Coffee has been building a macro bull flag on the monthly charts for the last few years now. We are nearing the apex of this long term consolidating wedge which is often the time that a market breaks out. At the same time we just saw a very violent shake out last which also often happens just before a breakout. That shake out also bounced off of an ascending trend line going back to May of this year. Add all these things together and you get what could be the beginning of the next big move up in coffee. Hurricane Dean…
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Trade Recommendation
Buy a December 2007 Coffee 125 call while selling a Dec. ’07 Coffee 135 call for approximately 1.50 points ($562.50) to open a position.
Profit Goal:
Or profit goal is to catch a move above 135 on the Dec. futures contract. Break even point is 126.50 assuming a 1.50 point fill. 100% gross profit would be realized at expiration if the market is at 128.00.
Risk Analysis:
Max risk, before commissions and fees, and assuming the above mentioned fill would be $562.50. The full premium paid for the spread is lost at expiration if the market expires below 125.
by Derek Frey
Odom & Frey
www.odomandfrey.com
Call us at 1-866-636-6378