Good-bye Stocks Hello Managed Futures

As of this post Crude oil is slightly lower trading just above $100/barrel. Continue to fade any rallies as a breach of the 9 day and 18 day MA’s at $98.25/98.15 should signal lower ground. Natural gas picked up 2.7% closing over the 18 day MA for the first time in one month. Scale into longs as a trade over $3.70 should lead to $3.90…trade accordingly. Stocks were virtually unchanged with the Dow and S&P slightly lower and the NASDAQ slightly higher. Our clients have NO long or short exposure outside of their stock portfolios which we wish they would lighten up on as we are trying to build managed futures portfolios for anyone that has $1M plus in the market. Seriously imagine a $150,000-300,000 managed futures portfolio with a 5-10 year track record with relatively low volatility. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Gold failed to follow through closing slightly off in today’s session. $1750 is acting as resistance but on a trade above that level expect $1790. The 40 day MA is acting as a pivot point in March silver at $32.90. If today’s low holds traders can remain long looking for $35. On a breach of $32.50 move back to the sidelines. Traders that are long currencies should remain in their longs but trail stops as the bullish sentiment has waned a bit. The 20 day MA is capping rallies in the Yen…we’re looking for lower trade the next few days to exit remaining put options for clients. Nothing new in softs. Hold a small long in cocoa and look to add once we start moving higher.
Day three of the Treasury declines…those that are short should have stops in 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes just above the 20 day MA’s. After a 50% Fibonacci retracement Euro-dollars were slightly lower today. We are still looking to re-establish shorts in 2013 contracts for clients at higher levels…stay tuned. Mixed bag in agriculture …we are wanting to be a seller at higher levels and remain on the sidelines with most clients. Aggressive traders can be long February live cattle with stops below the 9 day MA at 122.70. Lean hogs resumed their downward move losing 1% today. We feel an interim top is in and would be adding to the position on a trade below 90.00 in February.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

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