Tag: Arabica
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Reassessing Risks with the U.S. Dollar Strengthening
Donald John Trump was elected the 45th president of the USA holding 290 votes of the Electoral College against 228 earned by former Secretary of State Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton. In the popular vote the democratic candidate won by 668,273 votes, but Trump’s success to gain in key swing states took the majority of the…
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To hike or not to hike, that is the Question
The day after tomorrow, Wednesday September 21st, the FOMC finishes its meeting and market participants see only a 20% chance of a hike to happen, according to Bloomberg. Several analysts share the opinion that a move before the US-presidential elections will not happen and the bets for a December increase of interest rates are fairly…
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Origins Benefiting as their Currencies Slide
Risk assets had a steep decline last Friday after a voting member of the FOMC commented that the economy could overheat if rates remain low. The fall came a day after ECB’s president disappointed the expectations for an extension of the bond buying program of the monetary authority, saying that the committee will study how…
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DXY, Weather and End of Strike Push Coffee Lower
The European Central Bank left rates and its bond buying program unchanged, saying that it will consider adding stimulus later this year once it has a clear picture of the economic impact from the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Comments released last week from the director of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) saying “there…
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Fresh Fundamental News or More Fund Buying
The low yields of bonds, in fact negative for several sovereign ones in the developed World, made analysts and investors to jump on the stock markets with the argument that equities are relatively “cheap” considering the fixed-income returns. The indicator is not the most reliable one as Central Banks have “artificially” inflated the price of…
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Coffee Makes New Highs
In the past eight years monetary-easing from major central banks have provided a long-put for investors that bet on risky assets. The “certainty” that more money would be pumped into the system so far made several liquidation of equity-markets a good buying opportunity – easy to say now. The last threatening event, Brexit vote,…
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(NOT SO) United Kingdom Leaving
The surprising referendum that brought victory for pro-exit of the UK from the European Union took risk assets down and in two days erased the gains of the month and the 2 Q16. One day before the voting started to be counted equities rallied as polls indicated a slightly majority for the “remain” choice, kind…
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Big Swings of Risky Assets
In the past two weeks macro developments provoked big swings of risky assets and in the foreign exchange markets due to uncertainties around central banks’ stance in front of mixed data. In the US the non-farm payroll number of May and the revised figure of April took the Dollar Index to early levels of May,…
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Conies Driving Coffee Markets Higher
The US job market number from April came out below expectations renewing bets that the FED will postpone a rate increase and/or hike less than previously thought. An apparent short-covering of the greenback though has taken the Dollar Index from its lowest level since January 2015, or a rally of 2.4% in four days. Commodity…
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Seasonally NY is Near a Point to Favor Bears
A strong rally of the US dollar at the end of last week encouraged buying of risky assets driving equities and commodities higher. Words from one FOMC member saying that it would be reasonable to call for rate increases this year partially helped to trigger short-covering of dollar’s bears. Chinese exports above expectations in March…