My Valentine

Making money in commodities is nice but allot sometime today to spend with loved ones! Crude’s gain today was minute but intra-day prices were at three weeks highs approaching the $102 level. Echoing yesterday’s thoughts we should inch higher near the $104 area in the coming weeks but I do not see much more than that especially in the face of a strengthening greenback. Natural gas was higher by nearly 5% but prices are still 30 cents under support and an area I would feel confident in saying we’re out of the woods. Stocks traded under the 9 day MA but will manage a push to close above that pivot point once again. I want to say we’re exhibiting signs of a top but I learned a long time ago you cannot pick tops or bottoms. As long as the 9 day MA holds on a closing basis I am friendly.
Gold continues to creep lower making its way to the $1675/1690 this week if not next in my opinion. Silver has lost very little ground of late but most of my technical indicators are signaling a bigger correction and if the dollar can gain some momentum that would also support a break. I am expecting March to trade closer to $31 in the coming weeks…trade accordingly. Sugar can be sold with stops above the recent highs in my opinion. Trail stops down on bearish OJ trades. The 50 day MA is acting as mild support but on a breach expect the 100 day MA to come into play about 10 cents beneath current levels. Coffee broke down today as forecast on its way to trade under a$2 for the first time since late 2010 in my opinion. At this moment I would not rule out an additional 5-8% depreciation.
The entire livestock complex was higher by 1-2% today. I currently have no client exposure and may miss this upside move if it happens from here. Grains are a buy from lower levels but until we get a break I would be on the sidelines. The dollar gained for the third consecutive session closing above the 20 day MA for the first time in three weeks. I expect further appreciation and would be a seller of all other crosses. The Yen seems to be the furthest along on its downward move but there should be more to come and the Loonie is the laggard so could be the best potential short. All other crosses could be faded on any advance in my opinion.
Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.