DATA HIGHPOINTS FOR THE WEEK: — Australia Employment Data.. Bank of Japan rate meeting & announcement..US Treasury Auctions (3, 10, 30 years)..Japan Machinery Orders… US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes release.. Eurozone, US PPI Data..USDA crop production data.
JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo earnings release on Friday before Market Open.
Data in italics-high potential to influence markets
Actual Data Releases Tuesday-1:30 AM China PPI y/y –2.7%, China CPI y/y 2.7%…8:30 AM UK Industrial Production m/m 0.0%, y/y –2.3%, UK Manufacturing Production m/m -0.8%, y/y -2.9%, UK Trade Balance (Non EU) GBP –4.0 billion, UK Trade Balance (world) GBP -8.49 billion…1:00 PM EST US 3 Year Note Auction ($32 Billion) BID TO COVER 3.35
Wed-12:30 AM Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence…6:00 AM German HICP (Harmonized Consumer Price Index) m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.9 %…6:45 AM France Industrial Production m/m -0.7%, y/y 0.1%, France Manufacturing Production m/m -0.8%, y/y -0.1%…10:30 AM EIA Inventory (Crude Oil, Products, Refinery Capacity) 1:00 PM EST US 10 Year Note Auction ($21 Billion)…2:00 PM EST Release of FOMC minutes from June 18-19th meeting…11:50 PM Japan Key Machinery Orders m/m 1.7%, y/y 2.8%
CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY CALENDAR SLIDE
Market Settlement Prices July 9th 2013
| MARKET | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | NET CHANGE | *Click for delayed update prices |
| Sept E MINI S&P | 1636.75 | 1649.00 | 1635.75 | 1646.00 | +10.00 | E Mini |
| Sept US 10 YR Notes | 125^110 | 125^195 | 125^040 | 125^160 | 07/32 | US 10yr note |
| August Crude Oil | 103.00 | 104.76 | 102.31 | 103.53 | +39 | WTI Crude Oil |
JULY 10TH 2013 MARKET OUTLOOK
EQUITIES…. Sept E Mini S&P’s closed higher again on Tuesday as market participants remain optimistic that 2nd quarter earnings will be strong & offer support that the US economy is continuing on a recovery path.
Alcoa, the world’s largest aluminum producer and perennial kickoff company for earnings season set an initial positive tone as higher than expected demand for aluminum from the aircraft industry seemed to overcome the overall weakness in prices for the base metal. The focus on earnings will increase on Friday, as banking giants JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo are set to report earnings. Market participants will likely be just as focused upon the guidance offered by the banks as the deteriorating interest rate complex over the last quarter will likely be a key topic with regards to the revenue environment for financial institutions. Energy and material shares were the leaders in what was essentially a broad based rally as buyers seem to be taking part in a “Buy the Rumor” mini trend leading up to earnings releases. Near term upside movement in the market also remains supported by the notion that Friday’s employment data was a “perfect storm” with regards to numbers of job created vs. the unemployment figure remaining above the FOMC target level. The foundation of this upside movement likely remains the current path of least resistance and could be vulnerable to downward spikes on fundamental/earnings surprises or disappointments. How the markets choose to digest the realities of earnings will likely be the catalyst of a new trading range over the next few weeks. Look for a possible increase of volatility on Wednesday as FOMC minutes for the June meeting are scheduled to be released.
Some key technical levels to look at for the September E Mini, for support looking at the 1632.75 level, which is just above the 61.8 (red line) Fibonacci retracement level. A break and close below this level could set up a possible downside retracement target of 1624.00. Initial resistance for the contract could be setting up at 1648.50, with a break & close above this level setting up a possible retest of 1654.00 just above the upper daily Keltner Channel. A close above this level puts 1658.00 & 1663.75 back into play as possible upside targets.
Click here for chart of Sept E Mini S&P
TREASURIES-September US 10 year notes moved slightly higher as traders failed to commit one way or another ahead of the release of the FOMC June meeting minutes scheduled for release at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday. The Treasury complex did gain some upward movement as yields continued to remain in relatively attractive levels in the near term and Tuesday’s auction of $32 billion of US 3 year notes was relatively well received with a Bid to Cover of 3.35.
Click here for chart of Sept US 10 Year Notes
CRUDE OIL-September Crude Oil continued higher throughout Tuesday’s session, though it backed off from the highs, as ongoing strength in equities, expectations of ongoing supply draw downs, and a lack of concrete resolutions in Mid East tensions continue to support the path of least resistance for crude oil…which is higher. Expectations are for another strong draw down of WTI supplies on Wednesday’s EIA inventory numbers.
Click here for chart of Sept Crude Oil
CHARTS COURTESY OF Open E Cry ( A division of Gain Financial LLC)
To open an account with me at Great Pacific Trading Company, as well as any questions or thoughts you would like to discuss, e-mail me at rroscelli@gptc.com
About the author-Richard Roscelli has been a member of the futures industry since 1994. His unique background in the Global Futures markets stems from his experience managing trading desks and providing market analysis for major financial institutions and commodity trading advisors.
After earning an MBA in Global Business, Richard is now a co branch manager and licensed broker with Great Pacific Company of Las Vegas. He is a regular contributor to financial publications and websites focused on futures trading and alternative investments.
References
www.ft.com/research/Economic-Calendar
www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary
You can reach me at rroscelli@gptc.com for questions, comments, and information about opening an account with Great Pacific Trading Las Vegas. Follow me on Twitter @richardroscelli
**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Click here FOR VIDEO PRESENTATION OF ECONOMIC CALENDAR…
**The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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