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Crude oil broke through the $80 a barrel ceiling repeatedly during the week but kept falling back as hedge funds placed big bets on the Euro's decline.

The fiscal drama in Greece held global markets hostage much of the week as worries about the impact of the Greek crisis on the euro outweighed comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke about continued low interest rates in the U.S., pushing the euro down against the dollar and damping crude prices.

The euro recovered some ground on Friday amid new reports of European aid for Greece after falling to a nine-month low of $1.3440 on Thursday. Germany's state-owned bank KfW may take part in a planned Greek bond offering next week, according to market reports.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that a small group of elite hedge fund traders have concluded that the euro could be headed to parity with the dollar and their bearish bets are increasing the downward pressure on the 16-nation currency.

The Journal compared the situation to the hedge fund attack on the dollar in 2008. However, the trades are not expected to lead to a collapse of the currency as the attacks of George Soros on the British pound did in 1992, the paper said.

Positive U.S. economic data on Friday, including a revised fourth-quarter GDP annual growth rate of 5.9%, help crude oil futures claw back some of Thursday's losses and near the $80 threshold again. Nymex's benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled at $79.66 on Friday, after topping $80 earlier in the week.

In spite of crude's difficulties in staying above $80, some analysts issued bullish prognoses for energy futures. Goldman Sachs forecast a new trading range of $85 to $95, up from the $70 to $80 of the past several months, amid supply disruptions from the North Sea and Venezuela and the impact of the Total refinery strike, which was resolved earlier this week.

Other analysts, too, looked for fundamental supply and demand considerations to reassert themselves amid the currency turmoil and lift crude oil futures into a higher trading range. Oil futures prices gained more than 9% in February but remained below January's highs.

By Darrell Delamaide of OilPrice.com who focus on, Fossil Fuels Metals, Crude Oil Prices and Geopolitics To find out more visit their website at: www.oilprice.com

Ready, set, start shopping! Yes, we are entering the spring housing season when buyers appear to shop and find homes. Why the sudden rush, well, it is clear that interest rates are not going to go any lower and it is just as clear that interest rates on home mortgages likely will increase in the future. The Federal Reserve has signaled to the markets that the free lunch is over so, those who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for further declines in home prices will be encouraged to purchase the sought after home and lock in the rates now. Naturally, this will appear as an encouraging sign for the economy. Look for the housing numbers to increase in the next few months. Remember too that some of these purchases will steal from future purchases and that we likely will see an upward blip now, and a slow down later. This the same type of behavior that we saw in car sales during the cash for clunkers promotions. A further government encouragement is the tax breaks for first time purchases and purchases that will expire in April.

The market, as measured by the S&P 500 has been in rally mode for the past six trading session, although the trading session on Friday left a doji like candle on the chart. We would not fault the market if, it decided to take a break from the current rally to allow for some backing and filling. Friday's action left an outside day on the chart. When the bears had the ball they failed when the bulls had it they also failed this leads us to believe that Friday's action was a transition day which could lead to a reversal of direction. It appears that the market took the Fed's hike in the rate as a positive, acknowledging that the economy seems to be expanding. It further appears that the Fed is on watch and trying to extricate itself from the stimulus game, although they have said, at their meeting, that they stand at the ready to do whatever is necessary to prevent an economic implosion. We wonder how they will handle the bankruptcy of the various states here in the USA. Are they going to rescue New York or California, after all, both states are larger and more populated than is Greece.....hum?

Tuesday: February consumer confidence is released at 10:00 and December Case-Shiller home price index for December is released at 9:00. Wednesday: January new single-family home sales are released at 10:00 and January equipment leasing and finance index is released at 10:00. Thursday: January durable goods are released at 8:30, mutual fund sales and redemptions and December house price index is released at 10:00. Friday: 4th quarter GDP is released at 8:30, January existing home sales are released at 10:00, and Chicago purchasing managers' report for February is released at 9:45.

The US Dollar index traveled above the upper Bollinger band, intraday in the Friday session, a moved back inside the band. Actually, the US Dollar index opened on a bullish spike looking a lot like a short-covering rally, and then, when the buyers retreated, the sellers took the lead and leaned on the market bringing it back to the previous day's range. This action illustrates the power of a short-covering rally. It would not surprise us to see the US Dollar index trade down to 79.64 and perhaps 79.085 before starting another rally. The uptrend line is at79.93 for the Monday session and 79.97 for this coming Friday. We are overbought as measured by all the indicators that we follow for the weekly time-frame. The daily time-frame is near overbought levels and pointing higher. The 5-day moving average is at 80.277. The top of the Bollinger band is at 81.179 and the lower edge is seen at 78.253. We are above the Ichimoku clouds for the daily time-frame but remain below the clouds for both the weekly and the monthly time-frame. If we could see the US Dollar index close above 81.53, we will see more shorts scared out of their positions.

The action on Friday in the S&P 500 was a clear rejection of the high and a rejection of the low. It would not surprise us to see the S&P 500 retreat to 1084.16 and even 1075.87. The stochastic indicator, the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator and our own indicator are all overbought. Both our own indicator and the stochastic indicator have just issued a sell-signal. The RSI is going sideways slightly below overbought levels and the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is doing the same but at overbought levels. The 5-day moving average is at 1085. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1113.07 and the lower edge is seen at 1051.57. Friday was the sixth day up, and the probability of a retreat is likely. We are inside the Ichimoku Clouds on the daily time-frame, above the clouds for the weekly time-frame and below the clouds for the monthly time-frame. We would be very cautious moving forward, so stay nimble.

The NASDAQ 100 also enjoyed a sixth day of a higher close than open in the Friday session. We see signs of exhaustion. The NASDAQ 100 lost 1.50 in the Friday session. The stochastic indicator is issuing a fresh sell-signal as is our own indicator and the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator. The RSI is going sideways near overbought levels. We are inside the Ichimoku clouds for the daily and monthly time-frames but are above the clouds for the weekly time-frame. The 5-day moving average is at 1818.16. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1893.15 and the lower edge is seen at 1673.11. The market looks heavy and could use some time to back and fill or retreat. The Market Profile chart tells us that should the NASDAQ 100 close above 1819.75; it likely will quickly rally to 1841.50.

The Russell 2000 was the best performer in the Friday session. This index close up 2.50 for the day while the S&P 500 closed up 0.70 and the NASDAQ 100 lost 1.50 on the day. The stochastic indicator and the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator are both issuing a sell-signal. Our own indicator looks as though it might issue a sell-signal in the next session. The RSI is sitting at the overbought line going sideways. We do have signs of exhaustion, on this, the sixth day up. The Russell 2000 closed above the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily time-frame and remains above the clouds for the weekly time-frame as well. The 5-day moving average is at 612.62. The top of the Bollinger band is at 633.05 and the lower edge is seen at 583.13. We could see some follow-through buying early in the Monday session but we believe that a rest is warranted now and that we likely will see some backing and filling or a decline in the coming days.

Crude Oil rallied in the Friday session taking it above the upper edge of the Bollinger band and above the Ichimoku Clouds. The stochastic indicator is overbought and continues to point higher. The RSI is pointing higher with plenty of room to the upside. The 5-day moving average is at 76.09. The top of the Bollinger band is at 79.41 and the lower edge is seen at 70.57. We suppose that the Feds recent action inspired the crude oil bulls into believing that the economy is expanding and thus will need more crude oil. We are not entirely sure that the expansion will be as robust as crude oil is forecasting. So far so good, the market looks as though it has further to run to the upside.

Gold is going sideways and is below the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily time-frame. The stochastic indicator is overbought but continues to point higher. The RSI is not overbought and has plenty of room to the upside. The 5-day moving average is at 1101.58. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1133.98 and the lower edge is seen at 1053.29. The chart looks as though the market is consolidating at these levels. The weekly chart looks like there is plenty of room to the upside and that gold is breaking above the downtrend line. We find gold above the Ichimoku clouds for the weekly time-frame. We will remain on the sidelines until gold trades above 1140.30 at which point, we will go long.

Crude oil was higher for the first time in 4 sessions but we only gained 70 cents after the $7 route that is not much. It appears that buyers are emerging but we would suggest waiting for the inventory # this week before establishing fresh positions. For now $70 should support and $73 should act as resistance in the March contract. Natural gas reversed to close down almost 2% on the day. Clients are flat though we think lower pricing is likely we wish to have no exposure. Clients are starting to buy June RBOB call spreads anticipating prices to get back above $2.20 in the coming months; we like this trade and clients currently own $2.16/2.28 spreads. We will be looking to sell rallies in the ES and SP for clients; we see resistance at 1069, 1084, 1100.

For the most part softs and ag's were bid up today ahead of tomorrow's USDA report. Sugar closed back above the 50 day moving average but well off its highs today gaining 1.6%. We are still looking for a trade lower and are pricing out May and July calls to purchase if we get a break. On a trade near $1.50 in May OJ we will be looking for an exit on clients longs. Corn a gainer by 1.3%, wheat by 2.25%, soybeans up by 1.75%. Clients are positioned long corn and soybean meal. Continue to scale into short exposure in the Euro-dollar! We are continuing to get mixed signals in live cattle; the fundamentals say lower and the technicals say higher so be careful. Clients are in a delta neutral strategy in April live cattle. April lean hogs are back above the 20 day moving average but failed to get above the trend line. We have no exposure with clients and would suggest giving the trade a few days before making a call on direction.

Silver and gold were slightly higher but we still have yet to be 100% convinced that the selling is over. Clients are lightly long silver and have no gold exposure unless they put the trade on themselves. Clients were advised to go long the Aussie today via June 90 cent calls; today at just under $1400/per. Additionally currency traders are still long the Euro and short the Yen. This trade got a little better today but clients are still under water.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Any trader who tries to pick tops or pick bottoms is destined to fail. When we buy/sell clients a commodity it is not because we are picking a bottom or top but rather we think either the commodity is undervalued or overvalued so we are looking for a move in the coming hours, days, weeks or months. Oil closed down today near the weekly lows not a great end to the week but we remain confident that this is a good level for traders with a time frame over 4 weeks. As we've voiced we feel we are close to turning higher and expect $80 before the May contracts expire. Aggressive clients started buying natural gas with stops below the weekly lows today. We prefer May call spreads and will have some ideas next week.

The rally I was waiting for to sell the ES and S&P may not come; some of our more aggressive clients are short and I commend them for their bravery. We see resistance at 1082 and support at 1055 followed by 1030. Cocoa was lower by 2.3%, those short look to book profits on trade below 3150 next week. We should know Monday if sugar will correct or not as prices took 3 attempts at 30 cents this week and failed. Clients that hold calendar spreads were advised to buy May call protection against a breakout to new highs. OJ was lower by 5% today though the trend line that has held since October is still intact on the May contract. If that level gives way we may cut losses on client's options next week. March silver held $16/ounce again today and gold was only lower by $2. This in not too bad considering the action in outside markets. Our sentiments have not changed. Euro-dollars end the week back at pre Fed levels; we still suggest lightly scaling into shorts or buying long dated puts.

Clients have no exposure yet in soybeans or soy meal so we welcome the slide lower but corn down 1.5% we do not like as much. December is trading at the lowest level since the first week of October; we're suggesting getting long. Clients went flat on their June live cattle at a small profit; there is too much uncertainty presently. On a break we would look to re-enter bullish plays. Continue to sell rallies in the Pound. Clients took off their Aussie puts today in the morning at a small loss on the Q4 GDP#. I am impressed with the dollars strength this week but moving forward expect a sideways 77/80 cent range NOT the appreciation we've seen.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Stochastics are putting in a rounding bottom and though we've not recommitted capital in futures with clients we still recommend accumulating call spreads in May as oil should be turning higher very soon. Looking at the chart formation we could be forming a "W" which predicts a trade back above $80 in the next 90 days. Just my opinion others may see it differently. Natural gas traded below $5.10 in March and was rejected but we would suggest further evidence before trying to catch this falling knife.

In Monday's commentary we will post a few long trade suggestions. We will see on the close but at the moment if we were to close at these levels I see a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart in Indices. Some or our clients started shorting the ES today; we suspect a bit premature thinking a trade to 1125 is feasible. At that level we suggest short exposure. OJ prices were lower by almost 2% today; clients remain long and still need higher pricing to reach their profit objective. Sugar was higher by 2.25% though we are still anticipating a breach of the 20 day moving average and more downside before re-establishing longs for clients. I was impressed with the action in metals today; gold closed $14 off its lows back above the 50 day moving average and silver was unable to break $16/ounce paring its losses but still closing below the 100 day moving average. Because the mixed signals we maintain only having light long exposure.

Love the action in corn today as the 61.8% Fibonacci level held and a base looks to be forming. Clients are buying May and July calls and December futures. Expect to see some bullish recommendations in soy meal and soybeans in Monday's commentary as well. Would've liked to see some follow through in the Euro-dollar today. Continue to scale into shorts at these levels. If the 20 day moving average holds into the weekend in lean hogs we most likely will suggest bullish exposure in April...stay tuned. As for live cattle clients are long June futures with put option protection. We've yet to make any plays for clients in August but you will know when we do. Continue to sell rallies in the Pound; some clients scalped 85 ticks today! On a challenge of 88 cents tomorrow in the March Aussie we suggest taking off your puts. The US dollar has gained 7 out of the last 10 sessions and we do NOT think it is sustainable. We are not suggesting shorts but if prices rollover the Ag's, energies and metals could appreciate swiftly...trade accordingly.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

What is the market going to do for the coming year? The belief that all is well and that we are out of the woods regarding the recession, could be true and then again they might just be a pipe dream. All we see is a jobless recovery bordered by restricted lending by banks and increased saving from the consumers--does this sound familiar? Well it should as this is the third jobless recovery our economy has had. People continue to live in fear of not being able to make their bills and, because of that fear won't spend money easily--this will hurt the very fragile recovery. A great deal of the recovery depends on consumer spending. Here in the North East, we are just getting our winter utility bills which reflect the colder weather. Certainly, some of these bills will restrain the ability for the consumer to spend. We have seen a new trend, people flocking to malls for the heat so that they don't need to heat their homes to stay warm. Now that is scary.

This week we begin with earnings season with Alco beginning the parade. We expect earnings to be okay, but what won't be okay is cash flow from current business. Most of the earnings are coming from cut backs in costs rather than increased production. While the headline number might be good, dig into the number and look for cash from operations to discover if this recovery is flowing to the bottom line.

Monday: St Louis fed President speaks.

Tuesday: November international trade is released at 8:30, Crop report is released and Tiffany released its holiday sales.

Wednesday: The beige-book is released at 2:00, and the European Central Bank issues its interest rate decision.

Thursday: December import prices are released at 8:30, December retail sales are released at 8:30, November business inventories are released at 10:00 and INTEL reports its earnings.

Friday: December CPI is released at 8:30, December industrial production and capacity utilization is released at 9:15, January Michigan Survey is released at 9:45-10:00, and Richmond Fed president Lacker speaks.

The US Dollar index declined under the weight of the dreary "jobs" report released in the Friday session. The chart shows that Friday was an outside day. The candle is a bearish looking candle. So long as the US Dollar index stays above 77.39 we will remain constructive however; should the US Dollar close below 77.39, the door will be open to 76.658. Naturally, as the US Dollar retreats we find dollar based commodities increasing. Crude oil has been increasing even with the strong US Dollar and this current weakness will be a positive boost to crude oil. All the indicators that we follow continue to issue a sell-signal for the US Dollar index. The indicators show that there is plenty of room to the downside. The weekly chart looks as though we have made a top and will go lower. We have an outside week on the chart. All the indicators that we follow are issuing a sell-signal on the weekly chart. The downtrend line is at 78.467 and to reverse the current trend of the market, we would need to close above that line. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds on the daily time-frame but are below the clouds for both the weekly and the monthly time-frame. The 5-day moving average is at 77976. The top of the Bollinger band is at 79.115 and the lower edge is seen at 76.405.

The S&P 500 has been up for the entire first week of trading in the New Year. That said, we have signs of exhaustion and we seem to be climbing the upper edge of the Bollinger band. The upper edge of the Bollinger band is 1141.53 and the lower edge is seen at 1093.85. The 5-day moving average is at 1127.83. We are overbought as measured by all the indicators that we follow, all of which continue to issue a buy-signal. Naturally, we are above the Ichimoku Clouds on the daily and weekly charts but are below the clouds for the monthly time-frame. When we apply Fibonacci retracements on the monthly chart, we are slightly above the 50% level. The indicators on the weekly and the monthly time-frames are extremely overbought and continue to point higher. When we look at the Market Profile chart we are in the single print area which tells us that there is no overhead supply to work through and that we are in an area of high instability. There are two things that can happen now, either we melt up or we go back to 1127.04 or so where we will find some stability. These certainly are interesting times.

The NASDAQ 100 rallied in the Friday session and closed at a higher level than the open leaving a green candle on the chart. The NASDAQ 100 is grossly overbought as measured by the indicators that we follow. All the indicators continue to issue a buy-signal. The 5-day moving average is at 1877.83. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1917.39 and the lower edge is seen at 1769.77. Naturally, we are above the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily and the weekly time-frames but we are in the clouds for the monthly time-frame. We remain overbought on all time-frames. The chart tells us that we can continue higher. The market profile chart shows us that we are in an area of instability.

The Russell 2000 is grossly overbought, but without any signs of an impending sell-off. The 5-day moving average is at 634.25. The top of the Bollinger band is at 650.12 and the lower edge is seen at 594.61. We are above the Ichimoku clouds for the daily and weekly time-frames. We are overbought on all time-frames. The uptrend line for the daily chart is at 632.20. We wouldn't be surprised to see a further push to the upside. It seems as though the bulls have more energy left. We do see some resistance at 644 or so.

Crude Oil left a doji candle on the chart for the Friday session. Remember a doji indicates a transition and, perhaps a change of direction. Crude oil is overbought as measured by all the indicators that we follow herein. The 5-day moving average is 80.90. The top of the Bollinger band is at 85.67 and the lower edge is seen at 67.22. Crude oil has been rallying in spite of a strong US Dollar. As we said last week, it looks as though there is real demand for the product. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily, monthly and quarterly time-frames but we are in the clouds for the weekly time-frame. We are overbought on all time-frames. It would not be surprising to see some consolidation and perhaps a retreat before the next run to the upside.

It would seem that all the commodities that we follow are overbought, gold is not. Gold closed higher in the Friday session but remains inside the Ichimoku Cloud for the daily time-frame. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for the weekly and the monthly time-frames. Gold differs from the other commodities in that it is not overbought on all time-frames but is overbought on the daily time-frame. Actually, we are getting a buy-signal on the weekly chart. The Bollinger bands indicate that we will be moving into a period of higher volatility. We remain cautiously bullish on gold.

Definition/theory:
Swing trading is typically defined as a trading practice whereby the underlying instrument is bought or sold at or near the end of an up or down price swing caused by daily or weekly price volatility. A swing trade position is typically open longer than a day, but shorter than trend-following trades or buy-and-hold investment strategies. Although a number of commodity trades that I've been involved in have been quick, others have lasted several months. The average duration of our commodity swing trades in 2009 has been 3-6 weeks.

Explanation/how to (stochastics, channels):
Swing traders attempt to forecast changes in an instrument's price caused by oscillations as it "swings" around the dominant trend line. The price is alternately bid up by optimism and then bid down by pessimism over a period of a few days, weeks, or months. Profits can be sought by engaging in either long or short trading at each reversal.

Identifying whether a market is currently trending higher or lower, trading sideways and when this will change is a challenge for many swing trading and long term trend following trading strategies. A common misconception is that swing traders need perfect timing, to buy at the bottom and sell at the top of markets is impractical. Small consistent earnings that involve strict money management rules can potentially compound returns appreciably. It is crucial to understand that there are no fail-safe mathematical models that will always work so only use such parameters as research tools, also including both fundamental and technical analyses not as definitive decision engines but rather guidelines.

Risk of loss in swing trading typically increases in a trading range or sideways market as opposed to in a bull market or bear market. A market that is clearly moving in a specific direction, albeit up or down is more appropriate for swing trades. A sideways or non trending market increases the potential for whipsaws or false breakouts. In trending markets (either a bear market or a bull market), momentum may carry the traded instrument's price for a much longer time in one direction only, making swing trading strategies that do not incorporate this trending less profitable than trend following strategies.

If the first day of trading in the commodity market is any tell of what is to come in 2010 than commodity bulls will remain in the drivers seat. With out reading too much into today's movement the dollar got clipped and funds were buying. Crude oil rallied an additional $2 today which has prices approaching their October highs. The easy money has been made on longs and we would not rule out a set back on profit taking. We will be looking to approach longs for clients on a $3-5 set back. We are expecting a correction in natural gas and would be willing to explore longs closer to $5.25. We are trying to work out of May longs in sugar for clients and then will look to re-establish longs on a 2-3 cent pull back.

The almost 20% appreciation in the last 3 weeks has prices a bit ahead of themselves in my opinion in the short run. We missed a good entry for coffee longs last week as prices were higher by 4.25% today. We continue to price out bullish plays in May on futures and options...stay tuned.

The stock market raced to new highs today and though we do not suggest jumping in front of this freight train we're looking to gain short exposure, most likely after Friday's NFP #. As long as February gold does not break $1080 and March silver stays above $16.80 on a closing basis we like having clients long. For fresh entries put stops below last weeks lows in futures, for options we're helping clients with strategies with call spreads in both metals out until at least May. As we hinted in this mornings commentary the recent appreciation in oats may be signaling an impending bullish moves in agriculture; today did not disappoint.

Our pick of the litter remains longs in corn. The Euro-dollar technically looks set for a rally...we would suggest fading it. Though we remain bullish live cattle I'm a bit disappointed with today's activity with February losing almost 1%. Ideally the 20 day moving average at 85.00 should support. Longer term we still expect 89/90 cents.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.