News of a “confirmed” contingency plan for Greece seems to have fixed income products on a global basis on the rise. Apparently, it seems as though default risk which was previously seen as minimal is now non-existent. Accordingly, even historically low yields appear attractive to some. Also, there is some chatter of skepticism in the Treasury arena in regards to the finality of the bailout agreement.
This week is “auction free” and that leaves economic data and corporate earnings data as the market leaders. The calendar is packed; on Wednesday alone we will hear about consumer price pressures, retail sales, the Fed Beige Book.
The day’s rally was stopped dead in its tracks near the pivot areas of 116’10ish in both bonds and notes. This leaves the market technically neutral and makes speculation tough from such levels but despite the chart, this market feels like it wants to go higher. We prefer to patiently way for better prices to be long…if it turns out that we missed the boat on the upside, we like being bears closer to 119 in the 30 year and 118 in the 10 year. After all, we are in a seasonally weak time of year for Treasuries.
In the meantime, if the bears come back to bonds and notes support should be found in the June 30-year bond near 113’20 and in the note at 114’24. If these areas are seen again in the near-term we will likely be bulls.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
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Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
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Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.DeCarleyTrading.com
http://www.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.com
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
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