The Treasury market enjoyed a mild bid throughout the session as the technical environment seemed to put a temporary floor under pricing. Also, month/quarter/week end buying seems to be helping the cause.
All in all it was a relatively uneventful news day. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was reported to be a little better than expected, but the final revision to the fourth quarter GDP was a little worse.
There is some concern that the expiration of the government’s MBS purchase program will have a negative impact on Treasuries (higher rates), but not everybody thinks so. Fed member Charles Plosser, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal, “Given the market functioning, I don’t anticipate that selling MBS at a reasonable pace is going to have a tremendous impact on Mortgage rates” He also mentioned that rumors of a hike at the discount window were premature.
We can’t rule out another probe at the lows, or moderately new lows but we like the upside from here (temporarily at least). We see support in the 30 year in the mid-114’s and resistance near 116’26.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
Flat
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
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Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.