Preparing for Jackson Hole

If in a profit or at a loss and not 100% committed to trades we opted to take profits and losses for clients today and raise some cash as we except fireworks as a consequence of the Jackson hole outing. Crude advanced 2% today closing higher for the third consecutive session back above the 9 day MA. Consecutive settlement above that level; at $85.55 should confirm a bottom is in and we proceed north from here. We are suggesting moderately bullish exposure and have a near term target of $92/93 on the October contract. Both RBOB and heating oil are on the verge of breaking above previous resistance as well. As of this post natural gas is higher by 2.5% forming a bullish engulfing candle in today’s session. We maintain our buy mentality under $4 thinking we could see $4.25 and eventually $4.50 in the coming weeks.
Stocks are on the move higher as we anticipated with the S&P gaining 3.25% and the Dow 2.75% as of this post. We expect a trade up to last week’s highs in fairly quick order. That would be approximately an additional 50 points in the S&P and 350 points in the Dow…trade accordingly. As of this post gold if lower by 3.3% and nearly $90/ounce from its highs overnight. This could be the start of the correction we’ve been calling for. From here retracement levels to consider in the December gold futures: $1740, 1690, 1645. We have been trading put options for aggressive clients trying to position for this move…in reality we are likely 1/3 – 1/2 way complete on the correction we’ve been looking for…trade accordingly. Silver gave up 3.4% and if the bears were to take contract even temporarily expect a sharp trade back under $39/ounce. Clients are slightly under water on their Loonie longs and Yen shorts but stay the course for now. Our targets in the September futures are 1.0250 and 1.2800 respectively.
OJ got hit a little today losing 1.5%…clients remain long. They will likely miss the cocoa trade as the move is happening we forecast but we failed to act as we were in cotton and OJ at the time we got a buy signal. Coffee shorts remain on our radar but we’ve yet to make a move…stay tuned. Both the long end and short end appear to be rolling over as traders could be short Euro-dollars, 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr, 30-yr instruments. You get the point regardless of the duration technicals indicate a trade lower as long as a new high is not made. Agriculture is trading higher without our clients..we may have miscalculated the timing of a pullback but we do not wish to be long at these levels so we will be on the sidelines with clients until the markets come to us. We took a very small loss on lean hog longs for clients today as we did not like the action. After the dust settles next week we will re-explore positions in the livestock sector. Likely bullish positions in hogs and cattle but stay tuned as things may change.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.