Weekly currency commentary

This week should be a big week for currencies. Either the Dollar is going to break out above 90.00 or it is going to fail. Either way it will send ripples through the rest of the currencies. Personally I am still a Dollar bear so I expect if to fail. But as always I am using stop and reverse orders so I am not “married” to my position.

Euro: The Euro continues to struggle. 1.2000 did not hold 1.1866 is the last line of support before we break to new lows for the year. I continue to get long the closer we get to 1.1900 with stop and reverse orders in around 1.1850.
US Dollar: The US Dollar continues to trade in a narrow range between 89 – 90. There is strong resistance at the 90.30 level and I would expect that to hold this week.
Swissy: Even in the face of a strong Dollar the Swissy has managed to nudge itself higher. I would not be surprised by a pullback this week before breaking out to new highs above 131.00.
Pound Sterling: So far support at 175.00 is holding. A test of support at the 173.00 level is possible and I expect that if that is tested it will hold. Getting long down here with stops below 173.00 should do well.
Yen: The Yen looks like it is trying to break out above 114.00. I was short and have now been stopped and reversed my position to long from 114.06 with a new stop at 113.40.
Derek Frey
Odom & Frey Futures & Options

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