Archive | October, 2015

commodity index daily

Raw Commodity Sector Still Stuck in a Major Rut

The daily bar chart for the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) shows the near-term technical posture for the gauge of the raw commodity sector remains bearish. It’s my bias that this major bust cycle in raw commodities is closer to ending–probably sometime in the first half of 2016. However, if the GSCI drops to a […]

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S&P 500 Futures - Dec 15

Option Queen Letter

We’re back! We apologize to our readers for the great deal of time that has passed since putting out our last letter but are happy to say that we are back in action. If you look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 futures continuation, you will see a large “W” formation. We closed […]

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world map of coffee plantations

Weekly Coffee Perspective

Weather all over again One more FED official stated that the interest rate increase until the year end is expected, mentioning also that it is not a commitment and dependable on the global economy – more of the same, make the lift-off still unknown. Many economists believe a 2015 hike is possible, but a good […]

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Nymex Crude Oil

Nymex Crude Oil Sees Bullish Upside “Breakout” this Week

The Nymex crude oil futures market this week popped higher and hit a five-week high–to produce a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. This is one early clue that crude oil prices could be embarking on a fresh price uptrend. However, the bulls must now confront stiff overhead […]

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Gold crystals

Fractional Reserve Gold Bullion

Q: A roughly 20-year bear market in gold bullion and gold mining shares ended approximately with 9/11. What role, if any, did 9/11 play in this major market turn? A: First of all, my view is that markets are made by human reaction to events. The reaction is a subjective judgement. Objective events do not […]

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Lithium pellets covered in white lithium hydroxide (left) and ingots with a thin layer of black nitride tarnish (right)

Lithium Market Set To Explode – All Eyes Are On Nevada

While other commodities are floundering or completely collapsing in this market, lithium—the critical mineral in the emerging battery gigafactory war—is poised to explode, and going forward Nevada is emerging as the front line in this pending American lithium boom. Most of the world’s lithium comes from Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Australia and China, but American resources […]

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A pure (>99.95%) silver crystal, synthetic electrolytic made with visible dendritic structures. Weight ≈11g. - No gold here

Is Gold a Commodity or Money?

Q: Could you please comment on the question of whether gold is money or a commodity. Many analysts say that money is whatever society has agreed to use as a medium of exchange, and gold no longer performs that function. Furthermore, if gold were money, it could not significantly increase in value as that would […]

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US Coffee futures

Weekly Coffee Perspective

Have we seen the lows? Janet Yellen (two weeks ago) tried to calm down the markets saying that she and most of the FOMC expect a liftoff in 2015, but the growth revision of the Chinese GDP and Friday’s US job number have made investors skeptical about a rate hike this year still. The change […]

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Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)

Timing the Low in Gold

From a purely mental perspective it’s a snap. We know when the low will occur and the gold market will turn from a bear to a bull. It will happen when most market participants expect a higher future price than the then spot price plus the cost to carry. Ludwig von Mises, in Human Action, […]

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