Let’s look at the US Dollar over the last 3.5 years. With the exception of June 2010, when the dollar traded as high as 88.80, the 84/84.50 level has served as stiff resistance. It appears a triple top pattern is being established on the weekly chart over the last three weeks. The horizontal red line […]
Old crop (July) soybeans hit an eight month high after appreciating just better than $2/bushel, high to low, over the last four weeks. And volatility has not been lacking, with an average 44 cent daily trading range over the last several sessions. It appears the bulls are starting to lose control. Long upper wicks, on […]
Let’s check the scorecard. I penned a report on 3/27, just two months ago, titled “Interest Rates – A Ticking time bomb.” In this, I made the bold claim that a bearish play on the Eurodollar has the potential to be the biggest trade of my career. This is not a quick “in and out” […]
Find three charts enclosed in this piece; the NOB spread (long 30-yr bonds/short 10-yr notes), June 30-yr bonds and finally June 10-yr notes. Play your bias with 30-yr bonds as that instrument should move 1.5-3 times the action we see in 10-yr notes. That being said if the trade works as planned traders will make […]
The Nikkei has moved in one direction the last six months but like any party they all come to a conclusion. This to me is a classic case why investors cannot fall asleep at the wheel and after significant gains it generally always makes sense to book profits and manage your expectations as markets do […]
Energy: July Crude oil held its 8 day MA on an inside day. I say lower from here but would only take small bets. My suggested play is short August futures and selling out of the money puts1:1. I’m only looking for $3-4 so if the market delivers cover. RBOB gave up 2% today failing […]
New crop corn futures are off 15% YTD and prices are 23% below their September 7th highs. I do not like picking bottoms, but… I think we are close enough to wade into bullish trade. December 13’ futures traded within 3 cents of contract lows overnight. The latest decline comes from the planting progress farmers […]
The Australian dollar is working on its first positive day in the last 11 sessions. We’ll need today’s close above 0.9736 for this to become a reality. Aussie bulls, and commodity bulls, should look to the long side as we’re far into oversold territory now. As seen below, we appear to be finding mild support… […]
Global food prices rose 1% in April, with levels now only 9% below the peak reached in February 2011, according to the United Nations. This was driven predominantly by a sharp rise in dairy prices. Considering that I can count on one hand how many times my clients and I have traded milk futures… I’m […]
Just before 1pm Chicago time the Yen broke par against the Dollar for the first time since the week of April 6, 2009 (low 98.67). Then the Euro fell out of bed. Then the Swiss got clubbed like a baby seal. The Aussie. The Pound. The Canadian. Everything but the Dollar got crushed. RIGHT AT […]
