A very interesting last 30 days…let’s look at the weekly and daily charts on the Almighty Buck. Let me get this straight the greenback rallied on speculation that a rate hike may happen sooner rather than later; higher rates should equate to a stronger dollar. Yesterday Bernanke set the market straight verbalizing that not so quick should we bake in a rate increase.
The dollar is an integral part of many trading decisions when I decide what commodities to trade, in what direction and even scaling on position size.
Weekly:
U.S. Dollar Index Weekly, July 11, 2013
Take away:
- A potential double top the last 2 weeks
- Is a bearish engulfing candle in the making?
- Will we close under the 20 day MA (light blue line)?
- To see any significant depreciation prices will need to penetrate the up sloping trend line that comes in just below 81.00…white trend line held since summer of 2011.
Daily:
U.S Dollar Index Daily, July 11, 2013
Take away:
- Stochastics have started to roll over
- A gap lower open on Bernanke comments yesterday…perhaps an overreaction?
- Observe the 38.2, 50 & 61.8% Fibonacci levels.
- In May/June prices depreciated 4.4% only to turn around in June/July and appreciate 5.25%.
- A settlement below the 20 day MA (light blue line) puts the control back to the bears in my eyes.
As always, I’m here to discuss specifics and give guidance. Shoot me an email…Give me a call… you can reach me at: mbradbard@rcmam.com or 954-929-9997
Risk Disclaimer: This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities and/ or financial products herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed to be accurate. You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions (“Forex”) before making any trades. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Both RCM Asset Management and the research analyst may have positions in the financial products discussed.
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