Does any one really believe Goldman Sachs does not move the markets?
Oil is approaching the same level it bounced from twice in the last week, will this hold true again? The action is too dicey for us to issue trade recommendations as we are seeing $2-3 swings on a daily basis. We like being having exposure to the upside but with the Goldman turmoil and FOMC on the horizon it may be prudent to wait 24-48 hours. If at a profit in the distillates move to the sidelines. Inside day in natural gas as a decision should be made in the next 2 sessions on where from here. We favor long exposure but in case we are wrong make sure stops are in place on long futures. As for options we are suggesting call spreads in July-September. Contact us for more specifics.
Indices are off 2% or thereabouts and the settlement below the 20 day MA’s we hinted at yesterday could come very soon; pay attention to the next few days settlements. That level in the S&P is at 1191, the Dow at 10980, and the NASDAQ at 2001. We advised clients to take their July OJ off today at about even today. On a setback we would look to re-position longs. Clients that did not move on coffee yesterday got a slightly better price on their September call spreads today as prices were off 1.35% today. We are still anticipating a bounce in the coming weeks.
Treasuries were higher today trading thru last weeks highs; stops should have been triggered and you should have been taken out of your shorts at a small loss depending on your fill. We like the idea of selling rallies but we advise to wait for tomorrows FOMC decision and more importantly verbiage. Leave your spreads on in corn until you think July has bottomed and then exit your July shorts and stay in the December longs. This spread lost $88 today. Hopefully followers listed to our advice and exited their soybeans and soybean meal; soybeans lost 1.60% today and soy meal 2.50%.
We had to pay a bit more on the August lean hog spreads today; clients paid$460/per today. We have a target of $800 plus. Talk about divergence gold was up by 1.40% and silver down by .90%. I do not trust the move but a settlement above $1172 could be a breakout so clients may reluctantly get long with tight stops…stay tuned.
If July silver trades below the 20 day MA at $18.08 we should get the break we’ve been looking for. Copper was lower by nearly 18 cents or 5%…that’s right! The Loonie and Pound were big losers today, our targets are getting close in the Pound and were hit in the Loonie. See yesterday’s post. If the trend line gives way at .9800 in the Loonie we could get another 1-1.50 cents.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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