Bloomberg News –
President Bush has widened his lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in online futures markets.
67 percent: Bush’s chance of winning, based on bids on futures contracts on the Dublin-based Intrade Exchange, www.intrade.com. That’s up from 49 percent on Aug. 13 but down from 70 percent Monday.
What does it mean? It means that people can put down $6.70 on Bush and collect $10 if he wins, before commissions. They can also buy Kerry futures, which were trading at 32.8 Thursday.
Does it matter? Studies show that political betting on financial markets outperforms polling as an elections predictor.
Source: Star Telegram