We have reached a critical point in this pair. We are less than 100 pips from an all time new high. Near term we are not expecting follow through to the upside. We expect to see a long wick on the candlestick charts early this week followed by a correction back to 1.3300 or lower. Stops on shorts need to be placed above 1.3666 as that is the all time high. This market has been on an upward trend with no real correction for over 11 weeks, which makes this market very ripe for a pullback. Longer term we remain bullish and expect this pair to test 1.40 later in the year but near term we are seeing many signs of an overbought market.
The cable has now traded above the Jan. 2007 highs but is already off of today’s highs but here we do not see immediate follow through. Short trades with stops above the highs of the day are the best bet in the short term.
This pair is still strong despite dollar weakness almost everywhere else. We expect the dollar to stage a bounce here in the coming days and that should continue to push this pair up to about 120.
This pair is weakening and this week we see this pair moving below 1.21 and then testing 1.2030. If the dollar does bounce as we expect then this pair could rally back above 1.22. Overall the range is quite tight and we feel there are better trading opportunities in other pairs this week.
This pair is a text book example of the trend is your friend. Remember, Currencies tend to trend more than almost any other market and the daily chart of this pair clearly shows that. Be on the look out got a doji on the daily chart as that will signify a temporary top once it is made but again do not stand in front of a runaway train. Trade with the trend until you see the doji or shooting star.
This trend is also textbook. We are beginning to approach some support levels between 1.13 and 1.12 so real in your stops and be ready for a bounce. Her too you will be looking for a doji or a hammer to signify the reversal, but until you see that bar do not stand in the way of this train either.
by Derek Frey
Odom & Frey
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