March corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have suffered serious near-term technical damage the past two weeks. The damage began with a limit-down (30 cents) price move on January 12. The following day, price action produced a rare gap down on the daily bar chart as prices fell to a fresh three-month low. Price action in March corn futures then saw a pause–sideways and quieter trading–as traders caught their breath following the strong downside price pressure. Pauses after a big price move generally are followed by a price move in the same direction as the bigger price move.
March corn this week has fallen to a fresh 3.5-month low of $3.60 1/4 a bushel. The next downside technical objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid chart support at $3.50 a bushel. It would take a close in March corn futures back above strong chart resistance at the $3.73 level to begin to provide the bulls with some fresh upside technical momentum that would then hint a near-term market low is in place. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff