SUMMARY OF UPCOMING DATA 03/04/10
8:30 AM US WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS (475 K)
8:30 AM NON FARM PRODUCT (6.3%), ULC (-4.5%)
10:00 AM US FACTORY ORDERS 2.0%
10:00 AM US PEND HME SALES
10:30 AM EIA NAT GAS INVENTORY
11:00 AM US 3, 10, 30 YR BOND ANNOUCEMENTS
DATA RESULTS 03/03/10
ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT (-20 K)
ISM NON MANUFACTURING SURVEY (53.0/51.0)
EIA INVENTORY (CRUDE OIL) 4.1 M
US DEBT REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
US Treasuries meandered through another session without any firm commitment of direction. A retest of support after the release of data showing the US service sector grew to the highest level in nearly three years failed to maintain downward momentum as underlying concerns regarding the US employment situation remain in place. The ADP report showed a loss of 20000 jobs in the private sector, with losses contained in small and large companies. Mid sized firms actually created jobs.
Again the long end of the yield curve was the worst performer in Wednesday’s session, while 2 through 10 year debt remained stable or posted small gains. In addition to awaiting data on employment, the Treasury complex will also have to contend with renewed focus on supply. On Thursday, the Treasury will announce the amount of US 3, 10, and 30 year debt coming to auction markets next week. The last round was relatively well received despite the record amount coming to auction, though foreign buyers remained sidelined. With the pullback in the US Dollar and a strategy to contend with the fiscal crisis in Greece, it will be a telling sign if foreign debt buyers return to purchasing mode or if the aftermath will extend concerns to sovereign debt backed by “questionable” balance sheets.
Technically, June 30 years remain range bound, though a possible formation of lower lows could result in the markets trending lower in line with the possible head & shoulders forming in the daily charts. Support for the contract remains at 116-24, while resistance sets up at 117-28.
US EQUITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
S&P Futures tested a key resistance level on Thursday, spurred on by a jump in the ISM Service Index. The reading of 53.0 (expected 51.0) posted the best reading since 2007 and managed to over shadow the ADP employment figures ( or at least relegate them to a glass half full/half empty scenario). Stocks fell by the latest session, as a broad based pullback led by health care prompted most traders to square up long positions ahead of uncertain reactions to the employment figures due on Friday. Additional uncertainty regarding the success and the longer term implications of the fiscal crisis in Greece and its influence on government influence in the economy and deficit spending may also help technical resistance levels in equities hold.
Technically, March S&P futures held below resistance at 1126.00. Possible volatility at these levels may allow for brief push through to 1128.00 as positive market sentiment may have some remaining influence before long position correction. Support sets up at 1110.50.
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
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Whitehall Investment Management Futures Market Summary
SUMMARY OF UPCOMING DATA 03/04/10
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