At least in Vegas you get free drinks and maybe some comps…this market is a kin to gambling so be cautious. A $7 trading range in Crude oil today takes prices dangerously close to $75/barrel a level not seen in fifteen months. We still say we see $95 before $75 but we may end up with egg on our face as September futures got within 71 cents overnight. Aggressive clients have been buying this correction and it has been tough having any bullish conviction but keeping your position size small should prevent sleepless nights. Natural gas remains a screaming buy as we should see a 7-10% appreciation from current levels. Our suggestion remains long exposure in October via options and futures. A 100 point range in the S&P and 800 point range in the Dow…they say timing is everything. A bullish engulfing candle and key reversal on good volume should signal the start of the bounce were looking for in the indices. We expect 11700/11800 in the Dow and 1235/1245 in the S&P in coming weeks.
Gold is exhibiting signs of a top closing well off its highs in recent sessions. We have left numerous dollars on the table not be long with clients but we refuse to be long when the correction happens as they always do. Most clients are on the sidelines here but do not rule out a $100-150 correction any day now…trade accordingly. Silver trades lower again today trading below the 50 day MA for the first time in four weeks. We feel there could be further downside but have advised clients to book profits on their shorts and look to be a buyer near $35/ounce if given the opportunity.
The forex market is insane and unless you will be glued to a screen look elsewhere. We have advised clients to be long the Loonie and also used the 8% advance in the Swissie to get short today via bear put spreads. Do we think the run is over who knows? We’re just expecting a retracement as prices have advanced 20% in the last month with very little correction. In the softs sector lumber remains on our radar as a buyer…nothing else jumps out at me…stay tuned. A major short squeeze took place in Treasuries but still no signs of a top. Our clients Euro-dollar shorts are getting hit be we will stay the course for now. Corn and wheat finished higher today while soybeans finished lower…wouldn’t you know we’re long soybeans with some clients and on the sidelines in the others. We still like the trade and have exposure in November with a target of $13.60.
Clients were advised to book profits on their Lena hogs shorts and move to the sidelines in this entire complex; that means cattle and pigs.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.