Futures Market Guide

Tag: Commodity Futures Trading Commission

  • Picking a Bottom in Ags – Soybean oil

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    by

    aaron
    in

    The story for months has been slack demand for Agriculture and increasing global production. Hence wheat currently trading under three year lows and corn trading under 2 year lows. Soybean oil has not escaped the black cloud that has been hanging over this sector either as seen on chart below clearly there has been a…

  • As weather abates will Natural Gas respond?

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    by

    aaron
    in

    I’ve pointed this out several times in recent weeks but a sleeping giant was awoken 9 weeks ago. Natural gas has been on a tear from early November adding $1 move in the futures market from the first week of November until peaking in Mid-December just above $4.50. In the last two weeks February has…

  • Coffee Getting support from the Funds

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    by

    aaron
    in

    As of this post coffee prices are higher by 4.44% with prices approaching previous resistance just below the 50 day MA (light blue line) that was challenged last week. Prices appear to be on the rise as money managers bought the dip this week when prices were trading near three weeks lows. I anticipate funds piling into coffee longs next week buying upwards of 10,000 contracts as they re-balance their positions at the…

  • The Loonie…A Broken Wing but it Can Still Fly

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    by

    aaron
    in

    Today is December 5th and it looks like it may be the first positive session in the Canadian dollar in 10 sessions. Future traded to their lowest levels since May of 2010 yesterday but for now it appears .9350 will be the line in the sand in December futures. One cannot look at the Canadian…

  • The Buck Appears to be Appreciating

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    by

    aaron
    in

    I want to revisit the topic of the US dollar as I do feel an interim bottom was established in recent weeks and it appears we will see a rebound in the immediate future. I’ve been calling for this for several weeks but we only got confirmation this week with a close above the 20…

  • A Reversal in the Debt Complex

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    by

    aaron
    in ,

    Since establishing an interim top this has been a one way trade since the beginning of May where the long end and short end of the curve has gotten hit. 30-yr bonds have depreciated 12%, 10-yr notes are lower by 7% and the March 16’ Eurodollar futures are lower by 1.3%. Lets quantify this…what are…

  • Hi-Ho Silver – A Breakout?

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    by

    aaron
    in

    Silver is higher by nearly 5% today trading to its highest levels since 6/19. Since 6/28 when September futures traded as low as $18.17 (33 month low) prices are higher by 17.4%. Two significant developments in the last two trading sessions…a settlement above the 50 day MA (light blue line) which had not occurred since…

  • Cocoa – How NOT being in the Market can make you $$

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    by

    aaron
    in

    First let’s address the move in cocoa today…that had futures higher by 3.19% and intra-day trading to their highest levels in three months. Last week one can see that we found support at the 20 day MA (light blue line) as futures danced that line for five sessions before the acceleration today. Weather related news…

  • FCOJ – A Retracement Ahead

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    by

    aaron
    in

    On the one month relative performance OJ has been the best performer with November futures higher by 12% as of this post. Me being a contrarian I’d like to fade this appreciation with clients. As one can see prices have been running into resistance for the last two weeks just above current trade as identified…

  • Brent/WTI Crude oil Spread

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    by

    aaron
    in

    Buying Brent and selling WTI Crude oil is what will be discussed today. In the September contract this spread is currently trading with Brent carrying a $2.65 premium. Just one week ago we were trading even money in this spread. Every $1 move equates to a $1,000 gain/loss. I’m operating under the influence that we…