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Back to Work

After a long weekend the markets are back to normal trading hours. Crude will finish just shy of 2% higher but will not retake the 9 day MA; in March at $101.25. I have advised the sidelines thinking we remain in the $10 range and do no wish to establish a position being we started the day near the middle of the range. Multi-year lows in natural gas with prices down near 7% today. This makes it five losing sessions in a row with no bottom in site.

Equities inch higher as the 9 day MA continues to support. Use that level as your pivot point; in the March Dow at 12370 and the S&P at 1282. Gold traded above the 40 day MA again today closing just under that mark. I'm expecting a further leg higher and this would be accelerated if the dollar was to back off. I see support at $1635 in February as our upside target remains $1680...trade accordingly.

Support is seen in silver just above $29 in March with an upside target of $32. The big mover today was copper breaking resistance and advancing to four month highs. This was likely from the continued growth out of China. Q4 GDP coming in just under 9% is certainly nothing to sneeze at.

The dollar is exhibiting signs of fatigue but I would like to see a settlement below the 20 day MA before getting too committed . That level is 80.90 in the March contract...trade accordingly.

Aggressive traders could buy the Euro or short the Yen with tight stops. Both trades are a slight forces so I would hold off for confirmation. Cotton closed above the 100 day MA for the first time in seven months...take off all bearish trades at a loss.

For nine sessions Euro-dollars have picked up steam. There will be a time to get short but until we see signs of an interim top let the market work higher. I am still looking for signs of a bottom before reestablishing longs for clients in any of the Ag markets. I believe we have a shot of seeing the December lows challenged so be patient.

Livestock traders could be back long April live cattle and lean hogs with stops just under the 20 day MA. I like the prospect of higher hog prices and the technicals appear a little less risky in my opinion.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Mathew Bradbard Commodity Update

When Crude was negative in early dealings we reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level; our first target. A trade below $92.50 in February and we could see $89. At that level we would be looking to reverse and shift from a bearish stance to bullish stance...stay tuned. If we do see a further $3-4 slide in Crude expect the products to slide roughly 10 cents/gallon...trade accordingly. The pace of selling has slowed but we still do not see signs of a bottom in natural gas. As we've said we need a spike in volume likely combined with some cold weather or jump in usage. I never thought I'd see a sub $3 trade months ago but it may just happen. When nat gas bottoms we want to be onboard with clients but we may be premature. If long with small size out to March stay the course for now...you have time on your side.

The 50 day MA continues to act as magnet in the indices as prices did not wander far from that level the last few sessions. Based on the technicals we favor a further break...maybe 3-4% by year's end. The metals complex managed a positive trade today but ended the week lower with losing over $100/ounce on the week and silver down just over $3/ounce. A lot will be dependent on outside markets but we welcome a bounce in the coming weeks in both gold and silver to sell into for aggressive clients. I do not see gold back above $1700 or silver above $33 this year...in my opinion.

The dollar has experienced an impressive run but we're likely running on fumes and we could back off very shortly. That being said on signs of a retracement we will be looking to exit all remaining shorts in other crosses and start exploring bullish trades. The best candidates appear to be the Swissie, Euro and Pound as long as we do not see fresh lows. I would hold off buying the commodity currencies as commodities could see more pressure into year's end.

For the first time in seven weeks cocoa prices were higher on a weekly basis. Last week's lows should serve as an interim low so buy dips. Cotton and coffee remain on our sell list as we see lower ground in both. On the weekly chart coffee is on verge of breaking the 100 day MA...on this selling should intensify...trade accordingly. 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes appear to be heading for higher ground as we expect new contract highs in the coming sessions. As for the short end of the curve continue to scale into bearish trades in 2013 Euro-dollars.

Wheat and corn are still trying to find a bottom while soybeans may have found it with a bullish acreage number out of Informa today. Soybean futures gained 1.6% today closing above the 20 day MA for the first time in nearly two months. Aggressive traders can gain bullish exposure with stops below the recent lows. Remain on the sidelines in live cattle for now. Lean hogs were lower by 2.4% today approaching seven month lows. We are advising scaling into longs. We would advise having 50-65% of your intended long position on at this time.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

11/11/11 MF Global's Disaster

11-11-11 is this a lucky day? More so than luck how about some justice..I'll feel a lot better when steps are taken to make MF Global clients whole and the sanctity of the commodities industry is repaired. Regulators and exchanges do not get it!

Crude oil will end the week roughly $5 from where we started the week as prices are approaching $100/barrel. Prices appear to be headed higher and most clients are out of their short and licking their wounds. Do we think higher prices are justified... NO but we will likely see a test of $101...trade accordingly. Natural gas is approaching levels not seen in 14 months as prices could get close to $3.25 in the coming weeks. We would recommend waiting for a bottom as opposed to catching this falling knife. Volatility persists in the stock market as 2-3% daily swings is a daily occurrence. A break below 1215 in the S&P signals lower ground while a trade above 1275 should be followed by higher trade. I wish we could be more help...sorry. We have some clients mildly bearish in ES puts but will cut losses on higher trade.

As of this post both gold and silver are higher by 1.6%. On the week after all the back and forth gold will finish up 1%. A break below $1740 which we favor takes prices under $1700 while a trade above $1800 we could challenge the record highs. I do not have a feel and recommend the sidelines. Silver again is unable to take out the 50 day MA and remains range bound. Still feels like Vegas to me...just saying. Copper was higher today for the first time in six sessions. We expect this to be short lived...trade accordingly. If the dollar continues south into to next week all crosses with the exception of the Yen can be bought. After the major break in the Yen we have retrace 61.8% . Those with option spreads were advised to buy back their top legs. If we are correct we should see prices roll over and move back towards the lows and clients can make money on both legs...stay tuned.

Continue to let cocoa work lower but next week we should have some bullish trade suggestions...stay tuned. The short ends of the yield is back in play. Our suggestion is bearish trade in 2013 Euro-dollars. Contact us for specifics but risk/reward this may be the best trade going for those traders who can exercise patience. Agriculture remains a sale with corn the best prospect in my opinion. I feel bears have 25 cents of risk on March corn and 50-75 cents of profit potential. Live cattle is down for the last six sessions and appears still to be headed lower. Aggressive traders can be short with stops above the 20 day MA. Hog traders should have bullish exposure as we think an interim low was established this week...trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Is this Rally Real

It is too early to tell if this is a true turnaround but we at minimum view it as a tradable event...time will tell. Crude is $7 off its lows from just yesterday hitting the 9 day MA on its highs today but we're not out of the woods just yet. Continue to buy dips but do not be a hero until things stabilize. We like the action but are not 100% convinced the worse is behind us...stay alert. Further upside in the distillates should bolster the bullish case for oil but we need to see more positive action in the coming sessions. Natural gas remains a buy as we continue to tell clients to get a small position and add to the winner once the markets proves us right. Risk to reward at these levels we feel longs in natural gas are one of your best bets.

A potential band-aid on the European situation caused a rally in overseas markets that spilled over to our equity market domestically with the indices gaining for the third consecutive session. On a settlement over the 50 day MA expect the momentum to increase. Those levels are 1200 in the S&P and 11400 in the Dow. Both levels just out of reach from today's session highs. I 'm feeling far better with my most recent buy recommendations in gold and silver with prices higher by 3.6% and 7% respectively as of this post. Like oil we are not out of the woods but we're operating under the influence that dips should still be purchased.

If December gold can maintain the 100 day MA at $1635 we feel $1700 will be the next level in the coming sessions followed by $1745 the 50 day MA. December silver needs to hold $31/ounce. We are looking for a trade closer to $35 to exit or most recent client purchases. Those for the long haul could look at March 2012 bull call spreads. Copper is on our radar and if we see a probe south we may initiate longs...stay tuned. At a minimum monitor the action in "Doc Copper" to help navigate outside markets. The dollar traded down 1% today exhibiting classic signs of an overstretched market. On continued selling use the 20 day MA as your first target at 77.15 in December.

The Pound, Loonie and Swiss continue to be buys in our eyes. Our targets are as follows: 1.5815, 1.000 and finally 1.1600. Cocoa has appreciated 4% in the last two sessions and it may be the beginning of the move we've been calling for in recent weeks. Our suggestion remains bullish exposure in March contracts. Stand aside and let sugar and coffee work higher before initiating shorts again. Today sugar was higher by nearly 4% and coffee added 2%. Treasuries traded lower as most commodities and indices were higher on the session. Continue to monitor the flow of money to see if this is a one day event or the start of a new trend. As of this post 10-yr notes have violated their 20 day MA and 30-yr bonds are on that line which has served as a pivot point for several weeks...trade accordingly.

Continue to buy dips in corn and wheat...just do not get too overly bullish because we have a quarterly grain stocks report on Friday and do not rule out games from the USDA playing with the numbers. If and when live cattle come down to fill the gap from yesterday's open look to gain bullish exposure in 2012 contracts and exit all remaining shorts in 2011 contracts.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Active Trading

With a bit of leverage and wild swings traders have been forced to manage their trades more than ever .i.e. cutting losses and taking profits. The 100 day MA appears to be the pivot point in Crude oil; in the June contract that level is $100.55. We are cautiously optimistic and have bullish positions on with some clients thinking we can appreciate $3-5 more in the immediate future...trade accordingly. Natural gas picked up nearly 2% today... we have yet to establish longs but we likely wade long July futures tomorrow with stops below the recent lows with aggressive clients...stay tuned. Equities traded to their highest level in one week and appear poised for fresh highs... we will look to be a seller from higher levels in the S&P and NASDAQ with clients. As for currencies we would be selling bounces in the Yen and Swissie; our targets are 1.2150 and 1.1100 in June futures. Continue to scale into long in lean hogs and live cattle with stops below the recent lows. We anticipate both pigs and cows to make their way back to the 20 day MA; in the June contracts those levels are 97.25 and 113.25 respectively.

Gold and silver were higher for the third consecutive session as there is likely more upside on this leg. The next test in silver is if price action can lift prices back over the 50 day MA; in July at $39.05. We say yes and could see $41.50/ounce this week but we expect it to be two sided action. A trade above $1525 would likely lift gold back to $1550/ounce...trade accordingly. As a trade we would likely lighten up on longs if we saw that level in the next two sessions. Sugar was higher by nearly 4.5% nearly re-taking the 200 day MA. Some clients are long July and October expecting another 5% in the coming weeks. Sugar remains on our buy list and coffee on our sell list. Food for thought we feel coffee could drop 25% in the next two quarters so we will be building bearish positions for the coming weeks with clients that are wiling to stay with a trade that long. Old crop wheat, old crop soybean meal, new crop corn and new crop soybeans are what were advising clients to buy.

Tomorrow we will have the USDA supply/demand report so expect some fireworks overnight and on the open tomorrow. Finally our patience is paying off in bearish plays in the Treasury complex...via 10-yr note put options, short futures ad bearish plays in the Euro-dollar. If this week serves to be an interim top we would look to add to these positions for clients.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

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Month of Volatility

In my ten year career I can confidently say this is one of the most volatile months I've ever experienced in commodities...what will May bring? Crude oil traded above $114 in the June contract but closed below that level so although carrying bearish positions into the weekend is not our favorite play clients remain short looking for prices to roll over. Natural gas finished a at four month high advancing just over 2% today. We are on the sidelines with clients after taking a small hit on shorts getting stopped out yesterday.

The indices powered higher again today making it nearly 5% in the last two weeks. I cannot fight the trend but I will not be involved with clients until I can make more sense of the market. The dollar lost ground for the eighth consecutive session trading near three year lows. That resulted in a 3.4% loss but we feel a short squeeze in the greenback is imminent. We like fading rallies in the Aussie and Pound but have for several sessions for what it's worth. Live Cattle finished higher for the fourth consecutive session but we've yet to penetrate the 20 day MA. We've advised scaling into longs in either June or December contracts.

Gold outperformed silver today for a change gaining over 2% ad trading near $1570/ounce. Look for a blow off top soon as this trade is getting crowded. Silver finished out the week gaining 0.75% today but looking at the charts we're having trouble holding onto the recent gains. We advised aggressive clients to sell June $50 calls to play a potential pullback. Take profits on all cotton shorts as we expect a bounce. Aggressive traders can get short coffee at these elevated levels. Our target in the July contract is $2.75. On adverse weather and perhaps funds shifting into agriculture corn, wheat and soybeans are back in buy mode. We are suggesting clients to scale into July, September or December corn. Clients remain short 10-yr notes and Euro-dollars carrying a loss expecting prices to roll over in the coming weeks.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Day Trading: Risk Averse need not Apply

Traders are often lured to into the futures markets with a fascination for day trading. The thought of trading leveraged contracts without overnight risk is appealing to many, but underestimated by most. As a retail broker I have had the pleasure, and the pain, of watching day traders attempt to profit through strategies ranging from scalping to "position" intra-day trading which spans several hours. My observations have led me to the conclusion that day trading is perhaps one of the most difficult strategies to successfully employ. However, for those that have the perseverance to dedicate themselves to the practice, contain the natural ability to eliminate emotions and have enough experience under their belt day trading may also be one of the most potentially lucrative forms of market speculation.

The term day trading can be used to describe an unlimited number of strategies and approaches that involve buying and selling a contract in the same trading session. Many are system based, meaning that trading signals are executed according to specific technical set ups; others incorporate a trader's instinct along with the technical guidance. The approach that you take in the markets should be dependent on your personality and risk tolerances and not necessarily what has worked for somebody else. Let's face it; there are only about twenty to thirty commonly used oscillators if there were absolute magic to any of them more people would have discovered the holy grail. Rather than expecting an indicator or an oscillator to do the work for you, I believe it to be more productive that you properly educate yourself to the risks and the rewards of the markets as well as some of the less technical, and thus less talked about, aspects of day trading.

Day Trading is Mental

I believe that becoming a successful day trader comes down to instinct and the ability to control emotion. If you have ever been involved in athletics, you have probably heard the adage that performance is 95% mental and only 5% physical. I have found this to be true in trading as well, although instead of being physical trading is technical. Quite simply, it isn't which oscillators or indicators that you use, it is how you use them and perhaps more importantly how you deal with fear and greed as you are charting your trades. Here are a few day trading tips that may aid in the mental preparation of day trading.

Know the "Vol" and Accept the Consequences

You often hear traders talk about their need for volatility. It is a common perception among the trading community that higher volatility is equivalent to higher opportunity and therefore profit potential. Call me a "girl", but I happen to be a contrarian when it comes to this point of view. Sure, if the markets are moving there is an increased chance for you to catch a large move and make history in your trading account. However, there is another side to the story; let's not forget that if the market goes against your position you could be put in an agonizing position. Also, if you are a trader that insists on using stop orders, increased levels of volatility translates into amplified odds of being stopped out prematurely.

I am not suggesting that you avoid markets during times of explosive trade; however, you must fully understand the consequences and be willing to accept the risk accordingly.

In my opinion, the most convenient way of measuring volatility is through the use of Bollinger Bands. The bands allow a trader to visualize the explosion and contraction of volatility with similar movements in the bands. Simply put, as the bands get wider the volatility and market risk is also on the rise. Conversely, tighter bands suggest relatively lower levels of volatility. Please note that I didn't say lower levels of risk; this was intentional.
cg_daily_DJIA.gif Figure 1: Traders can visualize market volatility through the use of Bollinger Bands. It is a good idea to do so on a daily chart to get the big picture of market volatility.

Narrow bands indicate that market volatility is relatively low, but if the contraction is excessive enough it may signal an extraordinary spike in price is imminent. Markets go through times of quiet trade but are often followed by large and sudden increases in instability. As you can imagine, being in the market at such times could be similar to winning the lottery or they could mean financial peril. Before executing a trade in a fast moving market, or one that is trading quietly, you must be aware and willing to accept the risk accordingly. Being conscious of all of the potential outcomes of your trade may prevent panic liquidation or the infamous deer in the headlights failure to act.

Trader's Tool Box

Technology has provided traders with an abundance of readily available information at their fingertips. Accordingly, I strongly believe that traders should properly understand and utilize the resources available to them. It doesn't make sense to pick a single indicator or oscillator and expect it to tell you the whole story; instead it should be viewed as a piece to the puzzle. With that said, it can often be counterproductive to bog yourself down with too much information or guidance; this is often referred to as analysis paralysis.

In my opinion, it is a good idea to pick three or four tools that fit your needs and personality. For example, if you are an aggressive trader with a high tolerance for risk you may opt for a quick oscillator such as the Fast Stochastics. If you are a slower paced individual, the MACD may better suit your needs as it is a much slower moving indication of trend reversals.

It is important to note that after you have entered a trade you shouldn't change the oscillator that you are watching simply because the original isn't telling you what you want to hear, or in this case see. This can be a tempting practice for traders that are caught in an adversely moving market and are in search of a reason to stay in the trade for fear of taking a loss.

Mental "Stop Loss"

As you are probably aware, a stop order (AKA stop loss) is an order requesting to be filled at the market should the named price be hit. A trader long a futures contract may place and stop order below the futures price to mitigate the risk of an adverse price move. Likewise a trader holding a short futures position may place a buy stop above the current market price as a risk management tool against a possible rally. Once executed, the trader would be flat the market at or near the named price.

Most traders or trading mentors will tell you that you should always use stops; I am not most. I argue that experienced and disciplined traders may be better off without the use of live stop orders and believe that mental stops may be a better alternative. Supporting my assumption is the theory that the dollar amount of the risk on any given trade is conceivably higher through the use of mental stops as opposed to actual working stop orders but the risk in the long rung may be less through the reduction of untimely exits.

The concept of a mental stop is simply picking out a price level at which it is fair to say that your position may have been an incorrect speculation and manually exiting the market once your pre determined price is hit. Using mental stops as opposed to placing an actual stop loss order may prevent the natural ebb and flow of the market from stopping you out at what ultimately becomes premature.

I am sure that you have all fallen victim to the stop order that was triggered to exit your trade only moments before the market reversed course and left you behind. Not only is this a frustrating place to be, but it often has an adverse impact on trading psychology going forward. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be uncommon for inexperienced traders to behave somewhat recklessly in an attempt to get their money back from the very market that took it from them. It is easy to give in to this mentality, but doing so will almost always end negatively.

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Avoiding Margin Calls

The floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, a maj...

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MB Wealth Corp. is not responsible and does not endorse anything outside of the content of this article authored by Matthew Bradbard; President of MB Wealth.

In the current Wild West trading environment, where 5% price swings have become commonplace, avoiding margin calls is a bigger challenge now than what I've ever seen in my career. Traders can take all the necessary steps and still there is still no assurance that a margin call can be avoided, here are some suggestions that may aid in deterring future margin calls when trading commodities.

Let me start by explaining exactly what a margin call is; a call from a clearinghouse to a clearing member, or from a broker or firm to a customer, to bring margin deposits up to a required minimum level. When the balance of the account drops below the maintenance margin level a margin call is issued. Once a margin call is issued the party receiving the call generally has 48-72 hours to bring their account balance back above the initial maintenance amount. If you wish not to satisfy the margin call the alternative is liquidating the position and taking the loss.

Moving onto margin; the amount of money deposited by both buyers and sellers of futures contracts and by sellers of options contracts to ensure performance of the terms of the contract. The margin in commodities is not a down payment, as in securities, but rather a performance bond. For every commodity there is an initial margin and a maintenance margin determined by the exchange that the underlying commodity trades on. For example, when trading 30-yr bond futures, margins are set by the CME Group, while when trading cotton futures margins are set by ICE.

The leverage involved when trading commodities can at times be massive; by definition leverage is the ability to control large dollar amounts of a commodity with a comparatively small amount of capital. Leverage is a double-edged sword working as your best friend when properly positioned and your worst enemy when positioned incorrectly. Because the leverage at times can appear excessive, a possible solution would be to not over leverage one's trading account. For example if the initial margin amount for one Crude oil futures contract is $5,000 then in your mind you should allocate $10,000 to mitigate extreme swings in you trading account. When trading commodities be selective and don't think that all the money in your trading account needs to be allocated at all times. I try to trade a very aggressive asset class conservatively...which is easier said then done.

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Option Queen Letter

Here is a question for you to ponder, if the banks are public enemy number 1, why is it that we the people have been funding their fun? Are we the people making money on the spread or a piece of the spread on lending that the banks are making and if not, why not? Remember, we the people helped them out of their financial crisis so; we the people should enjoy some of the prosperity that these banks are enjoying. Here is a quote from THINK GREECE, IT'S FRIDAY by Michael Santoli, Barron's Magazine May 17, 2010. "Goldman Sachs (GS), JP MORGAN Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) - disclosed in filings that their trading operations were profitable each and every day in the first quarter." After all, how many of us could say that we made money every day on our investments? Where is our dividend or piece of the American pie?

Here is a fact that every investor must understand. Your computer is slower than the big computers you are trading against. You cannot be faster at scalping than they are so, you answer must be to develop a trading plan and a strategy. We are not saying buy and hold, but rather know where you want to buy and where to take profits or where to sell and where to cover. Would you walk across the street without looking to see if traffic is approaching so why buy without understanding or, at the very least looking at the chart to make sure you are pricing your long or short appropriately.

Which markets have too much agreement to one side of the trade? There are several that jump out of the pages when you look; one is the US Dollar index. There are simply too many US Dollar bulls in the market. Can this continue? Well of course it can and likely will, but there will come a time when, the US Dollar will have enough of a drop to scare the weak handed bulls out of the trade. The same trade goes for gold, which is acting more like a currency and fear trade than an inflation hedge. Crude oil and the Euro have too many bears and will have the opposite problem. No, we are not telling you to buy crude oil and Euros but we are telling you that these trades are lopsided and will likely reverse.

Tuesday: April housing starts are released at 8:30 and April PPI is released a t8:30.
Wednesday: April CPI is released at 8:30 and the minutes of the FOMC two day meeting are released at 2:00.
Thursday: April leading indicator index is released at 10:00 and the May Philly Survey is released at 10:00.

The US Dollar index has been on an upside tear in recent days. We have a 9-count on the chart and signs of exhaustion. The problem with this is that the market can and likely will continue on its upside blow off for a while longer. Seriously, with the euro under fire, the Greek debt crisis not yet resolved and the other problems waiting in the wings, there seems to be good reason to either buy gold or the US Dollar. That said, we noticed that the boat is getting lopsided and there are far too many euro bears crowding the side of the boat. When too many agree, it may be time not to agree. That doesn't mean jumping on the opposite side but rather removing your short position on the euro. The 5-day moving average is at 85.097. The top of the Bollinger band is at 86.324 and the lower edge is seen at 79.927. Although we are overbought as measured by all the indicators that we follow herein, all indicators remain on a buy. Naturally, we are above the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily, weekly and monthly time-frames. We are overbought on the weekly time-frame and heading there on the monthly time-frame. The next targets are 87.22, 87.84, 89.47 and 89.71.

The S&P 500 futures contract retreated in the Friday session broadcasting the markets fear of something bad happening over the weekend when a trade could not be made. Naturally, we should see a relief in the Monday session. The downtrend line is at 1178.48 and we must close above that level to resume the bullish view of this market. Not one of the indicators that we follow herein is issuing a buy-signal. The stochastic indicator, the RSI and our own indicator are all issuing a sell-signal. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is going flat at overbought levels. We closed inside the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily time-frame; we are above the clouds for the weekly time-frame and are below the clouds for the monthly time-frame. We are entering an options expiration week, which could bring with it increased volatility. It will be important for the S&P 500 to remain above 1125 or risk a return trip to the 1100 area.

The NASDAQ 100 retreated in the Friday session but fell more than the S&P 500 did. The NASDAQ 100 must stay above 1887.40. We closed inside the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily time-frame. We are above the clouds for the weekly time-frame and just at the lip of the clouds for the monthly time-frame. The 5-day moving average is at 1940.90. The top of the Bollinger band is at 2093.97 and the lower edge is seen at 1870.84. The stochastic indicator, the RSI and our own indicator are all issuing a sell-signal. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is going flat at over bought levels. It really looks as though this index has some work to do rebuilding confidence. The downtrend line is at 1991.27. The weekly chart does not look as awful as the daily chart does. We closed up on the week but we have signs of exhaustion. The indicators are curling to the upside and will likely issue a buy-signal by the end of the week.

The Russell 2000 declined in the Friday session. The 5-day moving average is at 699.90. The top of the Bollinger band is at 755.32 and the lower edge is seen at 666.24. The stochastic indicator, the RSI and our own indicator all are issuing a sell-signal on the daily chart. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator continues to issue a buy-signal at overbought levels. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for the daily and the weekly time-frames. The market must stay above 685 or risk a return to 678, 670 and 667. If we don't remove 703 in short order, we could be setting ourselves up for another spill. Time will tell on this one.

Crude oil has been declining with the continued fear of an economic slowdown re-emerging as caused by the austerity programs needed to resolve some of the euro-worries. This is further amplified by the worries that the Asian communities are trying to slow down their growth to a manageable number. All of this is weighing on the crude oil market. Actually, until or unless we break much below 69 +/- there should be no worries about crude oil. We are just in a pronounced trading range. Of course should be break below 69, we will move out of that trading range and could be in a wilder ride. The daily chart is below the Ichimoku clouds. We are above the clouds on the weekly time-frame but in the clouds for the monthly time frame. We are oversold on the daily and weekly time-frames. We do not see even a bend in the indicators that would lead us to believe that we are at a bottom. We are grossly oversold. The 5-day moving average is at 74.96. The top of the Bollinger band is at 89.41 and the lower edge is seen at 72.03. We closed below the lower band and likely will not be able to stay there for very long. This should be an interesting week for crude oil.

It would appear that everybody loves gold. When this occurs, we get somewhat uncomfortable about our long gold stance. This could be a good time to remove some of the profitable positions in gold. The 5-day moving average is at 1224.24. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1180.49 and the lower edge is seen at 1116.88. All the indicators that we follow herein are issuing a sell-signal. We certainly would not go short this market but would consider removing some profits. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds on the all time-frames. If we trade above 1250, this market will have no resistance overhead and will likely cause the shorts to cover and the market to whoosh to the upside. After the initial piling into the trade, the market will likely return to the breakout level allowing the more conservative investor a chance to enter this market.

Option Queen Letter

Are we all having fun yet? Don't you just love the volatility? As an option seller, we do. If you are a call writer this environment is your dream. As a put sell, you have to love those premiums.

Fat finger......we don't think so. Most systems will not let you enter orders in the billions without a second review like to say "is this what you really want to do?" Good excuse... but it's only slightly better than "my dog ate my homework" in its credibility. Part of the reason for the free fall in the Thursday session can be attributed to mob mentality. The original stops placed in the markets caused, upon their election, a whoosh to the downside but then computers, or quants, noticing the downdraft piled into the trade accelerating the downdraft further. This was further complicated by NYSE stocks that were electronically halted compelling the market makers on the NYSE floor into action to make an orderly market, a slower market but orderly nonetheless. This caused some of the electronic sellers, looking for an exit, to abandon their NYSE platform and place those exit trades on the NASDAQ which, took full advantage of the situation and accommodated the trades.

A major problem causing this market meltdown is the extinction of trading floors, where some of this craziness was controlled. Machines just trade because of triggers, people actually think. True we can teach machines to think but they have difficulty reversing and adjusting as fast as the human can. The swings on Thursday are proof of this. The computers sold bought sold and when it was all over, a plunge of nearly 1000 points was reversed and the market gained back about 600 points by the end of the session. We need to obliterate trading halts or have all exchanges, including NASDAQ respect the same trading halts. On another front this Thursday accident speaks volumes to the value of the trading pit and the exchange floor market makers. When standing in the pit, you know who is selling and you know who is buying. True there are shenanigans always but they are a small price to pay for true price discovery and a true auction market. Electronics certainly have their place but to the credit of the people in the ring and on the floor that trade and fill our orders, the execution might be a tad slower but the results will be less chaotic. We have been both an electronic trader and pit trader. Both work well together but not to the exclusion of the other. Both should have the same rules of the road. We know that many who bought the Thursday low of the market had their fills canceled. This is another question which needs to be sorted out. If we cancel trades in this manor why would buyers step in? Wouldn't they be afraid of a subsequent cancellation and thus not provide the bid that the market needs to stabilize. If we remove those bids, where would the market stop if it would stop before a limit trading halt would be enforced? These are good questions and ones that need to be answered. The answer is a level playing field with uniform rules for all, not just for NYSE or whatever exchange has made a rule but for all exchanges.

We are sure that you would like to know where the market is going to go next week. Monday's have been up days in the market because the world survived the weekend and nothing major happened to cause the markets to blow up. That said, a relief rally appears and the all clear signal is sounded. This week, we don't expect to see a repeat of last week's craziness. We do expect to see a rally to at least 1117.03 and more probably 1136.12. The markets will remain nervous and the monthly expiration of options will add some increased concern. That said, we expect to see calmer waters in a sea of manic behavior.

Monday: the Bank of England releases its interest rate decision.
Tuesday: March wholesale inventories are released at 10:00.
Wednesday: March international trade is released at 8:30.
Friday: options expire at the end of the day, April retail sales are released at 8:30, April industrial production / capacity utilization are released at 9:15, May Michigan sentiment is released at 9:45 - 10:00 and March business inventories are released.

The US Dollar index retreated in the Friday session removing some of the excesses seen in the Thursday session leaving an inside day on the chart with signs of exhaustion. We are grossly overbought as measured by the stochastic indicator, the RSI and our own indicator. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is flat and slightly above neutral levels. The chart shows that the US Dollar index is forming a pole, the question is will the pole resolve into a bear or bull flag, or perhaps a pennant. In other words, the future direction is not clear from the recent trades. We would expect to see the US Dollar retreat in the coming sessions. A return to 82.87 and the uptrend line at 82.380 is likely. The 5-day moving average is at 83.945. The top of the Bollinger band is at 84.691 and the lower edge is seen at 79.325. During this past week we saw the US Dollar index trade above the upper Bollinger band for four of the five trading days. Friday, the index closed just below the upper Bollinger band. We are above the Ichimoku Clouds for all time frames. Euro fear is a wonderful thing for the US Dollar bulls. Remember as the dollar rallies, dollar based commodities will decline, making commodities more expensive for importers. Likely this will all smooth out. We have gotten used to seeing these sorts of extremes. This time is not different just the location is different.

The S&P 500 futures retreated this past week. The Thursday hysteria neared the February low of 1040.75 and came within a cat's whisker of electing the circuit breaker trading halt. The Thursday low was 1056. The action in the Friday session was far more subdued than the Thursday session and left a resulting inside day on the chart. We are oversold by all the indications and measures that we follow, yet we are getting mixed signals. Our own indicator is curling to the upside and could, in the next session, issue a buy-signal. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is flat at the oversold line, the stochastic indicator is curling over and could issue another sell signal at slightly above oversold levels. We expect to see the S&P 500 futures trade to the 1117.03, 1136.12 and possibly 1155.21 levels. Things are not going to return to the upside until some of this fear is worked off. We below the Ichimuko clouds for the daily and the monthly time-frames and remain above the clouds for the weekly time-frame. The 5-day moving average is at 1152.90. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1241.05 and the lower edge is seen at 1132.81. This should be a very interesting week.

The NASDAQ 100 retreated in the Friday session with a lot less volatility than seen in the Thursday session leaving an inside day on the chart. The indicators that we watch are giving us the same signals as that seen in the S&P 500 futures contract. The signals are mixed some showing that we will likely rally and some saying that we will not. It is our opinion that we will try to stabilize this week and we will likely rally into options expiration. Resistance will be found at 1855.39, 1894.12 and at 1932.85. The 5-day moving average is at 1937.90. The top of the Bollinger band is at 2101.37 and the lower edge is seen at 1899.47. We are inside the Ichimuko clouds for the daily and the monthly time-frames but are above the clouds for the weekly time-frame. When market suffers the damage seen this past week, they need to take some time to repair themselves. Thus most rallies will be met with seller and most retreats with buyers, but the buyers will be willing to take only limited risk on their trades. Thus we should see the S&P outperform the Russell 2000 as risk is removed from the market. We expect to see stabilization return to these markets in the coming week. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

The Russell 2000 continued to slide in the Friday session. We continue to see mixed signals as generated by the indicators. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is trying to turn to the upside. We are getting a sell-signal from the stochastic indicator and our own indicator looks as though it might issue a buy-signal tomorrow or perhaps on Tuesday. The RSI continues to point lower. There is resistance at 763.23, 689.90 and at 700.56. Still we believe that if the market is going to take a less risky approach to the market, this index will underperform the rest of the market that is until the all clear signal is sounded. The 5-day moving average is at 691.92. The top of the Bollinger band is at 756.34 and the lower edge is seen at 671.63. The waterfall spill that occurred last week paints a picture of panic. When cooler heads prevail, the market will likely adjust its downdraft to a less sever waterfall pattern. We closed inside the Ichimuko clouds on the daily chart and above the clouds for the weekly chart. Both the weekly and the monthly charts are overbought and continue to issue a sell-signal.

Crude oil closed below the Ichimuko clouds in the Friday session leaving a large red candle on the chart. Crude oil has been down four out of the five trading days this past week. As to the indicators, crude oil is grossly oversold but shows no signs of reversal. Much of crude oils recent problem stems from the strength in the US Dollar. Some of the concern about the fragile global economies is bleeding into the crude oil market which is dependent on a certain amount of growth to continue its upward movement. There is also some concern about a possible slowdown in the expansion seen in China. The 5 day moving average is at 80.224. The top of the Bollinger band is at88.75 and the lower edge is seen at 77.52. We closed below the lower edge of the Bollinger and will likely move back inside the band.

Gold seems to have an evening star at on its daily chart. Gold is grossly overbought and continues to point to higher levels. The 5-day moving average is at1187.04. The top of the Bollinger band is at 1201.6 and the lower edge is seen at 1124.20. Although we have been somewhat of a gold bug for a while, we believe that gold has gone a bit further than it should have and will likely retreat in the coming week. We continue to buy gold on reasonable dips.

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