August Comex gold futures on Monday hit another new all-time record high of $1,604.50 an ounce, as of this writing. Since scoring a fresh six-week low of $1,478.30 on July 1, gold futures prices have rallied by more than $120.00 an ounce. The main bullish fundamental inputs for safe-haven gold have been the ongoing European Union sovereign debt crisis, and most recently heightened concerns the U.S. debt problem is not going to be effectively dealt with by the U.S. government. From a technical perspective the gold market remains longer-term bullish and the bulls have recently regained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
There are no early technical clues to suggest a market top is in place for gold, and at present the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher until near-term technicals suggest otherwise. The fact that prices Monday pushed above what was psychological resistance at $1,600.00 an ounce suggests more price gains in the near term. Longer-term charts show that Comex gold futures prices are in a 10-year-old uptrend, from the 2001 low of $255.00 an ounce. Gold bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at $1,625.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June high of $1,559.30. First resistance is seen at the overnight record high of $1,610.00 and then at $1,615.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,591.40 and then at $1,580.00. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff