat 6%. Further downside is expected in this complex and if prices approach the November/December lows and hold I will be looking for a buying opportunity...stay tuned. Lean hogs tested and held support so on further base building I may re-explore longs for clients.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Jobs are being added and unemployment is dropping according to today's NFP but is it too little too late? The picture economically is bleak and I do not see a quick fix. Oil is getting support from the Iran situation but with economies faltering globally we should not expect this appreciation to continue. Well at least I do not expect the movement north to continue. It will take a close back under $100 for me to recommend clients to get positioned short again. Wider swings at tops and bottoms generally mean a trend change may be in the making as natural gas daily swings are expanding. It will take a move above $3.20 in February on good volume but next week the tide may shift...stay tuned.

As long as stocks maintain above their 9 day MA's I say markets have more work on the upside. That pivot point comes in at 1263 in the S&P and 12245 in the Dow. Gold and silver ended lower today but higher on the week. Do not rule out a setback especially with a strengthening dollar short term but I still anticipate higher trade. As I've voiced this week another $60ish in gold and $3 in silver...trade accordingly. The grind higher in the greenback also leads to further depreciation in other crosses. Chart damage was done in the Euro and Swissie as the momentum remains with the bears. Forex traders should be selling rallies in almost all crosses.

OJ jumps out as a sale failing to hold onto gains the last three sessions on the close. As long as we do not see another freeze I feel good about bearish trades with an exit if we see a fresh high. The 11% run up in the last two weeks is likely over done...in my opinion. Back off trading ideas long or short Treasuries as there just does not appear to be enough movement either way to trade. Oats are on the verge of making fifteen month lows and that could be setting the tone for what is to come in grains with the majors all losing this week. I think an interim high is in place in corn, wheat and soybeans...trade accordingly. Lean hog traders should be on the sidelines waiting for a lower long entry. Live cattle traders are getting closer to their exit on shorts as prices are down almost 3% in the last two weeks...stay short expecting more.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

The impressive start to the year in both stocks and commodities is coming into question as some big movers start to retrace. The message is clear 2012 like previous years will likely be a traders market NOT buy and hold. Crude failed at its highs and by day's end reversed to trade down nearly 2%. I've suggested clients to take off their positions and move to the sidelines. It would take a settlement back under $100 for me to gain bearish exposure again for aggressive clients. Natural gas erased al of yesterday's gains taking prices back near their lows. Just when I thought longs were out of the woods...very frustrating. On a new low expect follow through so do not get a large position on if you are willing to weather this.

Stocks found support at the 9 day MA closing near the upper end of their trading range. We are still expecting a further grind higher but tomorrow's action should be influenced by the jobs number in my opinion. Gold continues to climb higher as I feel we've seen about half of the current leg play out, February target $1680. Same comments on silver as yesterday the market appears to be taking a breath before the leg higher resumes, March target $32. The 20 day MA supported the dollar today as price raced 1% higher lifting prices near contract highs. Though we expect a trade back to 79.00 in March on a new high we would cancel that idea thinking momentum could lift prices near 83.00. Stay alert because an upside dollar breakout would likely lead to lower trade on other crosses. We're getting mixed signals and suggest being nimble trading both sides and implementing tight stops because there is no clear trend in forex currently with the exception of the Euro and Swiss which should continue down.

In full disclosure I recently voiced a bullish trade to no avail. Sell signals in coffee and sugar today...aggressive traders could gain bearish exposure. Continue to use the 20 day MA in Treasuries as your pivot point. Hopefully grain traders booked profits on their longs as price action appears to be reversing. Corn lost 2.28% today with wheat down 3.2% and soybeans off 1.7%. We anticipate further downside in the immediate future...trade accordingly. Continue to fade rallies in live cattle targeting a trade under 119.00 in February. Take longs off in lean hogs... most traders should be at break even or a slight profit depending on their entry.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Follow the flow of money as the dollar and Treasuries should benefit and stocks and commodities should suffer. Almost a $4 trading range and Crude is higher by just shy of 2% as of this post. The key today will be if prices close above or below the 9 day MA at $99.90 in January. We will continue to fade any strength as long as last week's highs continue to cap further upside. Natural gas appears to be in the green today making it the last two sessions... a very small victory all things considered. We would need to see exhaustion at the lows or a volume spike that fills the overhead gap to feel a low is in. Some clients own very small size a few months out and we are fine with that for now. Stocks should finish lower by approximately 1% making new lows on the week and likely headed lower. A breach of the 50 day MA, in the S&P at 1220 and in the Dow at 11700 should confirm lower ground. A 50% Fibonacci retracement drags prices back to 1285 and 11400 respectively.

We pointed out chart damage in gold and the bears seem to be back in the driver's seat with prices down 2% today. We may probe $1600/ounce on this leg so do not try to call a bottom just yet. As long as prices remain below $1670 on a closing basis our bias remains bearish. Silver gave up 1% and it appears that we will finally get a settlement below $31/ounce. We are targeting $29 on further depreciation this week. Copper lost just over 2% closing back under the 50 day MA for the first time in two weeks. Next stop should be $3.25 and possibly $3.10 in the March contract. A fresh 2011 high was made in the US dollar today so as expected all crosses were lower. With the European woes the Euro got hit breaking support approaching 2011 lows. As predicted the commodity currencies also were losers and they should continue to falter in the short run...trade accordingly.

In just two sessions cocoa is almost 13% off its lows hit yesterday. The fact that we were able to gain in the face of a stronger dollar also lends credence to further upside. We see the 50 day MA in March as a viable target at 2525. Further losses in commodities and stocks coupled with demand on Treasuries from the numerous auctions should keep 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes in the green. Use the 20 day MA as support as our bias is bullish in the short run. Traders can scale back into bearish plays in 2013 Euro-dollars with stops above the recent highs. Grains are finding their bearings and seem to be building a base...across the gamut corn, soybeans and wheat. Traders can start scaling into longs with stops below the recent lows. We are still accessing at what level we wish to get clients long live cattle..for now we like the sidelines. Lean hogs remain oversold as we are nearing a buy zone here as well...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Still waiting for a catalyst. January Crude continues to dance around the $100-102 level unable to find direction now for the last week. We favor scaling into to bearish positions at these levels expecting a break back near $90 in the coming weeks. Natural gas lost nearly 2% today as warm weather and lack of demand have hindered any upside. Aggressive clients sit on small bullish positions but it has been dead money now for the last three weeks. Wait for a close back above resistance before committing more capital.

Equities closed slightly higher today making it seven out of the last eight sessions. A positive close has gotten prices higher but not much as the S&P has been in a 20 point range and the Dow in a 225 point range...very little progress.

February gold bounced off the 100 day MA closing 0.75% higher today. Clients remain on the sidelines. Silver a commodity that is generally all over the place was like watching paint dry with a narrow range today. The sideways congestion continues and we do not want to guess higher or lower from here...wait for a clearer picture. Muted action in currencies with the biggest mover being an appreciation in the Pound. We see no new trade signals and are prepared to take a loss in the Yen with some clients unless we see a major break in the next few days...stay tuned.

Sugar was lower by nearly 5% and coffee got hit for 2.5%. sugar is back in sell mode and a breach of 22.70 in March could get ugly. The 20 day MA continues to cap additional upside in coffee and on the breach of the triple bottom that has held for several months we could see a sale at Starbucks.

Let the Euro-dollar work higher as we should see a challenge of the contract highs and still be able to sell from higher ground...stay tuned. Corn and soybeans continue to base out though wheat appears to challenge their recent lows with a 2.6% drop today. We have no suggested trades in agriculture currently. The selling in live cattle is slowing but we still are in bear mode thinking there is further downside...trade accordingly. As long as the recent highs act as resistance lean hogs should see further downside as well. Run stops in February around 89.50.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

As of this post Crude is just above $101/barrel and will close out the week positive after back to back losing weeks. We still favor scaling into bearish exposure looking for depreciation to follow. For the last two weeks natural gas has largely been contained in a 20 cent range. We view natural gas as a coiled spring and have advised clients to get positioned long anticipating an upside breakout. A 5-6% appreciation in stocks is likely over done but the concerted effort of Central banks was likely the biggest contributing factor. The lack of follow through the last two sessions leads me to believe that further upside may be limited. Clients have no position currently. The 100 day MA at $1723 should support while we see resistance just under $1790... I wish I could be more help.

Support is eyed in March silver just above $32 with resistance just under $34. My bias short term is neutral in both metals therefore clients have no exposure. The dollar closed higher today for the first time in six sessions finding support at the 34 day MA. All crosses closed lower today after positive action in recent sessions. We suggest moving to sidelines or lightening up if long with profits. Clients in December Yen options will hold into next week looking for a further breakdown. The bad news is the time decay is really kicking in so on a new low regardless of premium we will be looking for an exit door. Cocoa got slammed another 2.6% today dragging prices down for the last seven days. As we approach two year lows we feel we're buying value but don't get too large of a position because we have yet to see signs of a bottom. Our clients will be advised to add to their position once they are showing a profit...stay tuned.

Coffee is back in sell mode as prices have traded back to support after today's 2.6% decline. On a new low momentum traders will likely beat this position down...add on a fresh low. Treasuries bounced today....continue to use the 20 day MA as your pivot point. In 30-yr bonds at 142'13 and 130'15 in 10-yr notes. On a higher trade we will be trying to re-establish bearish plays in 2013 Euro-dollars for clients. Mixed bag in grains with corn lower and soybeans and wheat higher. We have told clients to wait for a trade higher and then we will be issuing bearish trade ideas...stay tuned. Live cattle ended lower the last two sessions but we're still expecting more downside before getting long with most clients. Those already long should be willing to let go at a loss on a settlement below 122.75 in February. Lean hogs continued lower losing 1.6% closing below the 20 day MA for the first time in two weeks. Stay short as prices should continue south.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Quiet trade today as it appears most markets are waiting for a signal on what's next. I would remain cautious and with a large cash position looking to pounce when select opportunities present themselves. In other words be selective as you deploy your investment capital. As of this post Crude is higher by 1.6% trading just under $100 and unable to get above yesterday's highs. We suggest using the strength today to be a seller and maintain that as long as we do not see fresh highs we are bearish. $93 in January is our first target followed by $89/barrel. The biggest mover in the energy complex today was natural gas and believe it or not the trajectory was higher with pricing higher by just better than 3%. Scale into longs in February and March looking to add on new highs. On a trade above $3.70 in January we think short covering could lead to a probe of $4...trade accordingly.

Stocks are slightly higher but as we voiced yesterday we do not see a sustainable trade above 1210 in the S&P and 11700 in the Dow. Gold continues to have trouble closing above the 100 day MA...the longer this persists the more likely we get lower trade. My bias remains bearish and I am operating under the influence we see a trade closer to $1650 in the coming weeks. Silver gave up just shy of 1% on an inside day as the $2 sideways range persists. A further liquidation could drag silver back near $29/ounce. The dollar finished lower for the second day running as we appear to be putting in an interim top. A 50% retracement in the dollar index would put December futures back near 77.00...trade accordingly.

Staying with the same theme forex traders could be short the Yen and long other crosses and long as the recent lows hold. The Pound appears to be the best buy risk/reward. The slide in cocoa continued today with prices down 12 out of the last 15 sessions but when is enough enough? I'm suggesting probing longs and adding once we get confirmation of an interim bottom. There is generally a negative relationship in cocoa and the dollar as well as a strong positive correlation with the Pound so as you read our forex commentary you'll understand why we suggest bullish exposure in cocoa. Coffee remains a sell as it appears we will break support that has held for two months this week or next...trade accordingly.

Both weekly and daily charts in the Euro-dollar are oversold so my suggestion is trail stops and let the market take you out of the trade if we do get a rally. With the exception of soybean meal Ag's were higher in today's session with wheat being the standout gaining nearly 3.5%. I'm operating under the influence we trade higher from here looking for a 4-6% appreciation in corn, soybeans and maybe more in wheat as prices have gotten beaten down the most. Cattle traders are advised to be on the sidelines looking for a lower long entry in 2012 contracts. The 9 day MA has supported lean hogs in recent sessions but we suggest reaming in bearish positions thinking we bust that level in February hogs closer to 89.000 in the coming weeks.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

A great saying I read on one of the blogs I read...eat turkey and do not be one. It was referring to doing homework when trading...having a plan and executing it. I for one am looking forward to some turkey and family time ...until next week! Crude oil worked lower again today as it appears this will be the second week that we see prices under pressure. We have traded approximately $7 lower and we think we've experienced about 50% of the expected move. Our targets in January are $92 followed by $89.50. RBOB is already finding buyers around current levels and the fact that heating oil has completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement we do not expect much more immediate downside. We have suggested our hedgers in distillates to start gaining partial long exposure. Natural gas is higher by 2% back above the 9 day MA. We like being long January, February and March contracts. By early Spring we expect to see prices 15% higher than they are currently...trade accordingly.

Our downside objectives have been met with the indices with the S&P at 1162 and Dow under 11300. We could see further downside as the weekly charts are ugly but we've advised clients to move to the sidelines for now. A common conversation we're having with clients is why it may make sense to hedge sizeable stock positions via index futures and or options. Contact us for more specifics. The 100 day MA in gold continues to cap further upside. As long as prices remain below $1710 we see new lows in the coming weeks. I'll have to re-evaluate next week but I think $1625/1635 is possible. The $2 wild trading range continues in silver as traders try to play the tug of war for control. If we cannot get above $33.50 in the next few sessions I see $29 by the first week of December...in my opinion.

WOW...the dollar broke out today gaining just better than 1% to two month highs. All crosses were hit with the Euro and Aussie falling the hardest. We like bearish exposure in the Yen but outside of that risk/reward we see no viable trades in forex. Aggressive traders can gain short exposure in March coffee with stops just above the 50 day MA. We may be a bit early but we like scaling into longs in March cocoa looking to add to the trade once prices are back above 2500. Continue to play the short end of the curve via 2013 Euro-dollars. Trail stops and let the trade work we are in this one for the long haul. Grains were lower by 1-3% today with the entire complex in the red with the exception of rice. On a bounce we would be looking to re-establish shorts with clients. We remain on the sidelines with clients looking for a lower long entry in live cattle. Lena hogs remain in bull mode but as previously stated on a trade above 92.00 in February book profits on longs as we're approaching overbought levels.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Light volume and a holiday week so do not read to much into the action this week. As we've stated for the last few weeks we're expecting more downside in the immediate future and welcome rallies as selling opportunities in most products we trade with clients. We remain bearish Crude oil with the same advice as yesterday. Expect the 9 day MA to act as resistance at $98.65 with support eyed at the 18 day MA at $96.25 in the January contract. We expect in the coming weeks to see oil make its way to $92 and potentially under $90/barrel...trade accordingly. Being we've seen a 20-25 cent break in the distillates we've advised those needing to hedge to re-establish a 50% hedge. We could see lower pricing but the fact that we have seen the depreciation we've seen we see it prudent to have partial protection...trade accordingly.

Echoing yesterday's advice aggressive traders can start scaling back into bullish trades in natural gas. A settlement over $3.65 should signal a trade back to $4.00 in the coming weeks. The 50 day MA continues to act as a pivot point capping rallies in the S&P today and the Dow has bounced around that level all day. We see further downside on light holiday volume to finish out the week. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement drags the S&P 25 points from current levels and 325 lower in the Dow. Gold held yesterday's low gaining 1.25% today. If the 100 day MA caps any further upside at $1710 expect new lows. Silver advanced just over 5% today and settled above the 40 day MA. This action has made us less bearish but we still would like to see a trade above $33.50 in December to believe there is not further downside.

The dollar and Yen look like traders could be sellers at these levels while all other crosses appear to be finding mild support. Our suggestion is exiting remaining Pound shorts while remaining short he Yen. On a positive day in cocoa tomorrow continue to scale into March bullish trades. Tighten stops in Euro-dollars and let the market stop you out if we get a rally from oversold levels. If in a profit in grain shorts book profits and move to the sidelines. Lean hogs are approaching over bought levels...on a probe above 92.00 in February book profits. We have yet to get clients re-positioned long but we may need to buy at higher levels than previously reported based on the recent action...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.