Risk trade….ON!

The financial markets have been nothing short of a high speed roller coaster with light volume, earnings season and macro economic uncertainty as the culprits. Yesterday, investors staggered out of equities and allocated money into bonds and notes but today was the polar opposite.
Today’s data was weak, but not enough to encourage more buying. Initial jobless claims were up last week and existing home sales were down last month. However, home sales projections were expected to be lower due to the expiration of the government tax credit.
Bernanke underwent a question and answer session before the House and managed to nearly retract most of the pessimism spewed yesterday. This helped to promote the intraday trend of lower Treasuries and higher stocks.
The Treasury announced its upcoming auction figures and the size of the offering seems to be slightly shrinking. They will sell $25 billion in 1-year notes, $38 billion in 2-year notes, $37 billion in 5-year notes and $29 billion in 7 year-notes. This keeps supply concerns as an afterthought.
Was that the spike high we were looking for? It could have been. Our original expectations were for a bit over 129 but later revised it to the mid-129 to 130 range. Yesterday’s trade fit the pattern and may indicate the near term highs are in. That said, picking an exact top is tricky and there seems to be some risk of another spike to 130ish…so be careful not to chase the market lower; you could get chopped!
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

july 22 bond
july 22 note
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
Local : 702-947-0701
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.


One Response to Risk trade….ON!

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