The pause in stocks and commodities today appears to me like they are just catching a breath before their coming leg higher. Today’s’ inventory report was far from bullish but Crude held onto gains trading intra-day above $88/barrel for the first time in two weeks. We maintain our bullish stance thinking prices will make their way to $93/94 in the coming weeks…trade accordingly. That does not mean we will not see violent $3-4 corrections but on a closing basis we expect the 9 day MA to support; in September at $84.85. Natural gas is back and forth in a 30 cent trading range and at today’s close prices are near the bottom of that range…we have suggested long exposure thinking a trade above $4.50 in the coming months.
We feel gold is still too frothy and we have advised clients to restrain from purchases until we get a break. We are not bearish we just choose not be bullish…there is a BIG difference. With a settlement above $40/ounce we’ve advised some aggressive clients to gain bullish exposure in December silver. We opted to go with 1:2 December ratio spreads to potentially capitalize on a move to $42/42.50 in the coming weeks…trade accordingly. Book a profit on any remaining shorts in the Swissie and as for the Loonie we remain long with most clients but without a higher trade in stocks in the next few sessions we may advise clients to move to the sidelines…stay tuned.
Cotton traded up limit most of the day closing higher by just shy of 4%. We advised clients to book profits on their longs. On a 2.5-4% depreciation we would likely look to re-establish bullish exposure…trade accordingly. Some clients remain long OJ as prices have advanced for five sessions now. We anticipate another 5% appreciation from current levels. Now that we are out of most of our cotton with clients we will be looking to buy a dip in either December 2011 or March 2012 cocoa…look for trade ideas in the coming sessions. Soybeans and soybean oil are still looking like we could see higher ground with a 1.25% appreciation in both products today.
Corn has faltered after making a contract high today closing in the red albeit marginally. The real red flag to me is listening to the radio on the way to work there was talk of corn prices moving higher and then on the front page of the WSJ today an article on corn. Maize has likely hit an interim top as the media rarely gets it right on when to allocate to certain commodities. We have a small bearish trade on with clients expecting a trade 4-6% lower. Live cattle and lean hogs rolled over today…we will be looking to fade rallies as we anticipate both trade lower . We see another 3% from current levels in both pigs and cows.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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